Future fire risk and the greenhouse gas mitigation potential of forest rehabilitation in British Columbia, Canada

Metsaranta, Juha M.; Hudson, B.; Smyth, Calvin M.; Fellows, Max; Kurz, Werner A.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120729

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 42 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Changes in natural disturbance regimes could become a major issue beyond the period covered by our study (2018–2050) and result in additional future uncertainty. Therefore, additional research is needed to ensure that the combined impacts of natural disturbances and forest management on the carbon balance are captured, especially in the context of a changing climate that is expected to dramatically alter forest disturbance dynamics (Metsaranta et al, 2023; Seidl et al, 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Under what circumstances can the forest sector contribute to 2050 climate change mitigation targets? A study from forest ecosystems to landfill methane emissions for the province of Quebec, Canada

et al. 2023

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Meeting climate change mitigation targets by 2050, as outlined in international pledges, involves determining optimal strategies for forest management, wood supply, the substitution of greenhouse gas‐intensive materials and energy sources, and wood product disposal. Our study quantified the cumulative mitigation potential by 2050 of the forest sector in the province of Quebec, Canada, using several alternative strategies and assessed under what circumstances the sector could contribute to the targets. We used the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector to project ecosystems emissions and sequestration of seven alternative and one baseline (business‐as‐usual [BaU]) forest management scenarios over the 2018–2050 period. Three baskets of wood products were used in a Harvested Wood Products model to predict wood product emissions. The mitigation potential was determined by comparing the cumulative CO2e budget of each alternative scenario to the BaU. The proportion of methane emissions from landfills (RCH4%) and the required displacement factor (RDF) to achieve mitigation benefits were assessed both independently and jointly. The fastest and most efficient way to improve mitigation outcomes of the forest sector of Quebec is to reduce end‐of‐life methane emissions from wood products. By reducing methane emissions, the RDF for achieving mitigation benefits through intensification strategies can be reduced from 1.2–2.3 to 0–0.9 tC/tC, thus reaching the current provincial mean DF threshold (0.9). Both a reduction and an increase in the harvested volume have the potential to provide mitigation benefits with adequate RCH4% and RDF. Increased carbon sequestration in ecosystems, innovations in long‐lived wood products, and optimal substitution in markets offer potential avenues for the forest sector to contribute to mitigation benefits but are subject to significant uncertainties. Methane emission reduction at the end of wood product service life is emerging as a valuable approach to enhance mitigation benefits of the forest sector.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Under what circumstances can the forest sector contribute to 2050 climate change mitigation targets? A study from forest ecosystems to landfill methane emissions for the province of Quebec, Canada

et al. 2023

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Accordingly, we obtained yearly gridded burned areas occurring after PPT with a 0.25° resolution in Canada and the US from 2002 to 2018. Note that though NBAC and MTBS datasets have been widely used in assessing fire dynamics and their attributions [51][52][53][54] , it should be cautious when using these national-scale fire perimeters data. Because they are generated through completely different approaches and from different data sources, and even within one product some discrepancies could create uncertainties in the estimated burned area boundaries 49,50 .…”

Section: Mtbs Developed By the Us Geological Survey Center For Earth ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Earlier peak photosynthesis timing escalates global wildfires

Wu,

Lai,

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

More intense fire weather due to climate change is implicated as a key driver of recent increases in regional wildfire activity. As fuel stocks, the roles of vegetation itself and its phenology change in wildfire dynamics, however, are not fully appreciated. Using long-term satellite-based burned areas and photosynthesis observations, we reveal that an earlier peak photosynthesis timing (PPT) acts to escalate wildfires, with an increase in the global average burned fraction by 0.021% (~2.20 Mha) for every additional day of PPT advancement. Satellite observations and the Earth System modeling consistently show that this fire escalation is due to intensified drought conditions and increased fuel availability associated with earlier PPT. Current fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models can reproduce the observed negative correlation between PPT and burned area but underestimate the strength of the relationship notably. Given the continued PPT advancement owing to climate change, the bioclimatic effects of vegetation phenology change suggest a pervasive upward pressure on future wildfires.

show abstract

“…The GCBM was built on the open source platform of the spatially explicit Full Lands Integration Tool (FLINT) developed by Moja Global [25]. The GCBM uses the scientific algorithms of the CBM-CFS3 in a spatially explicit modeling environment [3,29,32]. The CBM-CFS3 model uses stand growth and yield curves, tree species, age class, disturbance events, and climate conditions to quantify the effects of past and future land use and land-use changes on forest carbon dynamics and to simulate the carbon stock changes in the aboveground and belowground biomass, dead organic matter (DOM), and soil carbon content at the stand and landscape levels [3,15,27].…”

Section: Generic Carbon Budget Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The generic carbon budget model (GCBM) is a spatially explicit model that can simulate the carbon dynamics of a region in a grid-based format and at a user-determined scale [25][26][27]. The model can be applied to various aspects of forest management, e.g., climate change mitigation, conservation, the distribution and management of mosses and peatlands, and fire severity; the model can be applied to support forest management efforts in various countries [28][29][30][31].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generic Carbon Budget Model for Assessing National Carbon Dynamics toward Carbon Neutrality: A Case Study of Republic of Korea

Ko,

Song,

Fellows

et al. 2024

Forests

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Forests play a crucial role in South Korea’s carbon neutrality goal and require sustainable management strategies to overcome age-class imbalances. The Generic Carbon Budget Model (GCBM) offers a spatially explicit approach to simulate carbon dynamics at a regional scale. In this study, we utilized the GCBM to analyze the carbon budget of forests in South Korea and produce spatiotemporal maps for distribution of the forest biomass. The growth parameters of five representative tree species (Pinus densiflora Siebold & Zucc., Larix kaempferi Carr., Pinus koraiensis Siebold & Zucc., Quercus mongolica Fisch. ex Ledeb., Quercus variabilis Blume), which are the main species in South Korea, were used to operate the model. In addition, spatial data for harvest and thinning management activities were used to analyze the effects of anthropogenic activities. In 2020, the aboveground and belowground biomass were 112.98 and 22.84 tC ha−1, and the net primary productivity was 8.30 tC ha−1 year−1. These results were verified using comparison with statistics, a literature review, and MODIS NPP. In particular, broadleaf is higher than conifer forest in net primary production. The Canadian GCBM with Korean forest inventory data and yield curves successfully estimated the aboveground and belowground biomass of forests in South Korea. Our study demonstrates that these estimates can be mapped in detail, thereby supporting decision-makers and stakeholders in analyzing the carbon budget of the forests in South Korea and developing novel schemes that can serve regional and national aims related to forest management, wood utilization, and ecological preservation. Further studies are needed to improve the initialization of dead organic matter pools, given the large-scale afforestation efforts in recent decades that have established South Korea’s forests on predominantly non-forest sites.

show abstract

Future fire risk and the greenhouse gas mitigation potential of forest rehabilitation in British Columbia, Canada

Cited by 6 publications

References 42 publications

Under what circumstances can the forest sector contribute to 2050 climate change mitigation targets? A study from forest ecosystems to landfill methane emissions for the province of Quebec, Canada

Under what circumstances can the forest sector contribute to 2050 climate change mitigation targets? A study from forest ecosystems to landfill methane emissions for the province of Quebec, Canada

Earlier peak photosynthesis timing escalates global wildfires

Generic Carbon Budget Model for Assessing National Carbon Dynamics toward Carbon Neutrality: A Case Study of Republic of Korea

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About