Future projections of temperature and precipitation climatology for CORDEX-MENA domain using RegCM4.4

Öztürk, Tuğba; Turp, M. Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, M. Levent

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.02.009

Cited by 77 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…Till the 1990s even some cooling in the winter was observed in contrast to significant summer warming (Ben-Gai et al, 1999). Furthermore, earlier GCM and RCM projections of mean seasonal temperatures in the MENA domain (e.g., Laprise et al, 2013;Lelieveld et al, 2016;Ozturk et al, 2018) have suggested that the strongest increase in mean temperature will take place in the summer season using ≥50 km resolution simulations. Hochman et al (2017a) have showed that the higher 8 km resolution better reproduces the maximum temperature, due to better simulation of the sea-land breeze, especially in summer.…”

Section: Projections Of Seasonal Mean Temperature and Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The RCM COSMO-CLM has been used to perform two simulations over the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment Middle East North Africa (CORDEX-MENA; e.g., Ozturk et al, 2018;Bucchignani et al, 2018) domain ( Figure 1a; 27 W-76 E, 7 S-45 N) defined in the frame of the CORDEX initiative (Giorgi et al, 2009) at spatial resolutions of 0.44 (~50 km) and 0.22 (~25 km). The domain includes North Africa, southern Europe and the whole Arabian Peninsula, offering considerable challenges for assessing and understanding future local climate change, due to its large size, including highland areas, wide coastal areas and deserts.…”

Section: Data and Setup Of Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A pronounced increase in the mean temperature is predicted throughout the entire domain with peaks of up to~2.5 C (Figure 4, top row). Furthermore, earlier GCM and RCM projections of mean seasonal temperatures in the MENA domain (e.g., Laprise et al, 2013;Lelieveld et al, 2016;Ozturk et al, 2018) have suggested that the strongest increase in mean temperature will take place in the summer season using ≥50 km resolution simulations. In spring (MAM) a west-east gradient is found showing larger temperature increases in the eastern part of the domain as compared with the western part, a trend seen also for the autumn, and partly for the winter.…”

Section: Projections Of Seasonal Mean Temperature and Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

High‐resolution projection of climate change and extremity over Israel using COSMO‐CLM

Hochman

Mercogliano

Alpert

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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High‐resolution climate projections over Israel (about 8 km) have been obtained with the regional model COSMO‐CLM, nested into the CORDEX‐MENA simulations at 25 km resolution. This simulation provides high‐resolution spatial variability of total precipitation and precipitation intensity. Projections are presented not only in terms of average properties, but also using a subset of extreme temperature and precipitation indices from the standard Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) for the period 2041–2070 with respect to 1981–2010 (RCP4.5). A general increase in seasonal mean temperature is projected throughout the domain with peaks of ~2.5 °C, especially in winter and autumn. Extreme temperature indices show increases, larger in the minimum than in the maximum temperatures. Regarding total seasonal precipitation, decreases were found in the north and central Mediterranean climate parts of Israel, with reductions reaching ~40%, and increases of the same percentage in the most southern arid parts during winter and spring. An increase in precipitation intensity is shown mostly for the southern arid part of the region, with some indications of extremity also in the north. This spatial pattern probably results from a decrease in cyclones’ occurrences, which mainly influences the northern and central parts of Israel, and an increase in convective activity in the south. The outcome of this study can serve as a basis for priority setting and policy formulation towards better climate adaptation.

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Section: Projections Of Seasonal Mean Temperature and Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data and Setup Of Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Projections Of Seasonal Mean Temperature and Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

High‐resolution projection of climate change and extremity over Israel using COSMO‐CLM

Hochman

Mercogliano

Alpert

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…According to projections, arid and semiarid regions are expected to expand in a hypothetical warmer world (e.g., Lu et al 2007;Lelieveld et al 2016;Huang et al 2017;Ozturk et al 2018) and may experience more extreme weather conditions in the future (e.g., Feng et al 2014). This makes it imperative to correctly simulate specific extreme weather events and better understand the limitations of the numerical models used.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The underperformance over arid regions is not restricted to WRF. For example, Ozturk et al (2012) ran RegCM version 4 (Giorgi et al 2012) over Central Asia and concluded that it overestimates the surface temperature in the desert regions of southwestern Asia in the warm season and underpredicts it in the cold season. This model also predicts air temperatures a couple of degrees higher than those observed in the boreal summer season in the North African deserts (Konare et al 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Analysis of the Performance of WRF and NICAM in a Hyperarid Environment

Fonseca

Thota

Temimi

et al. 2020

Weather and Forecasting

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The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) are forced with the Global Forecast System (GFS) data and run over the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for two 4-day periods: one in the cold season (16–18 December 2017) and another in the warm season (13–15 April 2018). The models’ performance is evaluated against four observational datasets: weather station observations, eddy-covariance flux measurements at Al Ain, microwave radiometer–derived temperature profile, and twice-daily radiosonde measurements at Abu Dhabi. An overestimation of the daily mean air temperature by 1°–3°C is noticed for both models and periods. This warm bias is attributed to the reduced cloud cover and resulting increased surface downward shortwave radiation flux. A comparison with the eddy-covariance data suggested that both models also underestimate the observed albedo. However, when the models predict heavier amounts of precipitation, they tend to be colder than observations, typically by 2°–3°C. NICAM and WRF overpredict the strength of the near-surface wind speed at all weather stations by roughly 1–3 m s−1, which has been attributed to a poor representation of its subgrid-scale fluctuations and surface drag parameterization. WRF tends to be wetter and NICAM drier than the station observations, possibly because of differences in the cloud microphysics schemes. While the performance of both models for the near-surface fields is comparable, NICAM outperforms WRF in the simulation of vertical profiles of temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, being able to partially correct some of the biases in the GFS data.

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Development of high‐resolution monthly precipitation datasets for geomorphological applications in the Tianshan Mountains from 2000 to 2050

Fan,

Xu,

Chen

et al. 2024

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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Precipitation has a fundamental influence on landscape evolution and erosion rates. Accurate predictions of precipitation changes are crucial for landscape evolution modelling and erosion modelling. The Tianshan Mountains are known as the ‘Water Tower in Central Asia’, where precipitation is the main water supply for the surrounding lakes and rivers and also supports the population and economic development in the plain areas. This study developed a global climate model (GCM) and digital elevation model (DEM)‐based downscaling method and simulated high‐resolution monthly precipitation in Tianshan from 2000 to 2050, with a resolution of 90 m. The datasets developed from 30 surface observation stations had a high degree of precision and simulated the precipitation processes well in the historical period. The simulation results indicated that precipitation will increase at a rate of 11 mm/decade under the SSP245 scenario and 5 mm/decade under the RCP4.5 scenario from 2022 to 2050. Spatially, precipitation was projected to increase in the central and eastern regions and decrease in the western region. In the Kaidu, Urumqi and Manas river basins in the central Tianshan Mountains, precipitation was projected to increase at a rate of 20 mm/decade. The datasets developed here have important theoretical and practical implications for water resource management, and sustainable development in Central Asia.

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Future projections of temperature and precipitation climatology for CORDEX-MENA domain using RegCM4.4

Cited by 77 publications

References 72 publications

High‐resolution projection of climate change and extremity over Israel using COSMO‐CLM

High‐resolution projection of climate change and extremity over Israel using COSMO‐CLM

On the Analysis of the Performance of WRF and NICAM in a Hyperarid Environment

Development of high‐resolution monthly precipitation datasets for geomorphological applications in the Tianshan Mountains from 2000 to 2050

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