Gender-based violence in New Delhi, India: forecast based on secondary data analysis

Abstract

Background: Violence against women is a global phenomenon. Aims: To estimate and forecast cognizable crime against women in New Delhi, India, from 2016 to 2020. Methods: Reported cognizable crime against women in New Delhi for 2009-2015 was extracted for statistical analysis, synthesis and modelling. The cognizable crimes reported are rape, attempt to commit rape, kidnapping and abduction, dowry deaths, assault on women with intent to outrage her modesty, insult to modesty of women, cruelty by husband or his relative, importation of girls from foreign countries, abetment of suicide of women and indecent representation of women. Results: The actual number of registered cases of crime against women ranged from 4251 (2009) to 17 104 (2015). The projected number of cases ranged between 18 991 [95% confidence interval (CI): 13 092-24 889) in 2016 to 28 663 (95% CI: 22 314-35 013)] in 2020. A rising trend in crime against women was noticed in New Delhi, ranging from 204.6 (2016) to 308.8 (2020) per 100 000 women. After witnessing a substantive increase (116.2%) in reported crime against women in New Delhi in 2013, the subsequent actual and projected rise appears to be incremental in nature, with an annual percentage point change ranging between 9% and 18%. Conclusion: Within limitations, it is concluded that the safety of women will continue to be a concern in the near future.

Domestic Violence and Sterilization Skew in India: An Instrumental Variable Analysis

“…Finally, the NFHS-3 was completed in 2006 and the prevalence of DV, contraceptive method use, or covariates may have changed. Notwithstanding, recent studies show that rates of DV (Dwivedi & Sachdeva, 2019; Ram et al, 2019) and female sterilization (Choi et al, 2019; N. C. Sharma, 2018) have been consistently high and have shown an upward trend.…”

Personal wellbeing among adolescents and youth in India

“…This can be explained by the social environment of the participants in India. With 17,000 reported incidents of crime against women in Delhi, which is projected to reach 28,000 in 2020 (Dwivedi and Sachdeva, 2019 ), the city is surely not safe for women. Incidents of serious violence, physical abuse, and rape have been rampant with few internationally notorious gruesome rape cases.…”