Future trends of water resources and influences on agriculture in China

Abstract

Water resources are indispensable for all social-economic activities and ecosystem functions. In addition, changes in water resources have great significance for agricultural production. This paper uses five global climate models from CMIP5 to evaluate the future spatiotemporal variation in water resources in China under four RCP scenarios. The results show that the available precipitation significantly decreases due to evapotranspiration. Comparing the four RCP scenarios, the national average of the available precipitation is the highest under the RCP 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios, followed by that under the RCP 8.5 scenario. In terms of spatial distribution, the amount of available precipitation shows a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. Regarding temporal changes, the available precipitation under RCP 8.5 exhibits a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, while the available precipitation under the RCP 6.0 scenario exhibits a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. Under the RCP 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios, the available precipitation increases, and the RCP 4.5 scenario has a higher rate of increase than that of RCP 2.6. In the context of climate change, changes in water resources and temperature cause widespread increases in potential agricultural productivity around Hu's line, especially in southwestern China. However, the potential agricultural productivity decreases in a large area of southeastern China. Hu's line has a partial breakthrough in the locking of agriculture, mainly in eastern Tibet, western Sichuan, northern Yunnan and northwestern Inner Mongolia. The results provide a reference for the management and deployment of future water resources and can aid in agricultural production in China.

Assessment of Changes in Agroclimatic Resources of the Republic of Bashkortostan (Russia) under the Context of Global Warming

“…A large amount of precipitation in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to the RCP 6.0 scenario was also detected for other regions, for example, for China. It is assumed that the amount of precipitation is influenced by evotranspiration [66]. For the UK, there is also a lower value of precipitation for the RCP 6.0 scenario in some areas compared to the RCP 8.5 scenario.…”

Prediction of Eco-Environmental Vulnerability in Mainland China under the Future Scenarios

“…In terms of data source, the simulated atmospheric climate data were utilized in this study, including five models (MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorES1-M, IPSL-CM5A-LR, GFDL-ESM 2M and HadGEM2-ES). All of them originated from the ISI-MIP, which have been validated effectively [61,62], and widely used in studies related climate change [59,60,63,64]. In order to reduce the model uncertainty, we averaged these five models at daily time steps to eliminate outliers and then calculated indicators used for our assessment index system.…”

Impact of water resources variation on winter–spring rice yield in the upper Vietnamese Mekong Delta: A case study of An Giang Province

“…Many deltas and countries worldwide are facing dynamic changes in water resources, which greatly affect the output of hydroelectricity, agriculture, fisheries, aquaculture, industry and people's livelihoods (Heerspink et al, 2020; Lin & Qi, 2017; Moshir Panahi et al, 2020; Srivastava et al, 2014; Zhao & Wang, 2020). According to statistics over the past 37 years, water resources of the Amazon Delta, the largest in the world with an area of 6 million km 2 , have undergone drastic change, such as the trend of spatial variation in rainfall.…”