Future Climate Projections

Gualdi, Silvio; Somot, Samuel; May, Wilhelm; Castellari, Sergio; Déqué, Michel; Adani, Mario; Artale, V.; Bellucci, Alessio; Breitgand, Joseph S.; Carillo, Adriana; Cornes, Richard; Dell’Aquila, Alessandro; Dubois, Clotilde; Efthymiadis, Dimitrios; Elizalde, Alberto; Gimeno, Luis; Goodess, Clare; Harzallah, Ali; Krichak, S. O.; Kuglitsch, Franz G.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; L'Hévéder, B.; Li, Laurent; Lionello, Piero; Luterbacher, Jürg; Mariotti, Annarita; Navarra, Antonio; Nissen, Katrin M.; Oddo, Paolo; Ruti, Paolo; Sanna, Antonella; Sannino, Gianmaria; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Sevault, Florence; Struglia, Maria Vittoria; Toreti, Andrea; Ulbrich, Uwe; Xoplaki, Elena

doi:10.1007/978-94-007-5781-3_3

Cited by 35 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…Significant progresses has been made on climate projections for the Mediterranean region, both through new models (e.g., Li et al 2012) and new simulations (e.g., Planton et al 2012;Gualdi et al, 2013). Besides dynamical downscaling by regional climate models, statistical downscaling is a major tool to derive climate change projections at regional or even local scales.…”

Section: Climate Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The climate of the Mediterranean region: research progress and climate change impacts

et al. 2014

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Section: Climate Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The climate of the Mediterranean region: research progress and climate change impacts

et al. 2014

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“…However, if these waters were significantly fresher in the future, as the two models used here seem to suggest, they could partially counteract the forcing of the local heat and freshwater fluxes and result in a slowing down of the salinization of the Mediterranean or even in a freshening (see e.g. Gualdi et al 2011). Moreover, it must be noted that the projected increase in the E-P+R budget of the Mediterranean (the process leading the long-term variability of Gibraltar fluxes, see e.g.…”

Section: On the Physical Processes Related To The Sst And Sss Projectmentioning

confidence: 81%

Regional marine climate scenarios in the NE Atlantic sector close to the Spanish shores

Gomis

Álvarez-Fanjul²,

Jordà

et al. 2016

Sci. Mar.

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Summary:We present an overview of the changes expected during the 21st century in key marine parameters (sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, sea level and waves) in the sector of the NE Atlantic Ocean close to the Spanish shores. Under the A1B scenario, open-sea surface temperatures would increase by 1°C to 1.5°C by 2050 as a consequence of global ocean warming. Near the continental margin, however, the global temperature rise would be counteracted by an enhancement of the seasonal upwelling. Sea surface salinity is likely to decrease in the future, mainly due to the advection of high-latitude fresher waters from ice melting. Mean sea level rise has been quantified as 15-20 cm by 2050, but two contributions not accounted for by our models must be added: the mass redistribution derived from changes in the large-scale circulation (which in the NE Atlantic may be as large as 15 cm in 2050 or 35 cm by 2100) and the increase in the ocean mass content due to the melting of continental ice (for which estimates are still uncertain). The meteorological tide shows very small changes, and therefore extreme sea levels would be higher in the 21st century, but mostly due to the increase in mean sea level, not to an increase in the storminess. The wave projections point towards slightly smaller significant wave heights, but the changes projected are of the same order as the natural variability.Keywords: climate change; surface temperature; surface salinity; sea level, waves. Escenarios climáticos marinos regionalizados en el sector NE del Océano Atlántico cercano a las costas españolasResumen: En este trabajo se presenta una visión de conjunto de los cambios esperados en el siglo XXI en los principales parámetros marinos (temperatura y salinidad superficiales, nivel del mar y oleaje) en el sector NE del Océano Atlántico más cercano a las costas españolas. Bajo el escenario A1B, se prevé que la temperatura superficial en mar abierto suba del orden de 1-1.5°C para el año 2050, como consecuencia del calentamiento global del océano. Cerca del margen continental, sin embargo, el aumento de la temperatura superficial podría ser contrarrestado por un aumento del afloramiento estacional. La salinidad superficial es probable que disminuya en el futuro, debido principalmente a la advección desde latitudes más altas de aguas provenientes de la fusión de hielos polares. El aumento del nivel del mar obtenido de los modelos se ha cuantificado en 15 a 20 cm para el año 2050, pero esa estima no incluye dos contribuciones adicionales que deben ser añadidas: la redistribución de masa derivada de los cambios en la circulación a gran escala (que en el Atlántico NE se ha estimado en unos 15 cm para 2050 i en 35 cm para 2100) y el aumento de masa debido a la fusión de hielos continentales (para el cual las estimas son todavía inciertas). La marea meteorológica muestra cambios muy pequeños, y por tanto el aumento de los niveles extremos del mar en el siglo XXI serán debidos principalmente al aumento del nivel medio, no a un aumento en la ...

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“…They also showed large differences in the net heat flux values obtained from a combination of different data sets (−3, +5 and +9 Wm ). The CIRCE simulations provided net heat flux values corresponding to a heat loss by the sea and satisfying the heat budget closure (−6 to −2 Wm −2 for the period 1961-1990Gualdi et al 2013b;Dubois et al 2012). The last authors concluded that oceanatmosphere coupling is a necessary approach for consistent climate simulations of the Mediterranean Sea.…”

Section: −2mentioning

confidence: 84%

“…From the CIRCE simulations the ensemble average mean values of these fluxes are found +4.31, +19.59 and −15.27 Wm −2 for the period . However the CIRCE simulations showed large intermodel spread and, as stated by Gualdi et al (2013b), their heat flux estimates should be carefully considered.…”

Section: Hc T = Shf + Ghf + Bhf + Schf + Rhfmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The same configuration was used to study the long-term changes in the Mediterranean Sea (Gualdi et al 2013b) and to investigate the impact of tide on the thermohaline circulation of the Mediterranean basin (Harzallah et al 2014). The model grid is curvilinear and extends westward over the Atlantic Ocean to nearly 7.88° W. The vertical resolution uses 27 σ layers.…”

Section: Appendix: Description Of Models and Simulations Usedmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Long term evolution of heat budget in the Mediterranean Sea from Med-CORDEX forced and coupled simulations

et al. 2016

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temperature and is found to be significantly correlated for most models with the net heat flux at the sea surface (average correlation ~0.5) but not with the net heat flux through the Strait of Gibraltar (average correlation ~0.2), suggesting that in the considered RCSMs the interannual variability of the heat content rate is mainly driven by the surface heat fluxes. The resemblance between the simulated and observed heat content rates is stronger in the forced models than in the coupled ones. This is explained by the stronger constraint applied to the forced models by the use of the surface temperature relaxation to observations. The temperature of the outflowing water through the Strait of Gibraltar shows positive and significant trends, also higher in the coupled models. It is suggested that the Mediterranean Sea warming found in most models and in particular in the coupled ones, induces a change of the hydrographic conditions that affects the Strait of Gibraltar. Keywords Mediterranean Sea · Heat budget · Heat content · Strait of Gibraltar · Regional climate modelsAbstract This study evaluates the Mediterranean Sea heat budget components from a set of forced and coupled simulations performed in the frame of the Med-CORDEX project. The simulations use regional climate system models (RCSMs) dedicated to the Mediterranean area and driven by the ERA40/ERA-Interim reanalyses. The study focuses on the period 1980-2010. Interannual variations of the average net heat flux at the sea surface are consistent among models but the spread in the mean values is large (from −4.8 to +2.2 Wm −2 ) with the coupled models showing the lowest heat loss from the sea. For the heat flux at the Strait of Gibraltar both interannual variations and mean values show a large intermodel spread. The basin average temperature shows positive trends with highest values in the coupled models; it also shows interannual variations that are in good agreement with observations. The heat content rate is calculated based on the derivative of the average This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Med-CORDEX, an international coordinated initiative dedicated to the multi-component regional climate modelling (atmosphere, ocean, land surface, river) of the Mediterranean under the umbrella of HyMeX, CORDEX, and Med-CLIVAR and coordinated by Samuel Somot, Paolo Ruti, Erika Coppola, Gianmaria Sannino, Bodo Ahrens, and Gabriel Jordà.

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Future Climate Projections

Cited by 35 publications

References 77 publications

The climate of the Mediterranean region: research progress and climate change impacts

The climate of the Mediterranean region: research progress and climate change impacts

Regional marine climate scenarios in the NE Atlantic sector close to the Spanish shores

Long term evolution of heat budget in the Mediterranean Sea from Med-CORDEX forced and coupled simulations

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