Fuzzy Rules to Help Predict Rains and Temperatures in a Brazilian Capital State Based on Data Collected from Satellites

Abstract

Featured Application: A hybrid model formed by neural network techniques and fuzzy systems that predicts rainfall and temperatures in the capital of Minas Gerais, Brazil, which contains several river sources essential for the Brazilian economy. The purpose of the paper is to construct a model capable of extracting knowledge from satellite data related to temperatures and rainfall forecast of the analyzed state.Abstract: The forecast for rainfall and temperatures in underdevelope countries can help in the definition of public and private investment strategies in preventive and corrective nature. Water is an essential element for the economy and living things. This study had a main objective to use an intelligent hybrid model capable of extracting fuzzy rules from a historical series of temperatures and rainfall indices of the state of Minas Gerais in Brazil, more specifically in the capital. Because this is state has several rivers fundamental to the Brazilian economy, this study intended to find knowledge in the data of the problem to help public managers and private investors to act dynamically in the prediction of future temperatures and how they can interfere in the decisions related to the population of the state. The results confirm that the intelligent hybrid model can act with efficiency in the generation of predictions about the temperatures and average rainfall indices, being an efficient tool to predict the water situation in the future of this critical state for Brazil. Appl. Sci. 2019, 9, 5476 2 of 30 watersheds critical nationally. Along with several great cities, it has suffered a strong impact from drought [4].In contrast to the lack of water, it has problems with excess: floods and landslides [2]. If a river or stream receives a considerable amount of water from rain and cannot support it, it ends up overflowing and causing floods, which bring with it destruction, damage, and even death.The facts cited above are just some of the impacts that rain has on society. Within this context, this work was developed for the use of neural networks in the forecast of volumetric rainfall, based on a fuzzy rule system, developing a precise forecast, and contributing to the anticipation of possible tragedies s in places that occur phenomena of greater magnitude, as well as helping in a better control of agriculture. Another purpose was to support air and sea transportation, avoiding accidents in their trajectories. Briefly, when anticipating a possible problem, it is also possible to anticipate solutions and reduce their impacts, such as evacuating areas at risk of landslides or flooding [5].Currently, many kinds of research are being developed to apply models of artificial neural networks in rain forecasts, river basins, and water studies. For example, it was applied to the problem of forecasting the flow of the Nile River in Egypt [6], using a temporal series as a reference to compare tests among several prediction methods of neural networks. Besides, there was a study using stochastic autoregressive mean m...

Special Issue on Interdisciplinary Artificial Intelligence: Methods and Applications of Nature-Inspired Computing

“…The model was trained, and after that, an optimization of the input parameters was performed using the particle swarm optimization algorithm. In the second work, de Campos Souza et al [18] presents a fuzzy-based system to extract fuzzy rules from historical data. They applied their system to a rainfall forecasting, specifically for temperature and average rainfall indices.…”