Future Global Convective Environments in CMIP6 Models

Lepore, Chiara; Abernathey, Ryan; Henderson, Naomi; Allen, John T.; Tippett, Michael K.

doi:10.1029/2021ef002277

Cited by 50 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…For example, significant reductions are still seen in the southeastern US during DJF, and increases in the Rio de la Plata Basin during JJA. Lepore et al (2021) studied how convective severe weather activity changes in warmer climates for different seasons, based on analyzing environmental proxies of convection in the CMIP6 ensemble. They found that the metrics of frequency of severe weather activity increase globally as the global temperature increases, with higher latitudes showing larger relative changes.…”

Section: Global Picture Of Intense Convectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Warmer Sea Surface Temperature on the Global Pattern of Intense Convection: Insights From a Global Storm Resolving Model

Cheng

Harris

Bretherton

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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Intense convection, featuring large vertical motions and water phase changes, has profound consequences for many aspects of atmospheric and climate science. Intense convection is a major source of weather hazards due to its association with heavy rain, damaging winds, and large hail. Worldwide, the daily economic loss related to intense convection is about 108 million US dollars over the period 1970(WMO, 2021. In the context of climate, intense convection plays a critical role in Earth's energy balance, as intense convection modulates radiative balance through its effect on both the incoming solar radiation and the outgoing longwave radiation. Furthermore, intense convection modulates energy transfer dynamically and thermodynamically within the atmosphere.Previous global model studies (e.g., Diffenbaugh et al., 2013) argued that a warming climate is likely to enhance the frequency and intensity of intense convection. The argument, however, is based on the analysis of convective environmental proxies (e.g., low-level wind shear and convective available potential energy [CAPE]), rather than the simulation of the convection itself. This limitation arises because traditional climate models have too coarse a grid to simulate intense convection explicitly. Alternatively, high-resolution regional dynamical downscaling can simulate intense convection explicitly (e.g., Hoogewind et al., 2017). However, those regional studies cannot reveal the full global distribution of intense convection.

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Section: Global Picture Of Intense Convectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Warmer Sea Surface Temperature on the Global Pattern of Intense Convection: Insights From a Global Storm Resolving Model

Cheng

Harris

Bretherton

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Approximately half of tropopause‐overshooting convection in the United States reaches the stratospheric overworld (potential temperature >380 K; Cooney et al., 2018), suggesting these events can have significant, long‐lasting impacts on stratospheric composition since air extends deeper into the stratosphere and thus takes longer to slowly descend and return to the troposphere (Holton et al., 1995; Homeyer & Bowman, 2021). While trends in overshooting frequency in observations or those projected for future climates have not been explicitly studied, the frequency of such thunderstorms may increase with a warming climate given that the frequency of favorable severe thunderstorm environments is projected to increase (Del Genio et al., 2007; Lepore et al., 2021; Trapp et al., 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…favorable severe thunderstorm environments is projected to increase (Del Genio et al, 2007;Lepore et al, 2021;Trapp et al, 2007).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivities of Cross‐Tropopause Transport in Midlatitude Overshooting Convection to the Lower Stratosphere Environment

Gordon

Homeyer

2022

JGR Atmospheres

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Tropopause‐overshooting convection in the midlatitudes rapidly transports lower troposphere air and cloud material to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), with notable events resulting in the formation of above‐anvil cirrus plumes (AACPs). However, there is limited understanding of how transport driven by overshooting convection and AACP properties are modified by variations in UTLS environments, especially the extent of stratosphere‐to‐troposphere (i.e., downward) transport. Here, AACP development and UTLS transport sensitivities to lower stratosphere stability and the UTLS wind environment are evaluated. The Bryan Cloud Model is used to simulate midlatitude supercell convection and evaluate resulting UTLS composition changes within two common midlatitude thermodynamic environments: a single tropopause and a double tropopause, and two UTLS wind environments: one with a stronger stratospheric wind profile supportive of frequent gravity wave breaking and AACP development and the other with a weaker stratospheric wind profile to suppress gravity wave breaking and discourage AACP formation. Multiple passive tracers and water vapor concentrations are used to evaluate the exchange of air between the troposphere and stratosphere and transport confined to each layer. It is found that greater troposphere‐to‐stratosphere transport (TST) and stratospheric hydration occurs in storms with AACPs, while stratosphere‐to‐troposphere transport (STT) is greater in storms without AACPs. This STT is facilitated by a mechanical oscillation induced by the overshoot. AACP‐producing storms have increased downward transport of stratospheric overworld air to the lowermost stratosphere, which is enhanced within a double tropopause environment. More expansive AACPs, deeper overshoots, and greater TST also occurs in double tropopause environments.

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“…On a different note, numerous geophysical and anthropogenic events emit acoustic waves below the human hearing range of about 20 Hz, i. e., infrasound, including hurricanes and tornadoes. The rate of increase of severe storm environments becomes greater in the northern hemisphere due to temperatures rises [Lepore et al, 2021]. Tornado-producing storm systems emit infrasound up to 2 hours before tornado genesis.…”

Section: Meteorological Phenomenamentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change & Computer Audition: A Call to Action and Overview on Audio Intelligence to Help Save the Planet

Schuller¹,

Akman²,

Chen³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Among the seventeen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) proposed within the 2030 Agenda and adopted by all the United Nations member states, the 13 th SDG is a call for action to combat climate change for a better world. In this work, we provide an overview of areas in which audio intelligence -a powerful but in this context so far hardly considered technology -can contribute to overcome climate-related challenges. We categorise potential computer audition applications according to the five elements of earth, water, air, fire, and aether, proposed by the ancient Greeks in their five element theory; this categorisation serves as a framework to discuss computer audition in relation to different ecological aspects. Earth and water are concerned with the early detection of environmental changes and, thus, with the protection of humans and animals, as well as the monitoring of land and aquatic organisms. Aerial audio is used to monitor and obtain information about bird and insect populations. Furthermore, acoustic measures can deliver relevant information for the monitoring and forecasting of weather and other meteorological phenomena. The fourth considered element is fire. Due to the burning of fossil fuels, the resulting increase in CO 2 emissions and the associated rise in temperature, fire is used as a symbol for man-made climate change and in this context includes the monitoring of noise pollution, machines, as well as the early detection of wildfires. In all these areas, computer audition can help counteract climate change. Aether then corresponds to the technology itself that makes this possible. This work explores these areas and discusses potential applications, while positioning computer audition in relation to methodological alternatives.

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Future Global Convective Environments in CMIP6 Models

Cited by 50 publications

References 67 publications

Impact of Warmer Sea Surface Temperature on the Global Pattern of Intense Convection: Insights From a Global Storm Resolving Model

Impact of Warmer Sea Surface Temperature on the Global Pattern of Intense Convection: Insights From a Global Storm Resolving Model

Sensitivities of Cross‐Tropopause Transport in Midlatitude Overshooting Convection to the Lower Stratosphere Environment

Climate Change & Computer Audition: A Call to Action and Overview on Audio Intelligence to Help Save the Planet

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