Fuzzy Monte Carlo Simulation and Risk Assessment in Construction

Sadeghi, Naimeh; Fayek, Aminah Robinson; Pedrycz, Witold

doi:10.1111/j.1467-8667.2009.00632.x

Cited by 181 publications

(107 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Many construction project risk assessment methods currently used are comparatively mature tools (Zeng et al, 2007). Monte Carlo Simulation (Sadeghi, 2010), Sensitivity Analysis (White, 1995) …”

Section: Risk Assessment Methods For International Construction Projectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Risks of Asian Development Projects: A Theoretical Framework and Empirical Findings

Lee

Yoonsun

Kim

2013

Journal of Asian Architecture and Building Engineering

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The global construction market has been gradually changing from general contracts to development projects. It is necessary to perform risk management for international construction projects because there can be multiple risks for which the degree of risk can be very high. Although international construction project risk management is important, there has been very little research regarding objective and quantitative risk assessment that reflects the project characteristics and decision-making. Therefore, research into risk assessment in Asia-centered international development projects (IDPs) is necessary. The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze key risk indicators (KRIs) through a proposed risk assessment framework for Asian Development Projects (ADPs). The methods and procedures of this study are as follows: First, quantitative indicators of main risk are identified. Second, critical risk indicators are analyzed and assessed by applying Fuzzy theory and the Analytical Hierarchy Procedure (AHP) methods. Finally, risk response attitudes are suggested and 12 risk indicators are selected according to priority evaluation in ADPs.

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Section: Risk Assessment Methods For International Construction Projectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Risks of Asian Development Projects: A Theoretical Framework and Empirical Findings

Lee

Yoonsun

Kim

2013

Journal of Asian Architecture and Building Engineering

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“…Setting λ = 3 and using Equation (20), the weight of risk criteria C 1 , C 2 , and C 3 for dimension D 1 relative to C 6 of dimension D 2 are calculated as (0.373, 0.347, 0.280) T , respectively.…”

Section: Calculating Risk Based Criteria Weight Using D-anp Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With respect to the identification of risk criteria, a methodology is needed to sort and prioritise criteria weights, based on specific environments and domain experts' judgment. In the real world, since various uncertainties occur in the decision-making process due to subjective and qualitative judgment of decision-makers (DMs), so it is essential to develop a more optimised technique that can handle various types of uncertainties [15,[20][21][22][23][24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Hybrid MCDM Technique for Risk Management in Construction Projects

et al. 2018

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Multi-stakeholder based construction projects are subject to potential risk factors due to dynamic business environment and stakeholders' lack of knowledge. When solving project management tasks, it is necessary to quantify the main risk indicators of the projects. Managing these requires suitable risk mitigation strategies to evaluate and analyse their severity. The existence of information asymmetry also causes difficulties with achieving Pareto efficiency. Hence, to ensure balanced satisfaction of all participants, risk evaluation of these projects can be considered as an important part of the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) process. In real-life problems, evaluation of project risks is often uncertain and even incomplete, and the prevailing methodologies fail to handle such situations. To address the problem, this paper extends the analytical network process (ANP) methodology in the D numbers domain to handle three types of ambiguous information's, viz. complete, uncertain, and incomplete, and assesses the weight of risk criteria. The D numbers based approach overcomes the deficiencies of the exclusiveness hypothesis and completeness constraint of Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory. Here, preference ratings of the decision matrix for each decision-maker are determined using a D numbers extended consistent fuzzy preference relation (D-CFPR). An extended multi-attributive border approximation area comparison (MABAC) method in D numbers is then developed to rank and select the best alternative risk response strategy. Finally, an illustrative example from construction sector is presented to check the feasibility of the proposed approach. For checking the reliability of alternative ranking, a comparative analysis is performed with different MCDM approaches in D numbers domain. Based on different criteria weights, a sensitivity analysis of obtained ranking of the hybrid D-ANP-MABAC model is performed to verify the robustness of the proposed method.

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“…The first phase of the Delphi-AHP process has been exploration of the disinfection treatments and criteria under discussion between experts. At the beginning of the project, there are many incidences where no information is available, which is why in these early stages expert judgment is especially useful [20]. The experts were selected among wastewater treatment engineers and project managers with diverse experience in the design, construction, control and operation of wastewater treatment plants.…”

Section: Design Of the Decision Hierarchy Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

Selecting a Sustainable Disinfection Technique for Wastewater Reuse Projects

Curiel-Esparza

Cuenca-Ruiz

Martin-Utrillas

et al. 2014

Water

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This paper presents an application of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) by integrating a Delphi process for selecting the best sustainable disinfection technique for wastewater reuse projects. The proposed methodology provides project managers a tool to evaluate problems with multiple criteria and multiple alternatives which involve non-commeasurable decision criteria, with expert opinions playing a major role in the selection of these treatment technologies. Five disinfection techniques for wastewater reuse have been evaluated for each of the nine criteria weighted according to the opinions of consulted experts. Finally, the VIKOR method has been applied to determine a compromise solution, and to establish the stability of the results. Therefore, the expert system proposed to select the optimal disinfection alternative is a hybrid method combining the AHP with the Delphi method and the VIKOR technique, which is shown to be appropriate in realistic scenarios where multiple stakeholders are involved in the selection of a sustainable disinfection technique for wastewater reuse projects.

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Fuzzy Monte Carlo Simulation and Risk Assessment in Construction

Cited by 181 publications

References 32 publications

Assessing the Risks of Asian Development Projects: A Theoretical Framework and Empirical Findings

Assessing the Risks of Asian Development Projects: A Theoretical Framework and Empirical Findings

A Hybrid MCDM Technique for Risk Management in Construction Projects

Selecting a Sustainable Disinfection Technique for Wastewater Reuse Projects

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