Future drought characteristics through a multi-model ensemble from CMIP6 over South Asia

Zhai, Jun; Mondal, Sanjit Kumar; Fischer, Thomas; Wang, Yanjun; Su, Buda; Huang, Jinlong; Tao, Hui; Wang, Guojie; Ullah, Waheed; Uddin, Md. Jalal

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105111

Cited by 164 publications

(85 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…The study found that there were more drought episodes under the moderate and severe conditions at the coast of the country in the south, while at the northern parts, there were persistent droughts of higher severity. Many other studies have also reported drought occurrences in the country [36][37][38]. Similar findings have been reported from North Korea [56][57][58], Japan [58], and China [59,60] that neighbor South Korea.…”

Section: Future Droughtsupporting

confidence: 81%

“…The SWAT model can perform runoff analysis of the watershed using relatively simple input data. In previous studies [36][37][38], meteorological drought indices such as SPI, SPEI, and potential evaporation were analyzed, but this study used a hydrological drought index. Thus, three drought indices, namely, SPI, SPEI, and SDI, were calculated for 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month durations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Jiang et al [32] found that models have improved from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to CMIP6 for climatological temperature and precipitation and winter monsoon but display little improvement for the interannual temperature and precipitation variability and summer monsoon in East Asia monsoon. Therefore, the comparative studies between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 have been conducted all over the world in terms of spatial distributions [33], uncertainty analysis [34], future projections [35], and drought characteristics of India [36] and China [37,38].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparison of Projection in Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts in the Cheongmicheon Watershed for RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5

et al. 2021

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Due to the recent appearance of shares socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, there have been many studies that compare the results between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)5 and CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs). This study attempted to project future drought characteristics in the Cheongmicheon watershed using SSP2-4.5 of Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator-coupled model (ACCESS-CM2) in addition to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 of ACCESS 1-3 of the same institute. The historical precipitation and temperature data of ACCESS-CM2 were generated better than those of ACCESS 1-3. Two meteorological drought indices, namely, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used to project meteorological drought while a hydrological drought index, Standardized Streamflow Index (SDI), was used to project the hydrological drought characteristics. The metrological data of GCMs were bias-corrected using quantile mapping method and the streamflow was obtained using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and bias-corrected meteorological data. As a result, there were large differences of drought occurrences and severities between RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5 for the values of SPI, SPEI, and SDI. The differences in the minimum values of drought index between near (2021–2060) and far futures (2061–2100) were very small in SSP2-4.5, while those in RCP4.5 were very large. In addition, the longest drought period from SDI was the largest because the variation in precipitation usually affects the streamflow with a lag. Therefore, it was concluded that it is important to consider both CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs in establishing the drought countermeasures for the future period.

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Section: Future Droughtsupporting

confidence: 81%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparison of Projection in Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts in the Cheongmicheon Watershed for RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5

et al. 2021

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“…Heat stress alone, and in combination with drought, is becoming another major constraint to maize production (Cairns et al 2013a ). Temperatures are projected to increase by at least 1 °C, depending on the emissions scenario (Zhai et al 2020 ). An increase in temperature of 2 °C would result in a greater reduction in maize yields than a decrease in precipitation of 20% (Lobell and Burke 2010 ).…”

Section: Climate-induced Stresses On Tropical Maizementioning

confidence: 99%

Beat the stress: breeding for climate resilience in maize for the tropical rainfed environments

Cairns²,

et al. 2021

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Key message Intensive public sector breeding efforts and public-private partnerships have led to the increase in genetic gains, and deployment of elite climate-resilient maize cultivars for the stress-prone environments in the tropics. Abstract Maize (Zea mays L.) plays a critical role in ensuring food and nutritional security, and livelihoods of millions of resource-constrained smallholders. However, maize yields in the tropical rainfed environments are now increasingly vulnerable to various climate-induced stresses, especially drought, heat, waterlogging, salinity, cold, diseases, and insect pests, which often come in combinations to severely impact maize crops. The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), in partnership with several public and private sector institutions, has been intensively engaged over the last four decades in breeding elite tropical maize germplasm with tolerance to key abiotic and biotic stresses, using an extensive managed stress screening network and on-farm testing system. This has led to the successful development and deployment of an array of elite stress-tolerant maize cultivars across sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Further increasing genetic gains in the tropical maize breeding programs demands judicious integration of doubled haploidy, high-throughput and precise phenotyping, genomics-assisted breeding, breeding data management, and more effective decision support tools. Multi-institutional efforts, especially public–private alliances, are key to ensure that the improved maize varieties effectively reach the climate-vulnerable farming communities in the tropics, including accelerated replacement of old/obsolete varieties.

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“…It was found to deliver a consistent result for both temporal and spatial scales. Likewise, several studies have used SPEI to assess drought events in different regions (Benlin et al 2017;Ahmed et al 2018;Polong et al 2019;Uddin et al 2020;Zhai et al 2020) Although SPI is among methods recommended by the World Meteorological Organization to monitor drought events (Svoboda and Fuchs 2017a), only a few studies were conducted over Africa, specifically over the Central East Africa region. Most of the studies conducted over Africa revealed that the SPI method can provide consistent results.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Drought Event, its Trend and Teleconnected Factors Over Burundi, Central East Africa

Nkunzimana¹,

Wang²,

Abdallah³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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This study assessed the drought events across Burundi for 37 years ranging from 1981 to 2017. The drought assessment was conducted using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 1, 3, 6 and 12-month time scales. The Mann Kendall and Modified Mann Kendall trend tests and Sen’s slope statistic tests were used to analyse the spatiotemporal drought trend. The overall analysis of SPI-3, SPI-6 and SPI-12 outputs revealed that the Northern part of Burundi was the most threatened by dry events, and more than 80% of the extremely and severely dry events occurred within the period 1993–2000. The drought magnitude varied highly in the short rains season (SOND) than during the long rains season (MAM) specifically during the 1990s decade. The cumulative frequency of extremely dry events was very high in the North with 5.2%, 6.1% and 7.4 % at 3, 6 and 12-month time scales respectively. Likewise, the northern part experienced both short, medium and long dry periods, thus 88 consecutive dry months within only 8 years. The North and East regions exhibited a positive increasing trend over annual and seasonal time scales at both 3, 6, and 12 months of SPI analysis while the mountainous region and the South experienced a significant decreasing trend. The first abrupt point issued by forward and backward sequential statistics occurred in 1990, the year corresponding to the beginning of the driest period. Dry years are associated with circulation anomalies over the Indian Ocean and La Nina events.

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Future drought characteristics through a multi-model ensemble from CMIP6 over South Asia

Cited by 164 publications

References 68 publications

Comparison of Projection in Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts in the Cheongmicheon Watershed for RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5

Comparison of Projection in Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts in the Cheongmicheon Watershed for RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5

Beat the stress: breeding for climate resilience in maize for the tropical rainfed environments

Assessment of Drought Event, its Trend and Teleconnected Factors Over Burundi, Central East Africa

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