Future of cancer incidence in Shanghai, China: Predicting the burden upon the ageing population

Liu, Zhenqiu; Jiang, Yanfeng; Fang, Qiwen; Yuan, Huangbo; Cai, Ning; Suo, Chen; Ye, Weimin; Chen, Xingdong; Zhang, Tiejun

doi:10.1016/j.canep.2019.03.004

Cited by 26 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…In contrast, six Chinese studies reported decreasing liver cancer incidence rates among males, females, or persons over the past one to three decades (30)(31)(32)(33)(34)37) with two more (35,36) describing stable trends from around 2000. Two studies from Japan (38,39) and one from South Korea (40) also reported decreasing incidence across both sexes over recent decades, consistent with the decrease in the Philippines between 1983 and 2002 (42).…”

Section: Liver Cancers Combinedmentioning

confidence: 93%

Global Trends in Incidence Rates of Primary Adult Liver Cancers: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

et al. 2020

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Background: Primary liver cancer is a leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Global burden varies, reflecting geographical distribution of viral hepatitis. Our objective was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of published current trends in incidence of adult liver cancers and histological types worldwide. Methods: This study used systematic searches of PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, and Web of Science databases for English-language peer-reviewed articles published from 1 January 2008 to 01 September 2019. Inclusion criteria were population-based studies of adult liver cancer patients with quantitative estimates of temporal trends in incidence for liver cancers and/or histological types. For multiple studies from the same geographical area, only the publication that reported the most recent trends for the same cancer type and population subgroup was included. Review was conducted per PRISMA guidelines. Two authors independently extracted data and critically assessed studies. Proposed contributors to observed trends were extracted from included articles. Study-specific estimates of the annual percentage change (APC) in incidence rates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis models. Heterogeneity was measured using the I 2 statistics and publication bias evaluated using funnel plots and Egger's tests. Results: Overall, 53 studies met the inclusion criteria, of which 31 were included in the meta-analysis. Overall, pooled APC estimates were +0.8 (95% CI −0.3, +2.0) for liver cancers combined, +2.6 (95% CI +1.2, +4.0) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and +4.3 (95% CI +2.5, +6.1) for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. Subgroup analyses indicated increasing trends for liver cancers (APC +3.2, 95% CI +2.5, +3.9) and HCC (APC +3.6, 95% CI +2.9, +4.4) in the region of North America/Europe/Australia, whereas corresponding trends were decreasing (APC −1.7, 95% CI −2.2, −1.1) and stable (APC −0.7, 95% CI −1.9, +0.5) in Asia, respectively. Dasgupta et al. Liver Cancer Incidence Trends Meta-Analysis Conclusions: Incidence is increasing for adult liver cancers and HCC in Western countries, whereas trends are decreasing in the Asian region, although still remaining high. Our findings highlight the importance of viral hepatitis control and lifestyle interventions to reduce global liver cancer burden. Ongoing surveillance is also vital to detect early shifts in incidence trends.

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Section: Liver Cancers Combinedmentioning

confidence: 93%

Global Trends in Incidence Rates of Primary Adult Liver Cancers: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

et al. 2020

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“…Korea is one of the most rapidly aging societies in the world, and some East Asian countries are experiencing similar changes [ 20 21 22 ]. In Japan, where population aging began earlier, the incidence rate of prostate cancer is expected to increase dramatically from 103,610 in 2015–2019 to 180,860 in 2035–2039 (a 74.6% increase), whereas the incidence rates of other common cancers in men (stomach, liver, lung, and colon) are expected to stabilize or decline during the same period [ 23 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incidence and mortality projections for major cancers among Korean men until 2034, with a focus on prostate cancer

et al. 2022

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Purpose The Korean population is rapidly aging, and the cancer burden is expected to change significantly. This study aimed to generate projections of incidence and mortality of major cancers among men in Korea until 2034, with a special focus on prostate cancer. Materials and Methods Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2016 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database. Mortality data were obtained from Statistics Korea. The most common cancers among Korean men (stomach, colorectum, liver, lung and prostate) were analyzed. To predict the future trends of these cancers, the age-period-cohort method was conducted and extrapolated up to 2034. Results In Korean men, prostate cancer was the fourth most commonly diagnosed cancer in 2016. Based on newly diagnosed cases, the leading cancer site in the year 2034 is expected to be the lung, and the prostate is expected to be the second most frequently diagnosed cancer among Korean men. Age-standardized incidence rates of the most common cancers in men, except prostate cancer, are expected to decrease until 2034. Lung cancer is projected to remain the most common cause of cancer-related mortality until 2034, and the highest estimated change in cancer deaths is expected to be for prostate cancer. Conclusions In Korea, the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer is expected to increase markedly in the period up to 2034, particularly in older men. Concerted efforts in screening, diagnosis, and treatment strategies should be considered by healthcare planners and providers.

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“…[2][3][4][5] These trends are often extrapolated to get estimates of the future burden of cancer for planning purposes, or based on scenarios reflecting the likely effect of new screening strategies, or changes in the distributions of risk factors. [6][7][8] Survival models do not show good predictive performances. 9,10 This may be one of the reasons why prediction and projection of survival are, by far, less routinely made.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“… 2 – 5 These trends are often extrapolated to get estimates of the future burden of cancer for planning purposes, or based on scenarios reflecting the likely effect of new screening strategies, or changes in the distributions of risk factors. 6 – 8 …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of cancer survival for cohorts of patients most recently diagnosed using multi-model inference

Maringe

Belot

Rachet

2020

Stat Methods Med Res

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Despite a large choice of models, functional forms and types of effects, the selection of excess hazard models for prediction of population cancer survival is not widespread in the literature. We propose multi-model inference based on excess hazard model(s) selected using Akaike information criteria or Bayesian information criteria for prediction and projection of cancer survival. We evaluate the properties of this approach using empirical data of patients diagnosed with breast, colon or lung cancer in 1990–2011. We artificially censor the data on 31 December 2010 and predict five-year survival for the 2010 and 2011 cohorts. We compare these predictions to the observed five-year cohort estimates of cancer survival and contrast them to predictions from an a priori selected simple model, and from the period approach. We illustrate the approach by replicating it for cohorts of patients for which stage at diagnosis and other important prognosis factors are available. We find that model-averaged predictions and projections of survival have close to minimal differences with the Pohar-Perme estimation of survival in many instances, particularly in subgroups of the population. Advantages of information-criterion based model selection include (i) transparent model-building strategy, (ii) accounting for model selection uncertainty, (iii) no a priori assumption for effects, and (iv) projections for patients outside of the sample.

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Future of cancer incidence in Shanghai, China: Predicting the burden upon the ageing population

Cited by 26 publications

References 36 publications

Global Trends in Incidence Rates of Primary Adult Liver Cancers: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Global Trends in Incidence Rates of Primary Adult Liver Cancers: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Incidence and mortality projections for major cancers among Korean men until 2034, with a focus on prostate cancer

Prediction of cancer survival for cohorts of patients most recently diagnosed using multi-model inference

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