Future Possible Changes in Medically Underserved Areas in Japan: A Geographic Information System-Based Simulation Study

Abstract

Background: A decrease in populations could affect healthcare access and systems, particularly in medically underserved areas (MUAs) where depopulation is becoming more prevalent. This study aimed to simulate the future population and land areas of MUAs in Japan. Methods: This study covered 380,948 1 km meshes, 87,942 clinics, and 8354 hospitals throughout Japan as of 2020. The areas outside a 4 km radius of medical institutions were considered as MUAs, based on the measure of areas in the current Japanese Medical Care Act. Based on the population estimate for a 1 km mesh, the population of mesh numbers of MUAs was predicted for every 10 years from 2020 to 2050 using geographic information system analysis. If the population within a 4 km radius from a medical institution fell below 1000, the institution was operationally assumed to be closed. Results: The number of MUAs was predicted to decrease from 964,310 (0.77% of the total Japanese population) in 2020 to 763,410 (0.75%) by 2050. By 2050, 48,105 meshes (13% of the total meshes in Japan) were predicted to be new MUAs, indicating a 31% increase in MUAs from 2020 to 2050. By 2050, 1601 medical institutions were tentatively estimated to be in close proximity. Conclusions: In Japan, the population of MUAs will decrease, while the land area of MUAs will increase. Such changes may reform rural healthcare policy and systems.