Future Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use on Multiple Ecosystem Services in a Rapidly Urbanizing Agricultural Basin, China

Abstract

Ecosystem services (ESs) in rapidly urbanizing agricultural basins are vulnerable to environmental changes. Adequately understanding the driving forces and the dynamics of ESs related to water quantity and quality can provide a basis for making sound management decisions on the development of basins. Here, we explored the impacts of future land use and climate changes on four ESs: nitrogen and phosphorous purification, water supply, and soil retention services in the Taihu Basin region of eastern China. Spatially explicit methods, a cellular automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model and the delta downscaling method were used to quantify the ESs, simulate land use changes, and project future climate changes, respectively. We built a business-as-usual land use scenario, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios for climate change, as well as a combined land use and climate change scenario to analyze the changes in the drivers and the responses of ESs. The results showed the following: (1) future land use changes would significantly enhance the nitrogen purification service while reducing the phosphorus purification service compared to other services; (2) climate change would have substantial effects on water supply and soil retention, but these impacts would vary with different RCPs scenarios during three future periods; and (3) the combined scenarios of both drivers would obviously influence all ESs and lead to a nitrogen purification service that was different from the other three services. Moreover, the policy implications of the results were discussed. The findings can help guide the creation of policies for land structure and patterns, climate change adaptation, and ecosystem-based management to promote the sustainable development of watersheds at the regional scale.

Quantitative Assessment of the Relative Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change on the Key Ecosystem Services in the Hengduan Mountain Region, China

“…Ecosystem services are closely related to topography, land use, soil, biology, climate, and socio-economic factors [4]. Land use and climate change are considered to be the main driving forces of changes in ecosystem services [5,6]. Climate change determines the spatial and temporal distribution of ecosystem services, while land use change affects ecosystem services by changing the ecosystem structure and function [7].…”

Influence of meteorological factors on ecosystem services value: a case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

“…Some studies have shown that climate change was important factor affecting ESV [28][29][30]. The above researches can draw preliminary qualitative or quantitative conclusions that meteorological factors have influence on ESV.…”

Gray Forecast of Ecosystem Services Value and Its Driving Forces in Karst Areas of China: A Case Study in Guizhou Province, China

“…Currently, research concerning the driving factors of ESV changes are plentiful [ 37 , 38 , 39 , 40 , 41 ], while direct drivers, such as land use change, and the application of new technologies attracts more attention [ 42 , 43 ]. For example, Liu et al [ 44 ] superimposed the impact of future climate scenarios and land use change on ESs to explore the overall effect of the changes on ESs. During the period of rapid economic development, population growth, economic development, and urban expansion have exerted unprecedented pressures and negative effects on the regional ESs [ 39 ], and the impact of national policies on the ESs should not be neglected, such as the Grain for Green Program [ 17 , 45 , 46 ].…”