Future projection of mean river discharge climatology for the Chao Phraya River basin

Champathong, Adisorn; Komori, Daisuke; Kiguchi, Masashi; Sukhapunnaphan, Thada; Oki, Taikan; Nakaegawa, Tosiyuki

doi:10.3178/hrl.7.36

Cited by 25 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 14 publications

(21 reference statements)

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“…However, Kure and Tebakari (2012) and this study projected large increases in runoff under the late future climate. Champathong et al (2013) projected a significant increase in evapotranspiration in the entire basin, which differs from our results. Champathong et al (2013) indicated that a projected increase in precipitation was not significant in the Ping and Wang River basins, suggesting that fewer cloudy days were projected by their GCMs than by the CMIP5 AOGCMs.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 57%

“…Champathong et al (2013) projected a significant increase in evapotranspiration in the entire basin, which differs from our results. Champathong et al (2013) indicated that a projected increase in precipitation was not significant in the Ping and Wang River basins, suggesting that fewer cloudy days were projected by their GCMs than by the CMIP5 AOGCMs. That could also explain the increase in evapotranspiration projected by Champathog et al (2013).…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 57%

“…Our results indicated that uncertainties in the future precipitation and runoff are large around the northeast basin. Champathong et al (2013) used MRI-AGCM3.2s and physically downscaled CMIP3 GCMs and projected no significant change in C.2. However, Kure and Tebakari (2012) and this study projected large increases in runoff under the late future climate.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…MRI-CGCM3 and BCC-CSM1.1 were excluded because of their low spatial correlation with APHRODITE data. Note that the excluded MRI-CGCM3 is a different dataset from the MRI-AGCMs used by Hunukumbura and Tachikawa (2012), Kure and Tebakari (2012), and Champathong et al (2013).…”

Section: Climate Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Kure and Tebakari (2012) evaluated future mean annual river discharge using the previous and latest version (3.2) of the 20 km mesh MRI-AGCM; they reported that mean annual river discharge is likely to increase at C.2 due to increased rainfall. Using different resolutions and ensemble experiments in the MRI-AGCM, Champathong et al (2013) reported that precipitation was projected to increase significantly in the basin in future rainy seasons, excluding May; however, no significant changes in river discharge were projected at C.2. None of these climatechange studies of the Chao Phraya Basin included an uncertainty evaluation of emissions or Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected hydrological changes and their consistency under future climate in the Chao Phraya River Basin using multi-model and multi-scenario of CMIP5 dataset

Kotsuki

Tanaka

Watanabe

2014

Hydrological Research Letters

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Abstract:It is important to examine what future hydrological changes could occur as a result of climate change. In this study, we projected hydrological changes and their consistency under near-future and end-of-21st-century climate in the Chao Phraya River Basin. Through hydrological simulations using output from six AOGCMs under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, we have reached the following conclusions. Our results demonstrate a projected increase in mid-rainy season precipitation under future climate, which is a necessary condition for a large volume of runoff to occur in the late rainy season. Under end-of-21st-century climate, all simulations using six AOGCMs showed a large increase (> 20%) in runoff in Nakhon Sawan catchment under both RCP scenarios. Compared to the capacities of the Bhumibol and Sirikit dams, projected increases in runoff at the end of the 21st century are high. New flood management and mitigation plans will likely be necessary. Ensemble mean increases in precipitation and runoff were higher under RCP 8.5 than under the RCP 4.5 scenario in both projected periods. Thus, higher global mean temperature would cause higher precipitation and runoff in the basin. This inference is also supported by the higher precipitation and runoff projected under the late future compared with under the near-future climate.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 57%

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 57%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected hydrological changes and their consistency under future climate in the Chao Phraya River Basin using multi-model and multi-scenario of CMIP5 dataset

Kotsuki

Tanaka

Watanabe

2014

Hydrological Research Letters

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Impact assessment of reservoir operation in the context of climate change adaptation in the Chao Phraya River basin

Gopalan

Hanasaki

Champathong

et al. 2020

Hydrological Processes

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Climate change adaptation has become the current focus of research due to the remarkable potential of climate change to alter the spatial and temporal distribution of global water availability. Although reservoir operation is a potential adaptation option, earlier studies explicitly demonstrated only its historical quantitative effects. Therefore, this article evaluated the possibility of reservoir operation from an adaptation viewpoint for regulating the future flow using the H08 global hydrological model with the Chao Phraya River basin as a case study. This basin is the largest river system in Thailand and has often been affected by extreme weather challenges in the past. Future climate scenarios were constructed from the bias‐corrected outputs of three general circulation models from 2080 to 2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The important conclusions that can be drawn from this study are as follows: (i) the operation of existing and hypothetical (i.e., construction under planning) reservoirs cannot reduce the future high flows below the channel carrying capacity, although it can increase low flows in the basin. This indicates that changes in the magnitude of future high flow due to climate change are likely to be larger than those achieved by reservoir operation and there is a need for other adaptation options. (ii) A combination of reservoir operation and afforestation was considered as an adaptation strategy, but the magnitude of the discharge reduction in the wet season was still smaller than the increase caused by warming. This further signifies the necessity of combining other structural, as well as non‐structural, measures. Overall, this adaptation approach for assessing the effect of reservoir operation in reducing the climate change impacts using H08 model can be applied not only in the study area but also in other places where climate change signals are robust.

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Projected future changes in mean precipitation over Thailand based on multi‐model regional climate simulations of CORDEX Southeast Asia

Tangang

Juneng

Salimun

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This paper highlights detailed projected changes in rainfall over Thailand for the early (2011–2040), middle (2041–2070) and late (2071–2099) periods of the 21st century under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using the high‐resolution multi‐model simulations of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Southeast Asia. The ensemble mean is calculated based on seven members consisting of six general circulation models (GCMs) and three regional climate models (RCMs). Generally, the ensemble mean precipitation agrees reasonably well with observations, best represented by the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) data, over Thailand during the historical period (1976–2005). However, inter‐model variations can be large among ensemble members especially during dry months (December to March) for northern‐central‐eastern parts, and throughout the year for the southern parts of Thailand. Similarly for future projection periods, inter‐model variations in the sign and magnitude of changes exist. The ensemble means of projected changes in rainfall for both RCPs during dry months show distinct contrast between the northern‐central‐eastern parts and the southern parts of Thailand with generally wetter and drier conditions, respectively. The magnitude of change can be as high as 15% of the historical period, which varies depending on the sub‐region, season, projection period, and RCP scenario. In contrast, generally drier conditions are projected during the wet season (June to September) throughout the country for both RCPs where the rainfall reduction can be as high as 10% in some areas. However, the magnitude of projected rainfall changes of some individual models can be much larger than the ensemble means, exceeding 40% in some cases. These projected changes are related to the changes in regional circulations associated with the winter and summer monsoons, which are projected to weaken. The drier (wetter) condition is associated with the enhanced subsidence (rising motion).

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Future projection of mean river discharge climatology for the Chao Phraya River basin

Cited by 25 publications

References 14 publications

Projected hydrological changes and their consistency under future climate in the Chao Phraya River Basin using multi-model and multi-scenario of CMIP5 dataset

Projected hydrological changes and their consistency under future climate in the Chao Phraya River Basin using multi-model and multi-scenario of CMIP5 dataset

Impact assessment of reservoir operation in the context of climate change adaptation in the Chao Phraya River basin

Projected future changes in mean precipitation over Thailand based on multi‐model regional climate simulations of CORDEX Southeast Asia

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