Future climate or land use? Attribution of changes in surface runoff in a typical Sahelian landscape

Yonaba, Roland; Mounirou, Lawani Adjadi; Fowé, Tazen; Koïta, Mahamadou; Biaou, Angelbert; Zouré, Cheick Oumar; Queloz, Pierre; Karambiri, Harouna; Yacouba, Hamma

doi:10.5802/crgeos.179

Cited by 13 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 87 publications

(124 reference statements)

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“…The loss model calculates surface runoff volume from the supplied rainfall [40,58]. In this study, the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) loss method [53,61] is applied for its simplicity and wide applications, which have proven to be effective in previous modeling a empts in similar environments [1,16,29,62]. Equation ( 1) describes the SCS-CN [53]:…”

Section: Loss Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hydrological modeling offers an interesting framework for large-scale analysis and assessment of the rainfall-runoff relationship [25][26][27][28][29], especially in the context of the SRB. Several hydrological modeling studies have been conducted in the SRB in West Africa, focusing on various aspects such as land surface modeling [30], statistical discharge time series analysis [31][32][33], hydrological rainfall-runoff assessments [21,23,[34][35][36][37][38] and the development of flood early warning systems [39].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Daily Simulation of the Rainfall–Runoff Relationship in the Sirba River Basin in West Africa: Insights from the HEC-HMS Model

Souley Tangam,

Yonaba,

Niang

et al. 2024

Hydrology

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This study focuses on the Sirba River Basin (SRB), a transboundary West African catchment of 38,950 km2 shared by Burkina Faso and Niger, which contributes to flooding downstream in Niamey (Niger). The study uses the HEC-HMS hydrological model to explore the dynamics of the daily rainfall–runoff relationship over the period 2006–2020. The model is calibrated using observed rainfall at 13 meteorological stations within the river basin and observed discharges at the Garbey Kourou hydrometric station outlet. Two types of simulation are compared: (i) a continuous simulation (CS) over the period 2006–2020 and (ii) an event-based simulation (ES) using selected major flood events in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2020. The results showed satisfactory model performance under both modeling schemes (R2 = 0.84–0.87 for CS and R2 = 0.94–0.98 for ES), with a superior performance of ES over CS. Also, significant differences in the distribution of calibrated model parameters for the percent impervious and the attenuation flood wave factor were observed. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the curve number, initial abstraction, lag time and routing time factors were influential on the model outputs. The study therefore underscores the model’s robustness and contributes crucial insights for flood control management and infrastructure planning in the SRB.

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Section: Loss Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Daily Simulation of the Rainfall–Runoff Relationship in the Sirba River Basin in West Africa: Insights from the HEC-HMS Model

Souley Tangam,

Yonaba,

Niang

et al. 2024

Hydrology

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“…In the past, the SWAT model has been applied to assess runoff from changes in climate conditions and various land uses [39][40][41][42]. In Thailand, there have been various analyses of land use changes on runoff that also used SWAT models [43].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of SWAT Model for Assessment of Surface Runoff in Flash Flood Areas

Suwannachai,

Sriworamas,

Sivanpheng

et al. 2024

Water

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In addition to changes in the amount of rain, changes in land use upstream are considered a factor that directly affects the maximum runoff flow in a basin, especially in areas that have experienced floods and flash floods. This research article presents the application of the SWAT model to assess runoff in areas that have experienced flash floods, in order to analyze the proportion of land use change to the maximum runoff. Study areas that experienced flash floods were in three basins in Thailand (Lam Saphung Basin, Phrom River Basin, and Chern River Basin Part 1, which is a sub-basin of the Nam Chi River Basin). This study analyzed two main factors that influenced runoff in the river basin by considering two simulation situations: (1) changes in land use affecting runoff assessed by considering land use maps in 2006, 2008, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2021 when using rainfall data only in the year 2021 for all cases and (2) changes in the amount of rainfall influencing runoff by considering the rainfall records in 2006, 2008, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2021 when using the land use data only in the year 2021 for all cases. The results of the study found that the SWAT model can be effectively applied to estimate annual runoff in areas that have experienced flash floods under eight parameters with R2 values of 0.74, 0.82, and 0.74 for the Lam Saphung River Basin, Phrom River Basin, and Chern River Basin Part 1, respectively. In addition, it was found that the proportion of land use changes that involved changes from forested areas to residential areas was the greatest from 2008 to 2010 in the Phrom River Basin and Chern River Basin Part 1. This resulted in an increase in the maximum runoff amounts of 77.78% and 46.87%, respectively. When land use was constant, it was found that the rainfall in 2010, which was the highest, also had the greatest impact on the runoff in all three areas.

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“…Moreover, the increase in hydrometeorological extremes, ranging from inundating floods to severe droughts and so-called compound risks, is consistently being reported [7][8][9]. In the Sahelian context, where rivers are the predominant water supply source while being primarily driven by rainfall, the impacts of climate change are alarming and therefore call for urgent assessment of appropriate management strategies [3,[10][11][12][13][14][15]. Burkina Faso, like many other Sahelian countries, is peculiarly exposed to the repercussions of climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unravelling the Impacts of Climate Variability on Surface Runoff in the Mouhoun River Catchment (West Africa)

Zouré,

Kiema,

Yonaba

et al. 2023

Land

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This study assesses the impacts of climate variability on surface runoff generation in the Mouhoun River Catchment (MRC) in Burkina Faso, in the West African Sahel. The study uses a combination of observed and reanalysis data over the period 1983–2018 to develop a SWAT model (KGE = 0.77/0.89 in calibration/validation) further used to reconstitute the complete time series for surface runoff. Results show that annual rainfall and surface runoff follow a significant upward trend (rainfall: 4.98 mm·year−1, p-value = 0.029; runoff: 0.45 m3·s−1·year−1, p-value = 0.013). Also, rainfall appears to be the dominant driver of surface runoff (Spearman’s ρ = 0.732, p-value < 0.0001), leading surface runoff at all timescales. Surface runoff is further modulated by potential evapotranspiration with quasi-decadal timescales fluctuations, although being less correlated to surface runoff (Spearman’s ρ = −0.148, p-value = 0.386). The study highlights the added value of the coupling of hydrological modeling and reanalysis datasets to analyze the rainfall–runoff relationship in data-scarce and poorly gauged environments and therefore raises pathways to improve knowledge and understanding of the impacts of climate variability in Sahelian hydrosystems.

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Future climate or land use? Attribution of changes in surface runoff in a typical Sahelian landscape

Abstract: Future climate or land use? Attribution of changes in surface runoff in a typical Sahelian landscape Climat futur ou états de surface ? Contributions aux changements dans l'écoulement de surface en contexte Sahélien

Cited by 13 publications

References 87 publications

Daily Simulation of the Rainfall–Runoff Relationship in the Sirba River Basin in West Africa: Insights from the HEC-HMS Model

Daily Simulation of the Rainfall–Runoff Relationship in the Sirba River Basin in West Africa: Insights from the HEC-HMS Model

Application of SWAT Model for Assessment of Surface Runoff in Flash Flood Areas

Unravelling the Impacts of Climate Variability on Surface Runoff in the Mouhoun River Catchment (West Africa)

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