Gas Storage Facility Design Under Uncertainty

Abstract

In the screening and concept selection stages of gas storage projects, many estimates are required to value competing projects and development concepts.These estimates are important because they influence which projects are selected and which concept proceeds into detailed engineering. In most cases, there is uncertainty in all of the estimates. As a result, operators are faced with the complex problem of determining the optimal design. A systematic uncertainty analysis can help operators solve this problem and make better decisions. Ideally, the uncertainty analysis is comprehensive and includes all uncertain variables, and simultaneously accounts for reservoir behavior, facility options, and economic objectives. This thesis proposes and demonstrates a workflow and an integrated optimization model for uncertainty analysis in gas storage. The optimization model is fast-solving and eliminates most constraints on the scope of the uncertainty analysis. Using this or similar workflows and models should facilitate analysis and communication of results within the project team and with other stakeholders.

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