Future Property Risk Estimation For Wildfire In Louisiana, USA

Abstract

Background: Wildfire is an important but understudied natural hazard. As with other natural hazards, wildfire research is all too often conducted at too broad a spatial scale to identify local or regional patterns. This study addresses these gaps by examining the current and future wildfire property risk at the census-block level in Louisiana, a U.S. state with relatively dense population and substantial vulnerability to loss from this hazard, despite its wet climate. Here wildfire risk is defined as the product of exposure and vulnerability to the hazard, where exposure is a function of the historical and anticipated future wildfire frequency and extent, and the latter is a function of population, structure and content property value, damage probability, and percent of property damaged. Results: Historical (1992−2015) average annual statewide property loss due to wildfire was $5,556,389 (2010$), with the greatest risk to wildfire in southwestern inland, east-central, extreme northwestern, and coastal southwestern Louisiana. Based on existing climate and environmental model output, this research projects that wildfire will increase by 25 percent by 2050 in Louisiana from current values. When combined with projections of population and property value, it is determined that the geographic distribution of risk by 2050 will remain similar to that today – with highest risk in southwestern inland Louisiana and east-central Louisiana. However, the magnitude of risk will increase across the state, especially in those areas. Projected annual loss will be $11,167,496 by 2050 (2010$) due to population growth, intensification of development at the wildland-urban interface, and climate change. The wildfire-induced property damage is notable because it is projected to increase by 101 percent. These values do not include crop, forestry, or indirect losses (e.g., cost of evacuation and missed time at work), which are likely to be substantial. Conclusions: The results suggest that increased efforts are needed to contain wildfires, to reduce the future risk. Otherwise, wildfire managers, environmental planners, actuaries, community leaders, and individual property owners in Louisiana will need to anticipate and budget for additional efforts to mitigate the economic (and presumably other) impacts associated with a substantial and increasing hazard that often goes underestimated.

Flood risk assessment for residences at the neighborhood scale by owner/occupant type and first-floor height

“…Floods are among the most severe and frequently occurring natural disasters (Tariq and van de Giesen, 2012 ; Sastry, 2021 ; Mostafiz et al, 2022a ) and cause significant human and economic losses (Tate et al, 2014 ). For example, direct damage from flooding in the U.S.A. has increased to $17 billion per year (Association of State Floodplain Managers, 2020 ).…”

A data-driven spatial approach to characterize the flood hazard

“…The properties inside the shaded X Zone are considered to have "moderate" flood risk whereas properties inside the unshaded X Zone are labeled as being subjected to "minimal" flood risk (FEMA, 2005), even though the precise risk throughout the zone is currently unknown. The need for greater quantitative techniques is obvious, so that citizen constituents and government leaders are more aware of the risks that they and their communities face (Mostafiz et al, 2022b).…”

FloodSafeHome: evaluating financial benefits and savings of freeboard for improved decision-making in flood risk mitigation

“…Flood zones are the geographic areas defined by FEMA according to the level of flood risk (Al . Flood parameters are the site-specific location (u) and scale (α) parameters that define the Gumbel extreme value distribution function (Mostafiz et al, 2021a(Mostafiz et al, , 2022bRahim et al, 2021;Mostafiz, 2022). BFE is taken as the expected depth of the 1% annual chance flood (i.e., 100-year flood), where the FFE or first-floor height (FFH) is generally located (FEMA, 2008).…”