Future vulnerability of marine biodiversity compared with contemporary and past changes

Beaugrand, Grégory; Edwards, Martin; Raybaud, Virginie; Goberville, Éric; Kirby, Richard R.

doi:10.1038/nclimate2650

Cited by 136 publications

(161 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…The potential for irreversible change in these phytoplankton communities in response to future, geologically abrupt warming in southern high latitudes-a consequence of polar amplification of global warming-remains an open question. This question will be addressed by a growing and diverse body of evidence that spans geological to ecological timescales, such as data on past, regional-, and planetary-scale ecological state changes (37), ecological niche models that are informed by both theory and empirical observations (3,38), observations of adaptive evolution in phytoplankton (39,40), and physiological experiments (41).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Southern Ocean phytoplankton turnover in response to stepwise Antarctic cooling over the past 15 million years

Crampton

Cody

Levy

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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It is not clear how Southern Ocean phytoplankton communities, which form the base of the marine food web and are a crucial element of the carbon cycle, respond to major environmental disturbance. Here, we use a new model ensemble reconstruction of diatom speciation and extinction rates to examine phytoplankton response to climate change in the southern high latitudes over the past 15 My. We identify five major episodes of species turnover (origination rate plus extinction rate) that were coincident with times of cooling in southern high-latitude climate, Antarctic ice sheet growth across the continental shelves, and associated seasonal sea-ice expansion across the Southern Ocean. We infer that past plankton turnover occurred when a warmer-than-present climate was terminated by a major period of glaciation that resulted in loss of open-ocean habitat south of the polar front, driving non-ice adapted diatoms to regional or global extinction. These findings suggest, therefore, that Southern Ocean phytoplankton communities tolerate "baseline" variability on glacial-interglacial timescales but are sensitive to large-scale changes in mean climate state driven by a combination of long-period variations in orbital forcing and atmospheric carbon dioxide perturbations.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Southern Ocean phytoplankton turnover in response to stepwise Antarctic cooling over the past 15 million years

Crampton

Cody

Levy

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…It is also important to keep in mind that corals are also currently threatened by numerous other environmental pressures (global warming, pollution, UV, destructive fishing practices, etc …). Integrative multispecies studies are needed to evaluate the vulnerability (Beaugrand et al, 2015) of coral reefs to all environmental changes that will be encountered by the end of the century.…”

Section: Accepted Manuscript 21mentioning

confidence: 99%

Computing the carbonate chemistry of the coral calcifying medium and its response to ocean acidification

Raybaud

Tambutté

Ferrier‐Pagés

et al. 2017

Journal of Theoretical Biology

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Critical to determining vulnerability or resilience of reef corals to Ocean Acidification (OA) is a clearer understanding of the extent to which corals can control carbonate chemistry in their Extracellular Calcifying Medium (ECM) where the CaCO 3 skeleton is produced. Here, we employ a mathematical framework to calculate ECM aragonite saturation state (Ω arag.(ECM) and carbonate system ion concentration using measurements of calcification rate, seawater characteristics (temperature, salinity and pH) and ECM pH (pH (ECM) )). Our calculations of ECM carbonate chemistry at current-day seawater pH, indicate that Ω arag.(ECM) ranges from ~10 to 38 (mean 20.41), i.e. about 5 to 6-fold higher than seawater. Accordingly, Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) and Total Alkalinity (TA) were calculated to be around 3 times higher in the ECM than in seawater. We also assessed the effects of acidification on ECM chemical properties of the coral Stylophora pistillata. At reduced seawater pH our calculations indicate that Ω arag.(ECM) remains almost constant. DIC (ECM) and TA (ECM) gradually increase as seawater pH declines, reaching values about 5 to 6-fold higher than in seawater, respectively for DIC and TA. We propose that these ECM characteristics buffer the effect of acidification and explain why certain corals continue to produce CaCO 3 even when seawater chemistry is less favourable.

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“…Global projections for the response of marine organisms to climate change based upon pelagic species and/or sea surface temperature data show the Southern Ocean (south of the PF) to be a hotspot of species turnover, local extinction and invasion 8,9 and a loss of species richness 10 . Benthic animals are, in terms of numbers of species, by far the richest component of Antarctic biodiversity 11 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

More losers than winners in a century of future Southern Ocean seafloor warming

2017

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The waters of the Southern Ocean are projected to warm over the coming century, with potential adverse consequences for native cold-adapted organisms. Warming waters have caused temperate marine species to shift their ranges poleward. The seafloor animals of the Southern Ocean shelf have long been isolated by the deep ocean surrounding Antarctica and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with little scope for southward migration. How these largely endemic species will react to future projected warming is unknown. By considering 963 invertebrate species, we show that within the current century, warming temperatures alone are unlikely to result in wholesale extinction or invasion affecting Antarctic seafloor life. However, 79% of Antarctica's endemic species do face a significant reduction in suitable temperature habitat (an average 12% reduction). Our findings highlight the species and regions most likely to respond significantly (negatively and positively) to warming and have important implications for future management of the region.

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Future vulnerability of marine biodiversity compared with contemporary and past changes

Cited by 136 publications

References 63 publications

Southern Ocean phytoplankton turnover in response to stepwise Antarctic cooling over the past 15 million years

Southern Ocean phytoplankton turnover in response to stepwise Antarctic cooling over the past 15 million years

Computing the carbonate chemistry of the coral calcifying medium and its response to ocean acidification

More losers than winners in a century of future Southern Ocean seafloor warming

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