Future land use management effects on ecosystem services under different scenarios in the Wabe River catchment of Gurage Mountain chain landscape, Ethiopia

Sahle, Mesfin; Saito, Osamu; Fürst, Christine; Demissew, Sebsebe; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

doi:10.1007/s11625-018-0585-y

Cited by 31 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Throughout the urban expansion activities, unplanned LULC transformations have triggered many environmental consequences, specifically in the highly populous, small, developing countries [1]. For instance, the conversion of LULC to various settlements and agricultural purposes causes threats to several ecosystem services (ESs), for example, recreational opportunities [2], biodiversity and habitat quality [2], soil formation and nutrient cycling [4], climate regulation [2,5], erosion control [4,6], and water regulation [2,4]. The effect of these LULC alterations has resulted in the debasement of ESs, which are defined as the cumulative form of ecosystem goods and services, that benefit human life, from various ecosystem functions (e.g., provision, regulation, support, and culture) [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In another study, Sun et al [2] also reported an alteration of ESVs in Atlanta, USA, due to the changes in LULC patterns, such as rapid urban development, and by increasing in the amounts of open water and barren land, at the cost of forests, wetlands, and agricultural land. In order to comprehend and assess the impacts of these LULC changes on the future land sustainability, the accessibility to reliable and sufficient information on the dynamics of LULC transformation over different time horizons is getting to be progressively fundamental [4,6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services in the Lower Meghna River Estuary, Bangladesh

et al. 2020

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Assessing the effects of different land use scenarios on subsequent changes in ecosystem service has great implications for sustainable land management. Here, we designed four land use/land cover (LULC) scenarios, such as business-as-usual development (BAUD), economic development priority (EDP), ecological protection priority (EPP), and afforestation development priority (ADP), through a Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model, and their effects on ecosystem service values (ESVs) were predicted, using historical LULC maps and ESV coefficients of the Lower Meghna River Estuary, Bangladesh. Findings revealed that agricultural and mangrove forest lands experienced the greatest decreases, while rural and urban settlement land had the greatest increases, leading to a total ESV decrease of US$105.34 million during 1988-2018. The scenario analysis indicated that ESV in 2038 would also decrease by US$41.37 million and US$16.38 million under the BAUD and EDP scenarios, respectively, while ESV will increase by US$60.61 million and US$130.95 million under the EPP and ADP scenarios, respectively. However, all the future land use scenarios will lead to 1.65%, 10.21%, 7.58%, and 6.75% gaps in total food requirements, respectively. Hence, from the perspective of maximizing ESVs and minimizing the trade-offs in food gaps, the ADP scenario could be the optimal land management policy for the studied landscape.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services in the Lower Meghna River Estuary, Bangladesh

et al. 2020

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“…This paper not only considered the characteristics of land use and socioeconomic developments but also attempted to add specific land design projects into the simulation scenarios. Specifically, the natural scenario was based on past and current development tendencies including population growth and economic and environmental protection, which is the same as the BAU scenario [71]. The other two scenarios set a threshold value first based on the overall land use planning of Chengde City for 2009-2020 from the government such as that there would be a restricted area in Chengde City for two important nature reserves (Mulan Weichang and Saihanba).…”

Section: Characteristics Of Scenarios Setting and Each Scenario Simulmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change of the Upper and Middle Streams of the Luan River, Northern China

Guan

Jiang

et al. 2019

Sustainability

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Climatic, socio-economic, geophysical, and human activity factors, among others, influence land use patterns. However, these driving factors also have different relationships with each other. Combining machine learning methods and statistical models is a good way to simulate the dominant land use types. The Luan River basin is located in a farming-pastoral transitional zone and is an important ecological barrier between Beijing and Tianjin. In this study, we predicted future land use and land cover changes from 2010 to 2020 in the Luan River’s upper and middle reaches under three scenarios—the natural scenario, the ecological scenario, and the sustainable scenario. The results indicate that cultivated land will decrease while the forested areas will increase quantitatively in the future. Built-up areas would increase quickly in the natural scenario, and augmented expansion of forest would be the main features of land use changes in both the ecological scenario and the sustainable scenario. Regarding the spatial pattern, different land use patterns will be aggregated and patches will become larger. Our findings for the scenario analysis of land use changes can provide a reference case for sustainable land use planning and management in the upper and middle Luan River basin.

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“…Box 4. Case study: assessing water regulation and carbon sequestration using InVEST model (based on: Sahle et al [167,168] and others cited).…”

Section: Supporting and Regulating Services For The Functioning Of Thmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The anticipated effects on ecosystem service provision to be achieved through introducing agroforestry in the Wabe River catchment of the Gurage Mountain chain landscape, Ethiopia, over the period 2017-2030 have been modelled by Sahle et al [167,168] using the InVEST model [169]. Under a future land-use scenario with increased agroforestry, improvements could include increased food production (102%), water yields (17%) and carbon sequestration (19%), and reduced sediment export (21%) and soil loss (18%).…”

Section: Supporting and Regulating Services For The Functioning Of Thmentioning

confidence: 99%

Valuing Environmental Benefit Streams in the Dryland Ecosystems of Sub-Saharan Africa

King‐Okumu

2018

Land

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Policy-makers and practitioners often struggle or fail to define and quantify the economic impacts that can be achieved through ecologically sustainable investments in dryland ecosystems. This paper reviews the current state of the art in the characterization and valuation of environmental benefits in drought-prone areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Benefit streams from ecosystem services associated with the production of food, energy and water are characterized, as well as those from supporting and regulating hydrological systems. For each value type, valuation approaches and examples of their application in Sub-Saharan African contexts are presented. The review is drawn from a series of recent methodological discussions, working papers and field research reports focusing on the benefits of locally determined and ecosystem-based adaptations under dryland climate extremes. The focus is on the challenges faced by practitioners and researchers tasked with developing benefit-cost assessments for investments in the adaptive management and conservation of dryland ecosystems, particularly in marginalized dry and drought-prone areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Recommendations could also interest a wider global community of dryland researchers and development practitioners.

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Future land use management effects on ecosystem services under different scenarios in the Wabe River catchment of Gurage Mountain chain landscape, Ethiopia

Cited by 31 publications

References 27 publications

Future Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services in the Lower Meghna River Estuary, Bangladesh

Future Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services in the Lower Meghna River Estuary, Bangladesh

Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change of the Upper and Middle Streams of the Luan River, Northern China

Valuing Environmental Benefit Streams in the Dryland Ecosystems of Sub-Saharan Africa

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