Future health expenditure in the BRICS countries: a forecasting analysis for 2035

Sahoo, Pragyan Monalisa; Rout, Himanshu Sekhar; Jakovljević, Mihajlo

doi:10.1186/s12992-023-00947-4

Cited by 17 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Increasing the prevalence of complex diseases leads to more OOP payments ( 29 ). Furthermore, increases in OOP payments can have regressive effects, potentially leading to a substantial number of people being pushed into poverty due to health care costs ( 30 , 31 ). Thus, accurate predictions of health spending patterns can help predict how countries will fare in the health care sector ( 31 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Random forest model used to predict the medical out-of-pocket costs of hypertensive patients

Kumagai,

Jakovljević

2024

Front. Public Health

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BackgroundPrecise prediction of out-of-pocket (OOP) costs to improve health policy design is important for governments of countries with national health insurance. Controlling the medical expenses for hypertension, one of the leading causes of stroke and ischemic heart disease, is an important issue for the Japanese government. This study aims to explore the importance of OOP costs for outpatients with hypertension.MethodsTo obtain a precise prediction of the highest quartile group of OOP costs of hypertensive outpatients, we used nationwide longitudinal data, and estimated a random forest (RF) model focusing on complications with other lifestyle-related diseases and the nonlinearities of the data.ResultsThe results of the RF models showed that the prediction accuracy of OOP costs for hypertensive patients without activities of daily living (ADL) difficulties was slightly better than that for all hypertensive patients who continued physician visits during the past two consecutive years. Important variables of the highest quartile of OOP costs were age, diabetes or lipidemia, lack of habitual exercise, and moderate or vigorous regular exercise.ConclusionAs preventing complications of diabetes or lipidemia is important for reducing OOP costs in outpatients with hypertension, regular exercise of moderate or vigorous intensity is recommended for hypertensive patients that do not have ADL difficulty. For hypertensive patients with ADL difficulty, habitual exercise is not recommended.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Random forest model used to predict the medical out-of-pocket costs of hypertensive patients

Kumagai,

Jakovljević

2024

Front. Public Health

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“…However, health security is still a distant dream in these countries due to low public health spending, lack of prepaid health coverage, and high out-of-pocket spending. 22 , 23 The total health expenditure of China, one of the BRICS members, has continuously increased as a share of GDP spending since 1995 and controlling health expenditure is a big challenge for the Chinese government. 17 In particular, CI, a disease with serious medical expenses, is more worthy of study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Big Data-Enabled Analysis of Factors Affecting Medical Expenditure in the Cerebral Infarction of a Developing City in Western China

Zeng,

Zhang,

Guo

et al. 2023

RMHP

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Purpose Cerebral infarction (CI) has been one of the leading causes of death in China since 2017, and controlling the medical expenses of this disease is an urgent issue for the Chinese government. This study aims to explore the important factors that affect the hospitalization expenses of CI patients and to provide a scientific basis for establishing a reasonable reimbursement mechanism and hospitalization expense standard for CI patients. Methods Data from 109,314 inpatients from the Healthcare Security Administration of Chengdu in western China from January 2016 to December 2018 were utilized. Descriptive statistical analysis was used for variable characteristic analysis. The Mann–Whitney test and Kruskal–Wallis test were used for single-factor analysis, and multiple linear stepwise regression was used for single-factor analysis and multiple-factor analysis. Results This study found that the average direct economic burden of CI in Chengdu was approximately 10,569 Chinese yuan (CNY), about 1450 US dollars, the average length of stay (LOS) was 14.47 days, the indirect economic burden was approximately 2817 CNY, and the total economic burden was 13,386 CNY for a CI inpatient. Gender, insurance type, grade of medical institution, the level of payment type, age, LOS, and complications and comorbidities (CCs) are the most important factors affecting CI medical costs. Conclusion Citizens should improve their lifestyle habits to reduce disease risk to avoid the associated medical and economic burdens. Hospitals should improve their medical technology to decrease the LOS and reduce direct medical costs. The government should actively promote the hierarchical diagnosis and treatment policy to reduce the waste of medical resources caused by low-acuity patients going to high-level hospitals for treatment. The National Healthcare Security Administration should optimize the medical insurance payment method and establish a corresponding mechanism to reduce the occurrence of excessive medical treatments such as overuse.

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“…The discount rate is low when calculating the return on investment in the long term. 48 The return to society from health in the long term rather than the short term. Therefore, a low discount rate is used for health outcomes.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Health Hazard Among Shrimp Cultivators in India: A Quantitative Burden of Disease Study

Swain,

Rout,

Jakovljevic

2024

IJGM

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Background The lack of focus on the health status of shrimp cultivators by previous studies while the production of shrimp has been rising over the years after the introduction of the blue revolution in India. The present study estimated the burden of diseases among shrimp cultivators in India. Methods Primary data were collected by using simple random sampling. The sample size was 357. The classification of diseases were made by using the international classification of diseases, tenth revision (ICD-10), version 2019. Disability-adjusted life years (DALY) were used to measure the health status of shrimp cultivators. DALY is the summation of the burden of disease from mortality and morbidity. Sensitive and uncertainty analysis was used by changing the value of the parameter and method, respectively. Results The burden of disease among shrimp cultivators in 2020 ranges from 101.03 DALY based on equal age weightage, without discount rate, and potential life expectancy (DALY 0,0,PLE ) to 84.02 DALY based on unequal age weightage, discount rate, and standardized life expectancy (DALY 1,0.03,SLE ). The burden of disease per 100,000 shrimp cultivators was 28,477.74 DALY and 23,600.84 DALY when calculated by using DALY 0,0,PLE and DALY 1,0.03,SLE method, respectively. The higher burden of diseases from non-communicable diseases was followed by injury and communicable diseases for both methods. The disease burden from mortality was more than two-thirds of the total burden of disease and the rest from morbidity. The burden of disease among shrimp cultivators was sensitive to parameter changes because it changes between 92.10 DALY and 63.03 DALY with the change in the parameter. Uncertainty in the burden of disease among them was due to method variation, which ranges from 120.03 DALY to 74.06 DALY. Conclusion The higher burden of non-communicable diseases, and the lower burden of communicable, and injuries per 100,000 shrimp cultivators compared to the national level in India.

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Future health expenditure in the BRICS countries: a forecasting analysis for 2035

Cited by 17 publications

References 45 publications

Random forest model used to predict the medical out-of-pocket costs of hypertensive patients

Random forest model used to predict the medical out-of-pocket costs of hypertensive patients

Big Data-Enabled Analysis of Factors Affecting Medical Expenditure in the Cerebral Infarction of a Developing City in Western China

Health Hazard Among Shrimp Cultivators in India: A Quantitative Burden of Disease Study

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