Future precipitation changes in the Central Ethiopian Main Rift under CMIP5 GCMs

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to predict future changes in precipitation in the Central Ethiopian Main Rift, which is vulnerable to climate change. The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model was applied to project precipitation based on five global climate models (GCMs) (EC-EARTH, MIROC-ESM, HadGEM2-ES, INM-CM4, and CCSM4) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in the periods of 2041–2060 compared to the baseline period of 1976–2005. The model's calibration and validation results showed that it could predict future precipitation. According to the analysis, the mean rainfall is expected to increase in January (up to 14.2%) and December (up to 27.8%) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, a drop is anticipated in June (up to 8.2%) and May (up to 7%) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In both scenarios, summer precipitation (usually the rainy season) is predicted to fall, while winter precipitation (usually the dry season) is expected to climb. Furthermore, annual and spring precipitation forecasts are anticipated to decrease in most locations. The findings of this research will be utilized to guide future water resource management in the study region.

Testing CORDEX GCMs for Projecting Rainfall in Amhara, Ethiopia

“…Compared to the climatological base period , the result of our study shows an increase in annual rainfall amount for the three RCPs and the three future periods except for RCP8.5 in the long-term period (2081-2100). Hailesilassie et al (2022) applied the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model for precipitation projection based on five GCMs (MIROC-ESM, HadGEM2-ES, EC-EARTH, INM-CM4, and CCSM4) from CMIP5 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2041-2060 compared to 1976-2005 baseline period in Central Ethiopia Main Rift area. The result showed that summer precipitation (often the rainy season) was predicted to fall while winter precipitation (often the dry season) was expected to climb in both scenarios; also, annual and spring precipitation was anticipated to decrease in most locations (Hailesilassie et al, 2022).…”

“…Hailesilassie et al (2022) applied the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model for precipitation projection based on five GCMs (MIROC-ESM, HadGEM2-ES, EC-EARTH, INM-CM4, and CCSM4) from CMIP5 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2041-2060 compared to 1976-2005 baseline period in Central Ethiopia Main Rift area. The result showed that summer precipitation (often the rainy season) was predicted to fall while winter precipitation (often the dry season) was expected to climb in both scenarios; also, annual and spring precipitation was anticipated to decrease in most locations (Hailesilassie et al, 2022). In this study, Amhara's projected monthly and annual mean rainfall amount will be higher than that of the historical for all RCPs except for RCP 8.5 in the long-term future (2081-2100).…”

Trends, forecasting and adaptation strategies of climate change in the middle and west regions of Iraq

“…Projected to rise in global mean surface temperature under each of the evaluated emission scenarios throughout the twenty-first century between 0.3 and 4.8 and there will not be a uniform change in precipitation [5,32]. And the predicts were compatibility with many studies conducted around the world such as; Europe [14], North America [33], Africa [34][35][36][37], and Asia [38][39][40][41]. In Turkey, an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation rates were projected during the twenty-first century [42], while in Iran, the temperature rise was with variable trends in precipitation [43].…”