Future scenarios as a tool for collaboration in forest communities

Abstract

Forest devolution is meant to provide communities with greater decision-making power over the use and future of tropical forests. However, devolution policies have not always had the intended effect; in some cases they have caused or furthered the disenfranchisement of the poor, the creation of open access conditions, resource conflict and forest degradation. These problems are likely to arise when forest communities are at a disadvantage when interacting with other local players and are unprepared for their new opportunities and responsibilities due to their physical remoteness, cultural isolation, low literacy rates or lack of experience in formal planning and negotiation. This paper discusses how a participatory method to facilitate thinking about the future -called future scenarios -can help change the way forest communities and local governments interact. The paper reviews a growing body of literature on future scenarios and shares first-hand experiences with future scenarios in forest communities in the northern Bolivian Amazon and the central provinces of Vietnam. It finds that under the right conditions, the use of future scenarios allows forest communities to collaborate more effectively with local government, better assume responsibilities when given control over forests under devolution schemes and self-organize to benefit from the opportunities that communal control over forests offers. Future scenarios help communities think about dependency, vulnerabilities and ways to prepare for the future; the methods develop organizational capacity and encourage internal democratic processes and planning. Community leaders become more vocal and assertive in meetings with local government, and marginalized groups within communities, such as women or the poorest segments, make their voices heard. However, the methods are less effective when facilitation skills are not available or where government or other interests are threatened by local constituents. Future scenarios are not without their pitfalls and do not work in all situations, but given the appropriate context they can create "break-through moments" that improve collaboration between communities and local officials.

‘Strange changes’: Indigenous perspectives of climate change and adaptation in NE Arnhem Land (Australia)

“…Scenario building was commonly used to encourage consideration of future changes and understand preferred futures (Evans et al, 2008). Video recording, and interactive DVDs (compiled as part of research) were used to help organise and present results, verify data with participants, and later to communicate perspectives to other stakeholders (such as policy makers and researchers; Petheram et al, unpublished b).…”

Exploring Futures of Ecosystem Services in Cultural Landscapes through Participatory Scenario Development in the Swabian Alb, Germany.

“…The process began with a 3-d preparatory meeting in which all researchers took part, led by an experienced scenario trainer. Here, the key steps of the scenario process were defined as: (a) identifying the driving forces influencing the communities, (b) building contrasting narratives about potential alternative futures, (c) refining the narratives, (d) discussing scenario impacts on local communities, and (e) developing management strategies (Evans et al 2006(Evans et al , 2008. Our approach was inspired by preceding local-scale scenario development in the context of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (e.g., Peterson et al 2003, Palomo et al 2011.…”

“…"Scenario techniques" are one way of fostering the selforganization and empowerment of stakeholders, in pursuit of the renewal of cultural landscapes (Wollenberg et al 2000, Evans et al 2008). Scenarios, defined as "plausible descriptions of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces" (International Panel on Climate Change 2012), can be used: (1) to enable managers to better understand the forces driving landscape change and work with landscape stakeholders, as well as (2) to improve adaptive capacity, not only by responding to landscape changes, but also by anticipating them.…”

Incorporating Agency Perspective into Community Forestry Analysis

“…Although experiments are still limited, research findings inform that accommodating collaboration and social learning among actors is essential for successful community forestry processes to be developed. Further, to accommodate appropriate collaboration and social learning in the processes, the involvement of a skillful facilitator is often indispensable (Colfer 2005;Fisher et al 2007;Guijt 2007;Evans et al 2008).…”