Future Temperature‐Related Deaths in the U.S.: The Impact of Climate Change, Demographics, and Adaptation

Abstract

Mortality due to extreme temperatures is one of the most worrying impacts of climate change. In this analysis, we use historic mortality and temperature data from 106 cities in the United States to develop a model that predicts deaths attributable to temperature. With this model and projections of future temperature from climate models, we estimate temperature‐related deaths in the United States due to climate change, changing demographics, and adaptation. We find that temperature‐related deaths increase rapidly as the climate warms, but this is mainly due to an expanding and aging population. For global average warming below 3°C above pre‐industrial levels, we find that climate change slightly reduces temperature‐related mortality in the U.S. because the reduction of cold‐related mortality exceeds the increase in heat‐related deaths. Above 3°C warming, whether the increase in heat‐related deaths exceeds the decrease in cold‐related deaths depends on the level of adaptation. Southern U.S. cities are already well adapted to hot temperatures and the reduction of cold‐related mortality drives overall lower mortality. Cities in the Northern U.S. are not well adapted to high temperatures, so the increase in heat‐related mortality exceeds the reduction in cold‐related mortality. Thus, while the total number of climate‐related mortality may not change much, climate change will shift mortality in the U.S. to higher latitudes.

Urban Land Surface Temperature Downscaling in Chicago: Addressing Ethnic Inequality and Gentrification

“…Although LST is not a direct indicator of human exposure to high temperatures, its relevance as a proxy is supported by the previous research on thermal comfort [70][71][72]. Given the previous research indicating the limited healthcare access for Hispanic/Latino communities in Chicago [73], the observed temperature extremes could disproportionately amplify the risk of temperature-related health issues within these populations [74,75]. Furthermore, in Chicago, gentrification frequently impacts Hispanic/Latino communities [76][77][78], a process associated with reduced access to green spaces [79] that can increase LST [80][81][82] and exacerbate health outcomes [83].…”

Effect of Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors on Increased Early Childhood Blood Lead Levels: A Case Study in Chicago

“…Furthermore, the association between increased LP rates and high LST identified in this study is a significant contribution to the area of climate change and public health. Numerous previous studies have addressed the repercussions of rising temperatures on health outcomes, focusing on aspects such as temperature-related mortality [67][68][69], the spread of vector-borne diseases [70][71][72][73], mental health [74][75][76][77], and respiratory conditions [78][79][80][81]. However, this research stands out by establishing a novel link between elevated temperatures and heightened LP rates.…”

Improved Surface Urban Heat Impact Assessment Using GOES Satellite Data: A Comparative Study With ERA‐5

“…Given ERA-5's biases, relying on it for estimating extreme LST events will likely underestimate their true magnitude. This has implications for studies that have used it to estimate the impacts from extreme heat (Lee & Dessler, 2023).…”

“…Reanalysis temperature data, such as the ERA‐5 Land data (Muñoz‐Sabater et al., 2021), have been widely used in studies of extreme heat (Ali et al., 2022; Lee & Dessler, 2023; Martinez & Iglesias, 2022; Raymond et al., 2020). Their primary advantage is the gridded format, lack of missing values, and the physical consistency provided by the underlying forecast model used in the data assimilation procedure.…”

“…Second, given the significant contribution of SUHII to elevated city‐level temperatures, it is imperative to assess how effectively reanalysis data sets capture this phenomenon (Hsu et al., 2021; Li et al., 2017). Third, the accurate representation of extreme temperature events is crucial, as these events can have significant impacts on human health and city infrastructure (Lee & Dessler, 2023; Ma et al., 2015; Santágata et al., 2017; Sheridan & Allen, 2015; Stone Jr et al., 2021). Lastly, gauging the extent of population exposure to temperature extremes allows for an evaluation of public health risks and targeted interventions (Freychet et al., 2022; Jones et al., 2015; Tuholske et al., 2021).…”