Gas on the Fire: Great Power Alliances and Petrostate Aggression

Abstract

What causes petro-aggression? Conventional wisdom maintains that the regime type of petrostates has significant effects on a likelihood of petrostates launching revisionist MIDs While domestic politics is an important factor that explains the motivation and behavioral patterns of a petrostate, it says little about the international environment under which a petrostate decides to initiate conflicts. Petro-aggression does not take place devoid of concerns for the possible international backlash that its aggression could inflict on itself. One significant factor that presents opportunities and constraints for petro-aggression is a great power alliance. In essence, the great power has strong incentives not to upset the relationship with its client petrostate ally for both strategic and economic reasons, and hence tends not to oppose military adventurism by its ally. Consequently, the petrostate's anticipation of great power inaction or even protection for its revisionist policy creates a moral hazard problem. Overall, by offering favorable circumstances, a great power alliance has a positive effect on petro-aggression. Although not without caveats, our large-n model and case study bear out this conclusion.

Resource curse - Wikipedia

“…[58] A 2016 study argues that petrostates may be emboldened to act more aggressively due to the inability of allied great powers to punish the petrostate. [59] The great powers have strong incentives not to upset the relationship with its client petrostate ally for both strategic and economic reasons. [59] A 2017 study found evidence of the resource curse in the American frontier period of the Western United States in the 19th century (the Wild West).…”

“…[59] The great powers have strong incentives not to upset the relationship with its client petrostate ally for both strategic and economic reasons. [59] A 2017 study found evidence of the resource curse in the American frontier period of the Western United States in the 19th century (the Wild West). [60] The study found that "In places where mineral discoveries occurred before formal institutions were established, there were more homicides per capita historically and the effect has persisted to this day.…”