Future landscapes of Switzerland: Risk areas for urbanisation and land abandonment

Price, Bronwyn; Kienast, Félix; Seidl, Irmi; Ginzler, Christian; Verburg, Peter H.; Bolliger, Janine

doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.12.009

Cited by 104 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Our results show that both mean temperature and precipitation are not the most significant drivers over the four regions, however, they both have some influence. These results indicate the importance of creating regional models in agreement with a previous study [26].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

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Spatial Dynamic Modelling of Future Scenarios of Land Use Change in Vaud and Valais, Western Switzerland

Gago-Silva

Ray

Lehmann

2017

IJGI

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Abstract:We use Bayesian methods with a weights of evidence approach to model the probability of land use change over the Western part of Switzerland. This first model is followed by a cellular automata model for spatial allocation of land use classes. Our results extend and enhance current land use scenarios studies by applying Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EG) to a study area comprising of the upper Rhone river basin in the Cantons of Vaud and Valais. In order to take into account the topography, we divide the study area into four regions, based on their altitude and administrative region. We show that the different regions are affected in differing ways by the same driving forces. We analyse possible outcomes in land use change in 2050 for three different scenarios: "business as usual", "liberalisation" and a "lowered agriculture production". The "business-as-usual" scenario results indicate a decrease in agriculture, mostly in extensive agriculture, with a share in the total area of 12. Gains in open land habitat with the increase of the share of extensive agriculture area under the "lowered agricultural production" scenario are expected to increase by 3.2% in 2050, while the share of intensive agriculture area is expected to decrease by 5.6%.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

“…The land use change model applied in this study incorporates a statistical inference method (WoE) and we model multiple land use transitions as compared with previous studies [13,[25][26][27]. Nevertheless, several improvements can be implemented.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Dynamic Modelling of Future Scenarios of Land Use Change in Vaud and Valais, Western Switzerland

Gago-Silva

Ray

Lehmann

2017

IJGI

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“…Thus, land abandonment has featured prominently in Europe, North America and Japan (Caraveli, 2000;Rudel et al, 2005;Sluiter and De Jong, 2007). In Europe, in particular, extensive research has recently been done on land abandonment and ecological recovery in areas such as the south of France (Sanz et al, 2013), Portugal (van Doorn and Bakker, 2007), Switzerland (Price et al, 2015), and Austria (Silber and Wytrzens, 2006); it has also been studied in the Mediterranean area in general (Weissteiner et al, 2011). Land abandonment has also been occurring in developing countries including China (Liu and Li, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land abandonment under rural restructuring in China explained from a cost-benefit perspective

Zhang

Song

et al. 2016

Journal of Rural Studies

104

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a b s t r a c tChina has experienced socio-economic transitions in recent decades, featuring a large amount of rural labor migrating into urban areas. As a response, rural land use has been restructured across large areas. In this process, vast amounts of land have been abandoned due to labor loss, especially in mountainous areas. Understanding how land attributes determine which land parcels are abandoned is essential to sustainable development of rural areas. Here we examine how two main farmland parcel attributes, farmland-to-housing distance and land quality, by affecting farming costs and benefits, and thereby profits, determine farmland abandonment. We constructed a semi-empirical crop profit model based on output benefits and input costs derived from household survey data from mountainous Wulong County, Chongqing Province, China. With this model, crop profits can be estimated and in turn the farmland-tohousing distances at which farming profits diminish to zero ("zero profit distance", abbreviated as "ZPD") can be identified. Based on the hypothesis that land will be abandoned when cultivation cannot make profits, ZPD values can be used to predict patterns of abandonment. At current price levels, the ZPD values are 5.94 km, 3.84 km, 2.52 km and 1.48 km for first-class, second-class, third-class and fourthclass land, respectively. Overall, the observed occurrence of land abandonment in relation to farmland-to-housing distance and land quality is concordant with the model's predictions, supporting the underlying hypothesis that land will be abandoned when the farmland-to-housing distance exceeds the ZPD. These findings may serve as an important tool for predicting land abandonment and identifying countermeasures for mountainous areas.

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“…For any investment to flourish one has to make any aspect of the business feasibility and viability studies for proper dealings and carefulness from avoiding fraudulent business, real estate business has less harm if the owner or the buyer makes a proper investigation of the subject matter. An increase in international real estate capital flows could foster increasing demand for stronger institutions across global real estate market [2,13,28,31,37]. A number of article have argued that real estate investment has realized tremendous positive abnormal risk adjustment returns [13], return on real estate investment is certain as rent or prestige as indicated by [32].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sale or lease of parcel of land by a speculator or prospective seller to willing buyer entails good returns to the seller and asset possession to the willing buyer. Another good aspect of investment on real estate is tenants selection [18,29,6,40,38,7,28,31,37].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real Estate Investment as a Panacea for Economic Instability in Nigeria: Evidence from Northeastern States of Nigeria

Bello

Aliyu

David

et al. 2017

PoS

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Abstract. Real estate investment is an emerging business in many countries of the world. Real estate investment was thoroughly investigated to come up with solution faced by the transaction of land and building. Real estate investment is strictly related to the housing price. It has been pointed out by many researchers that the housing price is affected by many factors, such as interest rate, land supply, government policies and inflation rate. The research highlighted most important aspects of the outcomes. An increase in international real estate capital flows could foster increasing demand for stronger institutions across a global real estate market. The method adopted in this research was quantitative through which 100 questionnaires were developed and distributed within the study area (Bauchi, Gombe, Adamawa and Yobe States). The simple percentage was used to analyzed the data collected. The research is exploratory in nature; hence, a non-probability purposive sampling technique was used for the study. The finding of the research vindicated that real estate investment has a significant role in sharpening the economy of the region, and also the findings revealed that real estate investment opportunity is huge. And again for suggested that housing provision cannot be realized only by private individual excerpts through government intervention. The study concludes that real estate investment, if explore it will create a reliable return to the investment owners, the benefits that can be derived from real estate investment, has been revealed by this study. The study also highlighted that private developers are key important for real estate investment in Nigeria. The conclusion drawn by this research shows that real estate investment has a capacity of transforming economic hardship in the country.

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Future landscapes of Switzerland: Risk areas for urbanisation and land abandonment

Cited by 104 publications

References 33 publications

Spatial Dynamic Modelling of Future Scenarios of Land Use Change in Vaud and Valais, Western Switzerland

Spatial Dynamic Modelling of Future Scenarios of Land Use Change in Vaud and Valais, Western Switzerland

Land abandonment under rural restructuring in China explained from a cost-benefit perspective

Real Estate Investment as a Panacea for Economic Instability in Nigeria: Evidence from Northeastern States of Nigeria

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