Future intensity–duration–frequency curves of Edmonton under climate warming and increased convective available potential energy

Abstract

A regional climate model called WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) was set up in a two-way, three-domain nested framework to simulate future May to August precipitation of central Alberta, Canada. WRF is forced with climate outputs from four Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the baseline period 1980-2005, and for 2041-2100 based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A quantile-quantile bias correction method and a regional frequency analysis were applied to acquire future grid-based IDF curves for the city of Edmonton. Future trends of air temperature and convective available potential energy (CAPE) are investigated. Future IDF curves are expected to have higher intensities because of projected higher air temperature and atmospheric water vapor, and projected increase in CAPE by 2071-2100. Our results likely mean that under the impact of climate change, the future risk of flooding in Edmonton would increase.

Warming Climate‐Induced Changes in Cloud Vertical Distribution Possibly Exacerbate Intra‐Atmospheric Heating Over the Tibetan Plateau

“…One possible cause for the warming‐induced increase in H‐layer clouds may be tied to intense convective activity and the fixed anvil temperature hypothesis (due to the approximate constant of the convective detrainment temperature with warming; Hartmann & Larson, 2002). Indeed, recent studies have illustrated that the global frequency of severe convection events will increase in a warmer climate of northern hemisphere, especially over the TP region, driven primarily by intense increases in CAPE (Kuo et al., 2021; Lepore et al., 2021). The projected increases in mid‐latitude CAPE are associated with changes in the difference between surface and high‐level moist static energy (Wang & Moyer, 2023).…”

“…Under a warming climate, the weighted model predicted that H‐layer (ice) clouds would increase, and those below the tropopause would increase slightly (largely), accompanied by clear (weak) increases in the stratospheric clouds for P4K (4xCO2). This could be related to a possible switch from general convection to intense deep convection due to the stronger CAPE in warmer climates (Kuo et al., 2021). Simultaneously, clouds in h and M‐layer were expected to decline dramatically and moderately.…”