Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change

Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.; Stroh, Esther D.; Struckhoff, Matthew A.; Whittier, Joanna B.

doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2156-8

Cited by 20 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Few studies have estimated future population exposures to wildfire smoke due to climate change, despite many studies projecting higher wildfire risk [48][49][50]. Mills et al [50] project that tens of millions of people in the continental US will be exposed to wildfire smoke at least once per 20-year period in the mid-and late-21st century under two climate change scenarios.…”

Section: Future Impacts Due To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Wildfire smoke exposure under climate change

Reid¹,

Maestas

2019

Current Opinion in Pulmonary Medicine

113

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Purpose of review-In this review, we describe the current status of the literature regarding respiratory health related to wildfire smoke exposure, anticipated future impacts under a changing climate, and strategies to reduce respiratory health impacts of wildfire smoke. Recent Findings-Recent findings confirm associations between wildfire smoke exposure and respiratory health outcomes, with the clearest evidence for exacerbations of asthma. Although previous evidence showed a clear association between wildfire smoke and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, findings from recent studies are more mixed. Current evidence in support of an association between respiratory infections and wildfire smoke exposure is also mixed. The only study to investigate long-term respiratory health impacts of wildfire smoke demonstrated decreases in lung function ten years after exposure though this finding was only in males who were young adults during the 1997 Indonesian fires. Few studies have estimated future health impacts of wildfires under likely climate change scenarios. Summary-Wildfire activity has been increasing over the past several decades and is likely to continue to do so as climate change progresses, which, combined with a growing population, means that population exposure to and respiratory health impacts of wildfire smoke is likely to grow in the future. More research is needed to understand which population subgroups are most vulnerable to wildfire smoke exposure and the long-term respiratory health impacts of these high pollution events.

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Section: Future Impacts Due To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Wildfire smoke exposure under climate change

Reid¹,

Maestas

2019

Current Opinion in Pulmonary Medicine

113

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“…Collectively, climate change may have substantial ecological impacts on net primary production (NPP), species range distributions, plant community composition, including woody plant cover, and the provision of diverse ecosystem services (Polley et al 2013, Conant et al 2018, Kloesel et al 2018). Wildfire frequency and extent have increased in the region during the past several decades (Barger et al 2011, Donovan et al 2017, Wilcox et al 2018), and projections for greater interannual precipitation variability in the Southern and Central Plains suggest that this trend is likely to continue (Weatherly and Rosenbaum 2017, Stambaugh et al 2018). The consequences of climate change will both directly and indirectly impact human livelihoods and rural economies by altering the economic viability of dryland cropping and rangeland beef cattle production (Shafer et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential natural vegetation and NPP responses to future climates in the U.S. Great Plains

2020

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Asymmetric climate projections throughout the U.S. Great Plains may intensify the existing latitudinal temperature gradient and magnify the longitudinal precipitation gradient. These potential changes present a unique challenge to understanding the ecological consequences of future climates in the region. Here we investigate how climate change may affect the spatio-temporal patterns of potential natural vegetation types (PVT) and net primary production (NPP) throughout the 21st century with the global dynamic vegetation model MC2. Simulations were driven by projected climate variables from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. MC2 simulated C3 and C4 grassland, shrubland, forest, and woodland (shrubland + forest) PVTs, and total NPP for each PVT. The largest increases in woodland and grassland NPP occurred in the Northern Plains (17.5% and 4.7%), followed by the Central Plains (10.6% and 0.0%), while NPP in the Southern Plains remained unchanged compared to historic means (1981-2010). A shift from grassland to woodland in the Northern and Central Plains further affected regional NPP; regional woodland NPP increased 72% and 26% in the Northern and Central Plains, respectively, while regional grassland NPP decreased 18% and 12%, respectively. The most pronounced shift in PVT was associated with increasing, rather than decreasing, mean annual precipitation in the Northern Plains where grassland contracted in response to westward expansion of woodland. C3 grassland was gradually replaced by C4 grassland in the Northern Plains by 2080, and only a trace remained at centuries end. C3 grassland decreased to a trace amount ca. 2060 in the Central Plains, while C4 grassland increased slightly. The relative stability of PVTs in the Southern Plains suggests that species and functional trait diversity may buffer grassland responses to future climates by providing the capacity for species reordering. The asymmetric response of simulated vegetation and NPP to 21st century climate change suggests that the provision of ecosystem services-beef cattle production, carbon sequestration, and grassland bird habitat-will be modified in distinct ways along a latitudinal gradient throughout the Great Plains.

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“…Aunque los incendios forestales se producen de forma natural, el cambio climático y otras influencias humanas han aumentado su probabilidad (enfoque en los incendios forestales del occidente; KM 28.5; Figura A4.14) 69 . Se proyecta que los incendios forestales aumenten en muchas regiones durante el próximo siglo (KM 27.2) 70,71,72,73 . Los humos contaminantes emitidos por los incendios forestales afectan negativamente la salud humana, la visibilidad y la generación de energía solar 74,75 .…”

Section: Mensaje Clave 142 El Aumento Del Humo De Los Incendios Fores...unclassified

Cap. 14. Calidad del aire. En: La Quinta Evaluación Nacional del Clima

2023

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Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change

Cited by 20 publications

References 33 publications

Wildfire smoke exposure under climate change

Wildfire smoke exposure under climate change

Potential natural vegetation and NPP responses to future climates in the U.S. Great Plains

Cap. 14. Calidad del aire. En: La Quinta Evaluación Nacional del Clima

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