Future Prediction of Heat and Discomfort Indices based on two RCP Scenarios

Abstract

There has been an increasing need to assess the effects of climate change on human health. It is hard to use climate data to evaluate health effects because such data have a grid format, which could not represent specific cities or provinces. Therefore, the grid-format climate data of South Korea based on RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios were modified into area-format climate data according to the major cities or provinces of the country, up to the year 2100. Moreover, heat index (HI) and discomfort index (DI) databases were developed from the modified climate database. These databases will soon be available for experts via a Website, and the expected HI and DI of any place in the country, or at any time, can be found in the country's climate homepage (http://www.climate.go.kr). The HI and DI were analyzed by plotting the average indices every ten years, and by comparing cities or provinces with index level changes, using the geographic information system (GIS). Both the HI and DI are expected to continually increase from 2011 to 2100, and to reach the most dangerous level especially in August 2100. Among the major cities of South Korea, Gwangju showed the highest HI and DI, and Gangwon province is expected to be the least affected area in terms of HI and DI among all the country's provinces.

Applicability of Heat Index for Effective Heatwave Response

“…최근 연구결과에 따르면 극한고온현상 발생빈도가 계속 증가하고 있는 추세이다 (Choi and Lee, 2019). NOAA ( 2020 (Steadman, 1979;Choi et al, 2005;Lee et al, 2013 (Cinar et al, 2001;Kim et al, 2006;Park and Lee, 2006;Kysely et al, 2009). 또한 폭염 일수가 증가함에 따라 폭염 사망자는 지수적으로 증가하고, 최고기 온이 33 ℃ 이상일 때 사망자가 급증하는 것으로 알려져 있다 (Kim et al, 2014 6).…”