Future forest distribution on Finnmarksvidda, North Norway

Karlsen, Stein Rune; Tømmervik, Hans; Johansen, Bernt; Riseth, Jan Åge

doi:10.3354/cr01459

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…They showed that the relationship between the NDVI and interannual temperature variability has weakened substantially in the northern mid and high latitudes since 1980, possibly due to extreme climate events. Indeed, temperature rise increases the frequency of extreme weather events, droughts, wind storms and wildfires, and hence may cause severe, long‐term damage to forest ecosystems, by enhancing the forest vulnerability to insects, pests or fungus pathogen attacks (Bryn & Potthoff, 2018; Hofgaard et al, 2012; Karlsen et al, 2017; Morin et al, 2018). Unlike for agricultural lands, where the spectral response to the influencing factor is quick, in the case of forests this process might be very extended in time, so a significant time lag in correlation between NDVI and meteorological element can occur.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The global warming observed over the past decades has an impact on increased evapotranspiration and water shortage that consequently increase the severity and duration of droughts worldwide (Dai, 2013; Forzieri et al, 2017). Numerous studies (Forzieri et al, 2016; Haarsma et al, 2013) reported that climate change may increase the frequency of extreme weather events, not only droughts, but also devastating wind storms and wildfires in many regions, and hence may cause severe, long‐term damage to forest ecosystems (Bryn & Potthoff, 2018; Hofgaard et al, 2012; Karlsen et al, 2017; Morin et al, 2018). The prolonged and repeatable severe weather conditions—like droughts—gradually impact the forest structure, enhancing the forest vulnerability to insects, pests or fungus pathogen attacks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Influence of climatic conditions on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index variability in forest in Poland (2002–2021)

Kulesza,

Hościło

2023

Meteorological Applications

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The influence of climate change on forest condition is noticeable. Forest ecosystem stress caused by climate change has already been manifested in several parts of Europe, including Poland. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to investigate for the entire area of Poland a long‐term trend and variability of forest greenness expressed as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), derived from two decades (2002–2021) of remote sensing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. In the next step, selected meteorological elements – temperature (T), precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (ETo), derived from ERA5‐Land reanalysis—were used to determine the influence of climatic conditions on the variability of NDVI in forests. The study documents the general greening of forests in Poland in 2002–2021. The greening is mostly visible in central‐eastern Poland, where the annual mean NDVI increased by 0.030 in 20 years, while it is weaker in the Baltic coast and in the southern edges of Poland (increase by 0.009 in 20 years). Overall, the positive, statistically significant trends in annual NDVI prevail over the negative, statistically significant trends and account for 32.5% of forest area, whereas the negative trends account for 3.9%. The study indicates an overall moderate impact of meteorological elements on variability of NDVI in forests in Poland. The most important factors affecting forest condition are P and ETo. The strongest correlations between NDVI and P and ETo reach 0.55 and are located in central Poland, in the form of a belt from western to eastern borders.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of climatic conditions on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index variability in forest in Poland (2002–2021)

Kulesza,

Hościło

2023

Meteorological Applications

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“…As a consequence of the lengthening growing seasons, forests will become more dense and expand northwards and to higher elevations (Karlsen et al 2017). Climate models predict that pronounced increases in temperature and precipitation could transform more than half of the tundra into shrublands before the next century (Pearson et al 2013).…”

Section: Impacts and Strategies In Summermentioning

confidence: 99%

Reindeer Husbandry and Global Environmental Change

Horstkotte¹,

Holand²,

Kumpula³

et al. 2022

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This volume offers a holistic understanding of the environmental and societal challenges that affect reindeer husbandry in Fennoscandia today.Reindeer husbandry is a livelihood with a long traditional heritage and cultural importance. Like many other pastoral societies, reindeer herders are confronted with significant challenges. Covering Norway, Sweden and Finland -three countries with many differences and similarities -this volume examines how reindeer husbandry is affected by and responds to global environmental change and resource extraction in boreal and arctic social-ecological systems. Beginning with an historical overview of reindeer husbandry, the volume analyses the realities of the present from different perspectives and disciplines. Genetics, behavioural ecology of reindeer, other forms of land use, pastoralists' norms and knowledge, bio-economy and governance structures all set the stage for the complex internal and externally imposed dynamics within reindeer husbandry. In-depth analyses are devoted to particularly urgent challenges, such as land-use conflicts, climate change and predation, identified as having a high potential to shape the future pathways of the pastoral identity and productivity. These futures, with their risks and opportunities, are explored in the final section, offering a synthesis of the comparative approach between the three countries that runs as a recurring theme through the book. With its richness and depth, this volume contributes significantly to the understanding of the substantial impacts on pastoralist communities in northernmost Europe today, while highlighting viable pathways to maintaining reindeer husbandry for the future. This book will be of great interest to students and scholars of both the natural and social sciences who work on natural resource management, global environmental change, pastoralism, ecology, social-ecological systems, rangeland management and Indigenous studies.

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“…The influence of climate change on vegetation, especially on forest conditions, is highlighted in several studies (Buras et al, 2020;Schuldt et al, 2020;Prȃvȃlie et al, 2022;Yang et al, 2019;Liu et al, 2015). It has the potential to cause severe, long-term damage to forest ecosystems by increasing the frequency of extreme weather events, such as droughts, destructive windstorms and wildfires in many regions (Bryn and Potthoff, 2018;Hofgaard et al, 2012;Karlsen et al, 2017;Morin et al, 2018). That is why monitoring vegetation dynamics and precisely characterising the response of vegetation to changing climate is essential in or-der to maintain a sustainable environment (Tomlinson et al, 2011;Barbosa et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coherency and time lag analyses between MODIS vegetation indices and climate across forests and grasslands in the European temperate zone

Kulesza,

Hościło

2024

Biogeosciences

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Abstract. Identifying the climate-induced variability in the condition of vegetation is particularly important in the context of recent climate change and plants' impact on the mitigation of climate change. In this paper, we present the coherence and time lags in the spectral response of three individual vegetation types in the European temperate zone to the influencing meteorological factors in the period 2002–2022. Vegetation condition in broadleaved forest, coniferous forest and pastures was measured with monthly anomalies of two spectral indices – normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI). As meteorological elements we used monthly anomalies of temperature (T), precipitation (P), vapour pressure deficit (VPD), evapotranspiration (ETo), and the teleconnection indices North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP). Periodicity in the time series was assessed using the wavelet transform, but no significant intra- or interannual cycles were detected in both vegetation (NDVI and EVI) and meteorological variables. In turn, coherence between NDVI and EVI and meteorological elements was described using the methods of wavelet coherence and Pearson's linear correlation with time lag. In the European temperate zone analysed in this study, NAO produces strong coherence mostly for forests in a circa 1-year band and a weaker coherence in a circa 3-year band. For pastures these interannual patterns are hardly recognisable. The strongest relationships occur between conditions of the vegetation and T and ETo – they show high coherence in both forests and pastures. There is a significant cohesion with the 8–16-month (ca. 1-year) and 20–32-month (ca. 2-year) bands. More time-lagged significant correlations between vegetation indices and T occur for forests than for pastures, suggesting a significant lag in the forests' response to the changes in T.

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Future forest distribution on Finnmarksvidda, North Norway

Cited by 6 publications

References 51 publications

Influence of climatic conditions on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index variability in forest in Poland (2002–2021)

Influence of climatic conditions on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index variability in forest in Poland (2002–2021)

Reindeer Husbandry and Global Environmental Change

Coherency and time lag analyses between MODIS vegetation indices and climate across forests and grasslands in the European temperate zone

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