Future Floods in Bangladesh under 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C Global Warming Scenarios

Mohammed, Khaled; Islam, A. K. M. Saiful; Islam, G. M. Tarekul; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Khan, Jamal Uddin; Bala, Sujit Kumar; Das, Mohan Kumar

doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0001705

Cited by 39 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 68 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This may also vary by return period, for example table 3 in [20], however these numbers have large uncertainty ranges (e.g. figure 5 in [22]). Furthermore, a comparison of precipitation and runoff for models used in this study, show consistent changes between these two variables ( figure S3).…”

Section: Scaling Discharge From Future Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies for the GBM have predicted increases in future peak river discharge [14][15][16][17][18] and flood extent [19]. Recent studies [3,[20][21][22], looked at flood risk at 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming, for changes to peak discharge of the Brahmaputra or global flood risk including the Ganges-Brahmaputra. However, these used high emissions scenarios to determine 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Enhanced flood risk with 1.5 °C global warming in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna basin

Uhe

Mitchell

Bates

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Flood hazard is a global problem, but regions such as south Asia, where people's livelihoods are highly dependent on water resources, can be affected disproportionally. The 2017 monsoon flooding in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin, with record river levels observed, resulted in ∼1200 deaths, and dramatic loss of crops and infrastructure. The recent Paris Agreement called for research into impacts avoided by stabilizing climate at 1.5°C over 2°C global warming above pre-industrial conditions. Climate model scenarios representing these warming levels were combined with a high-resolution flood hazard model over the GBM region. The simulations of 1.5°C and 2°C warming indicate an increase in extreme precipitation and corresponding flood hazard over the GBM basin compared to the current climate. So, for example, even with global warming limited to 1.5°C, for extreme precipitation events such as the south Asian crisis in 2017 there is a detectable increase in the likelihood in flooding. The additional ∼0.6°C warming needed to take us from current climate to 1.5°C highlights the changed flood risk even with low levels of warming.

show abstract

Section: Scaling Discharge From Future Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhanced flood risk with 1.5 °C global warming in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna basin

Uhe

Mitchell

Bates

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Almost 2.6 million ha crops are being affected and damaged every year caused by severe floods in Bangladesh. A recent study by Mohammed and Khaled [62] found that the magnitude of floods may be much more severe in the upcoming future in Bangladesh. They have projected that if the temperature will increase by 2°C, within a hundred year time period the flood flows will increase by 29%, 24% and 38% respectively in Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers [62].…”

Section: Impacts Of Floods and Cyclones On Crop Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A recent study by Mohammed and Khaled [62] found that the magnitude of floods may be much more severe in the upcoming future in Bangladesh. They have projected that if the temperature will increase by 2°C, within a hundred year time period the flood flows will increase by 29%, 24% and 38% respectively in Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers [62]. In 2004, the devastating flood inundated 38% of the total countries land and caused heavy loss of crops and human life [30,63].…”

Section: Impacts Of Floods and Cyclones On Crop Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Production in Bangladesh: A Review

2019

JAC

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change and its impact on human-environment are immeasurable because of its multidimensional effects. But the effect is not same for all countries, it depends on the countries geographical settings. Alongside location, education of the people, environmental awareness, somewhat might minimize the probability of loss in response to any kinds of disasters. Undertaken study was conducted based on an extensive published literatures (197-between 1995 and 2018) review with a view to consolidating the possible impacts of climate change on crop production in Bangladesh. It has found that already the impact has begun badly in Bangladesh. Temperature is gradually rising, frequency of floods, river bank erosion, storm surge, magnitude of cyclone, salinity intrusion, and the volatility of rainfall has increased comparing to past. All these led to the probability of decreasing the crop production. As climate change has become a great concern for countries food security, it is now the appropriate time to take and install proper rules and regulations through inflexible attitude. With the help of various international and national organizations government of Bangladesh inordinately trying to reduce the consequences of climate change. A comprehensive measurement must make sure to enhance the capability of encountering climate change, otherwise it will cost of enormous loss, especially on agriculture in Bangladesh.

show abstract

“…Whitehead et al [5] projected the GBM flow using the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) scenarios of IPCC and showed an increase in the flow of GBM basins by the end of the twenty-first century. The changes in extreme flows of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river system under the RCP 8.5 scenario are recently modeled by Mohammed et al [6] with SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). This study also finds that mean monthly flows and flood flows will significantly increase in the 2080s of the RCP 8.5 scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-induced flood inundation for the Arial Khan River of Bangladesh using open-source SWAT and HEC-RAS model for RCP8.5-SSP5 scenario

et al. 2021

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Bangladesh is one of the largest flood-prone deltas of the GBM (Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna) basins, and recently, it is categorized as the 7th worst climate-affected country in the world. Future climate change along with economic development, urbanization, and increase in population may worsen this situation manifolds. To cope with future flood situations and lessen probable flood losses, it is essential to develop flood maps of the major flood-prone rivers of Bangladesh considering climate change scenarios. In this study, the flood inundation of the Arial Khan River and its floodplain has been assessed for the predicted climate change scenario of RCP 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) using open-source mathematical models. A calibrated and validated hydrologic model of GBM basins in SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model has been used to estimate the future flow magnitudes at Bahadurabad Transit (Brahmaputra River) and Hardinge Bridge (Ganges River) using extreme emission scenario RCP 8.5. Using the flow magnitude of these two stations as the upstream boundaries, an HEC-RAS 1D model has been set up for the Brahmaputra, Ganges, and Padma rivers for generating future flow magnitude at the offtake of the Arial Khan River. Later, an HEC-RAS 1D-2D coupled model is set up for the Arial Khan River floodplain and flood maps are prepared considering flood depth, duration, and inundation extent. The flood assessment for different projections of RCP 8.5 shows that there is an increasing trend of flood in terms of depth, duration, and inundation from the 2020s to the 2080s. Hence, the floodplain becomes more hazardous by the end of this century. The climate change impact on the projected population for the RCP 8.5 scenario is assessed under SSP5 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5) which indicates that the total flood-affected population will be nearly twice in the 2080s compared to the 2020s. So, future climate change is going to have a dreadful effect on the flood situation of the Arial Khan River floodplain.

show abstract

Future Floods in Bangladesh under 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C Global Warming Scenarios

Cited by 39 publications

References 68 publications

Enhanced flood risk with 1.5 °C global warming in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna basin

Enhanced flood risk with 1.5 °C global warming in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna basin

Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Production in Bangladesh: A Review

Climate-induced flood inundation for the Arial Khan River of Bangladesh using open-source SWAT and HEC-RAS model for RCP8.5-SSP5 scenario

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About