Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall

Cvijanović, Ivana; Santer, Benjamin D.; Bonfils, C.; Lucas, D. D.; Chiang, John C. H.; Zimmerman, Susan

doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01907-4

Cited by 94 publications

(101 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…All of these features are consistent with most previous coupled modeling studies on this topic (Deser et al, , ; Tomas et al, ; Blackport & Kushner, , ; Oudar et al, ; Wang et al, 2017; Sun et al, ; Hay et al, ; Blackport & Screen, ). Note that our findings are distinct from those of Cvijanovic et al () who found increased geopotential height over the North Pacific and decreased precipitation over the west coast of the United States in response to Arctic sea ice loss. They speculated that the disparity between their results and previous studies is due to the method used to constrain sea ice.…”

Section: Implications For Coordinated Experiments In Pamipcontrasting

confidence: 99%

Global Coupled Climate Response to Polar Sea Ice Loss: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Different Ice‐Constraining Approaches

Sun

Deser

Tomas

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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Coupled ocean‐atmosphere models have been utilized to investigate the global climate response to polar sea ice loss using different approaches to constrain ice concentration and thickness. The goal of this study is to compare two commonly used methods within a single model framework: ice albedo reduction, which is energy conserving, and ice‐flux nudging, which is not energy conserving. The two approaches generate virtually identical equilibrium global climate responses to the same seasonal cycle of sea ice loss. However, while ice‐flux nudging is able to control the sea ice state year‐round, albedo reduction is most effective during summer and lessens the effects of climate change in winter due to the underestimation of sea ice loss. These evaluations have implications for the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), which proposes a set of coordinated coupled model experiments but without a defined protocol on how to constrain sea ice.

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Section: Implications For Coordinated Experiments In Pamipcontrasting

confidence: 99%

Global Coupled Climate Response to Polar Sea Ice Loss: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Different Ice‐Constraining Approaches

Sun

Deser

Tomas

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…The prospects of climate change make such extreme drought events more likely in the future (Cvijanovic et al. ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Survival of Juvenile Fall‐Run Chinook Salmon through the San Joaquin River Delta, California, 2010–2015

Buchanan

Brandes

Skalski

2018

N American J Fish Manag

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Survival of juvenile fall‐run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha through the San Joaquin River Delta of California (hereafter, “Delta”) has been low for most estimates since 2002 and has been consistently low since 2010. From 2010 through 2015, annual estimates of the probability of surviving through the Delta (from Mossdale to Chipps Island, approximately 92 river kilometers) ranged from 0 to 0.05, based on acoustic‐telemetry data from smolt‐sized hatchery Chinook Salmon. River conditions were poor in most of these years; average daily river discharge into the Delta from the San Joaquin River was <40 m3/s in four of the six study years. In the high flow year of 2011 (average daily river discharge = 278–308 m3/s), the juvenile survival probability through the Delta was estimated at only 0.02 (SE < 0.01), suggesting increased flows alone will not be sufficient to resolve the low survival through the Delta. The low survival in this short portion of the salmon's life history makes achieving a minimal smolt‐to‐adult ratio of ≥2% nearly impossible for this fish stock. Over half of the fish surviving through the Delta during 6 years of study were salvaged at the Central Valley Project's water export facility and transported for release just upstream of Chipps Island.

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“…We primarily present ensemble‐mean results but include the ensemble spread in the figures for reference. Unlike previous studies (Deser et al, ; Sun et al, ; Tomas et al, ; K. Wang et al, ), our modified‐albedo approach avoids using external heat flux anomalies to modulate the Arctic sea ice cover and thus ensures energy conservation in the climate system (Bitz et al, ; Blackport & Kushner, , ; Cvijanovic et al, ; Graversen & Wang, ; Scinocca et al, ; Screen et al, ).…”

Section: Observations Model Experiments and The Energetics Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice Loss Mediated by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Liu

Fedorov

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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We explore the global impacts of Arctic sea ice decline in climate model perturbation experiments focusing on the temporal evolution of induced changes. We find that climate response to a realistic reduction in sea ice cover varies dramatically between shorter decadal and longer multidecadal to centennial timescales. During the first two decades, when atmospheric processes dominate, sea ice decline induces a “bipolar seesaw” pattern in surface temperature with warming in the Northern and cooling in the Southern Hemisphere, leading to a northward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and an expansion of Antarctic sea ice. In contrast, on multidecadal and longer timescales, the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, caused by upper‐ocean buoyancy anomalies spreading from the Arctic, mediates direct sea ice impacts and nearly reverses the original response pattern outside the Arctic. The Southern Hemisphere warms, a Warming Hole emerges in the North Atlantic, the Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts southward, and Antarctic sea ice contracts.

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Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall

Cited by 94 publications

References 66 publications

Global Coupled Climate Response to Polar Sea Ice Loss: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Different Ice‐Constraining Approaches

Global Coupled Climate Response to Polar Sea Ice Loss: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Different Ice‐Constraining Approaches

Survival of Juvenile Fall‐Run Chinook Salmon through the San Joaquin River Delta, California, 2010–2015

Global Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice Loss Mediated by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

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