GCM-related uncertainty for river flows and inundation under climate change: the Inner Niger Delta

Thompson, J. R.; Crawley, Andrew; Kingston, Daniel G.

doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1117173

Cited by 20 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…ET plays an important role in the hydrological cycle, thus the appropriateness of PET models in climate change impact analysis should be studied and will be beneficial to agriculture and hydrology research [9,10,14].The research of climate change impact analysis depends heavily on the meteorological input data used in hydrological model simulation [37][38][39]. Global Climate Models (GCMs) output provides the basis for related research at various scales, from regional to global [40][41][42]. However, the raw GCM output is rarely used for impact studies directly, due to errors between GCM simulations and observation data that cannot be ignored [43][44][45].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Appropriateness of Potential Evapotranspiration Models for Climate Change Impact Analysis in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, China

Jian

Xuan

et al. 2019

Atmosphere

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Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important element in the water and energy cycle. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is an important measurement of ET. Its accuracy has significant influence on agricultural water management, irrigation planning, and hydrological modelling. However, whether current PET models are applicable under climate change or not, is still a question. In this study, five frequently used PET models were chosen, including one combination model (the FAO Penman-Monteith model, FAO-PM), two temperature-based models (the Blaney-Criddle and the Hargreaves models) and two radiation-based models (the Makkink and the Priestley-Taylor models), to estimate their appropriateness in the historical and future periods under climate change impact on the Yarlung Zangbo river basin, China. Bias correction methods were not only applied to the temperature output of Global Climate Models (GCMs), but also for radiation, humidity, and wind speed. It was demonstrated that the results from the Blaney-Criddle and Makkink models provided better agreement with the PET obtained by the FAO-PM model in the historical period. In the future period, monthly PET estimated by all five models show positive trends. The changes of PET under RCP8.5 are much higher than under RCP2.6. The radiation-based models show better appropriateness than the temperature-based models in the future, as the root mean square error (RMSE) value of the former models is almost half of the latter models. The radiation-based models are recommended for use to estimate PET under climate change in the Yarlung Zangbo river basin.Atmosphere 2019, 10, 453 2 of 24 management and irrigation planning [21][22][23]. A number of models have been proposed to estimate PET and these models can be divided into four categories: (1) Temperature-based models, such as the Blaney-Criddle model [24]; (2) radiation-based models, including the Makkink model [25]; (3) mass transfer-based models, such as the Rohwer model [26]; (4) combined energy-mass balanced models, such as the Penman-Monteith (PM) model [27]. The PM model is used widely and has been commonly adopted as a reference, owing to the fact that it is a physical-based model and combines both energy and mass balances [28][29][30]. Correspondingly, its requirement of climate variables data is much stricter than other models, including relative humidity and wind speed [27]. These climate data may not be available in many regions or even may not be measured at all. Thus, models with less data demand were developed, such as models from categories 2 and 3. These simple models only need temperature data or solar radiation data [31][32][33]. However, they were proposed under specific climate conditions, which may have impact on their applicability for various conditions. Therefore, understanding the behavior of these models has been a major concern.Many studies have compared the performance of different PET models under various regions and under different climate conditions for historical periods [19,[31][32][33][34][35]. Xu and...

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confidence: 99%

Appropriateness of Potential Evapotranspiration Models for Climate Change Impact Analysis in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, China

Jian

Xuan

et al. 2019

Atmosphere

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“…The SWAT models contain customized modules to simulate storage and water surface variations of two major natural water impoundments: the Tonlé Sap in the Mekong River Basin and the Inner Niger Delta in the Niger River Basin. The storage variations of the Tonlé Sap and the Inner Niger Delta were modeled by following the approaches by Kirby et al (2006) and Thompson et al(2016), in which statistical relationships were developed to relate the outflow of the Tonlé Sap to streamflows at Kratie and outflow of the Inner Niger Delta at Diré to flows at Ké-Macina and Bénény Kégny. The water surface areas of the two water impoundments were further calculated using volume-surface relationship developed by Manley (2015) and Ogilvie (2017, personal communication).…”

Section: S2mentioning

confidence: 99%

Supplementary material to "A Coupled Modeling Framework for Sustainable Watershed Management in Transboundary River Basins"

Khan¹,

Yang²,

Xie³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Review of ABM applications Table S1: Selected relevant existing studies of ABM applications in surface water management and ecological modeling Topics Literature Agent types Agents' decisions Agents' goal Hierarchical agents Direct agent interaction Link with other models Watershed management-Surface water Barreteau et al. (2004) farmers farm activities simulate cultivating activities Yes Yes No Berger et al. (2007) water users bid on land/water resources max incomes No Yes Yeshydrological model Brady et al. (2012) farmers farm activities max incomes No Yes No Farolfi et al. (2010) farms/villages water demand simulate water demand No No No Giacomoni et al. (2013) consumers/policy makers water use/water restrict simulate water demand Yes Yes Yes-SWAT Giuliani and Castelletti (2013) reservoirs/delta reservoir operation max HP/delta preservation No Yes No Giuliani et al. (2015) farm/city water use max profit No No No

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“…General circulation models (GCMs) of the ocean and atmosphere are widely used to simulate future climate (Brachet et al, ; Chadwick et al, ; Elshamy, Seierstad, & Sorteberg, ; Thompson, Crawley, & Kingston, ; Wojcik, ). In the Yangtze River Basin, Ju et al () analysed the performance of 22 GCMs for predicting hydrologic response to future climate change under different scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of pre‐season high flows, climate, and the Three Gorges Dam on low flow at the Three Gorges Region, China

Sun

Devineni

et al. 2020

Hydrological Processes

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The efficient operation of a multipurpose reservoir requires information on high and low flows. However, analyses of inflows for high flows and for low flows are typically done independently. In this paper, we considered the joint dependence of the low flow on the preceding high flow volume and duration for the wet season in the Three Gorges region of the Yangtze River Basin in China. High flow volume and duration were found to have a strong association with the annual minimum 7-day flow in Cuntan, Wanxian, and Yichang stations. Furthermore, we identified the Arctic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and snow cover in the Tibetan Plateau to have statistically significant teleconnections with the annual minimum 7-day flow. Bayesian models that consider a different level of pooling of the site by site regressions were then developed for the annual minimum 7-day flow conditional on the climate indices and high flow volume (or duration). The full pooling model performed best, suggesting that a homogeneous regional response is best identified given the global climate predictors. Statistics such as the deviance information criterion and reduction of error, coefficient of efficiency, and coverage rate under cross validation indicate the good performance of the model. Snow cover in the western Tibetan Plateau and high flow volume were identified as the most influential factors of the annual minimum 7-day flow through their impact on water storage in the basin. Recent simulations since June 2003, when the Three Gorges Dam operation started, were used to analyse the effect of dam operation on the annual minimum 7-day flow. A comparison of observations and predictions during the post-dam period demonstrated that the dam operation effectively modifies the annual minimum 7-day flow period to have higher flows. K E Y W O R D S Bayesian model, climate teleconnections, high flow, low flow, risk, Three Gorges Dam

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GCM-related uncertainty for river flows and inundation under climate change: the Inner Niger Delta

Cited by 20 publications

References 56 publications

Appropriateness of Potential Evapotranspiration Models for Climate Change Impact Analysis in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, China

Appropriateness of Potential Evapotranspiration Models for Climate Change Impact Analysis in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, China

Supplementary material to "A Coupled Modeling Framework for Sustainable Watershed Management in Transboundary River Basins"

The effects of pre‐season high flows, climate, and the Three Gorges Dam on low flow at the Three Gorges Region, China

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GCM-related uncertainty for river flows and inundation under climate change: the Inner Niger Delta

Cited by 20 publications

References 56 publications

Appropriateness of Potential Evapotranspiration Models for Climate Change Impact Analysis in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, China

Appropriateness of Potential Evapotranspiration Models for Climate Change Impact Analysis in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, China

Supplementary material to &quot;A Coupled Modeling Framework for Sustainable Watershed Management in Transboundary River Basins&quot;

The effects of pre‐season high flows, climate, and the Three Gorges Dam on low flow at the Three Gorges Region, China

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Supplementary material to "A Coupled Modeling Framework for Sustainable Watershed Management in Transboundary River Basins"