Future increases in extreme precipitation exceed observed scaling rates

Bao, Jiawei; Sherwood, Steven C.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Evans, Jason P.

doi:10.1038/nclimate3201

Cited by 289 publications

(255 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…This helps to explain the low and negative SFs in the south-western part of our study region, since in these situations, the moisture content of the advected air mass is driven by warm Mediterranean SSTs, while local temperatures are cooler especially in the fall season. In addition, the daily mean temperature during long and persistent rainfall events is likely to be more affected by the rainfall events itself than it is for short events (Bao et al 2017). The eastern part is largely shielded from 'Southern Stau' events, the highest extremes occur during shorter convective events during the warm summer months and are less affected by cooling effects due to the event itself, which can explain the higher SFs in this region.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 84%

“…Thus the moisture is not locally sourced, and local temperatures might be less indicative of the sensitivity (Zhang et al 2017). Also, the cooling effect of large scale events might play a role here (Bao et al 2017), as well as the orographic amplification of precipitation and generally cooler temperatures in the Alpine environment.…”

Section: Summary and Concluding Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the latter, the variable dynamic conditions throughout the annual cycle become increasingly influential. Furthermore, the cooling effect of precipitation on local temperatures might significantly influence the scaling rates especially for larger-scale precipitation events (Bao et al 2017). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

Schroeer

Kirchengast

2017

Clim Dyn

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 84%

Section: Summary and Concluding Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

Schroeer

Kirchengast

2017

Clim Dyn

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“…In order to match the precipitation data to antecedent air-mass properties that are characteristic for the formation of the precipitation events, T d was measured 4 hours prior to the precipitation time. This time shift also avoids the contamination of the temperature and RH records by the changes that the precipitation process imposes, such as temperature drops due to descending colder, dry air from convective downdrafts or to heat release from the evaporation of precipitation (Lenderink et al, 2011;Bao et al, 2017).…”

Section: The P I -T D Relationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event

Manola

Hurk

Moel

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase, and form a considerable risk of high-impact precipitation extremes. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a "future weather" scenario. The first method uses an observation-based non-linear relation between the hourly-observed summer precipitation and the antecedent dew-point temperature (the P i -T d relation). The second method simulates the same event by using the convective-permitting numerical weather model (NWP) model HARMONIE, for both present-day and future warmer conditions. The third method is similar to the first method, but applies a simple linear delta transformation to the historic data by using indicators from The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)'14 climate scenarios. A comparison of the three methods shows comparable intensity changes, ranging from below the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling to a 3 times CC increase per degree of warming. In the NWP model, the position of the events is somewhat different; due to small wind and convection changes, the intensity changes somewhat differ with time, but the total spatial area covered by heavy precipitation does not change with the temperature increase. The P i -T d method is simple and time efficient compared to numerical models. The outcome can be used directly for hydrological and climatological studies and for impact analysis, such as flood-risk assessments.

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“…Compared to the background of past climate change, future global warming will likely cause the frequency and intensity of regional extreme precipitation to continue to increase. Although it has been generally accepted that precipitation in subtropical regions will decrease due to future climate change [14], global extreme precipitation will increase in the current warming climate [15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variability in Extreme Precipitation in China from Observations and Projections

Peng

Zhao

et al. 2018

Water

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Extreme precipitation events, which have intensified with global warming over the past several decades, will become more intense in the future according to model projections. Although many studies have been performed, the occurrence patterns for extreme precipitation events in past and future periods in China remain unresolved. Additionally, few studies have explained how extreme precipitation events developed over the past 58 years and how they will evolve in the next 90 years as global warming becomes much more serious. In this paper, we evaluated the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events using indices for the frequency, quantity, intensity, and proportion of extreme precipitation, which were proposed by the World Meteorological Organization. We simultaneously analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in China from 2011 to 2100 using data obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Despite the fixed threshold, 95th percentile precipitation values were also used as the extreme precipitation threshold to reduce the influence of various rainfall events caused by different geographic locations; then, eight extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) were calculated to evaluate extreme precipitation in China. We found that the spatial characteristics of the eight EPIs exhibited downward trends from south to north. In the periods 1960-2017 and 2011-2100, trends in the EPIs were positive, but there were differences between different regions. In the past 58 years, the extreme precipitation increased in the northwest, southeast, and the Tibet Plateau of China, while decreased in northern China. Almost all the trends of EPIs are positive in the next two periods (2011-2055 and 2056-2100) except for some EPIs, such as intensity of extreme precipitation, which decrease in southeastern China in the second period . This study suggests that the frequency of extreme precipitation events in China will progressively increase, which implies that a substantial burden will be placed on social economies and terrestrial ecological processes.

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Future increases in extreme precipitation exceed observed scaling rates

Cited by 289 publications

References 41 publications

Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event

Spatiotemporal Variability in Extreme Precipitation in China from Observations and Projections

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