Future Climate Change Scenarios for Florida

Kirtman, Ben P.; Misra, Vasubandhu; Anandhi, Aavudai; Palko, Diane; Infanti, Johnna M.

doi:10.17125/fci2017.ch18

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Such results could be attributed to the fact that rainfall depths were projected to increase in winter and decrease in summer (Figure 4a). Studies also projected wetting winter and drying summer in the different areas of Florida, including South Florida (Kirtman et al, 2017); the Florida peninsula (Misra et al, 2011; Obeysekera et al, 2015); the main Atlantic hurricane development region (10–20° N, 85–15° W; Lee et al, 2011); the Meso‐American region including Central America, Southern Mexico, and the Caribbean (Rauscher et al, 2011); and North America (Swain & Hayhoe, 2015).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of impacts of climate change on natural and managed wetland basins

Shin

Her

Khare

2023

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Low floodplain wetlands such as the Western Everglades in South Florida are vulnerable to extreme weather events, and their water quality and ecosystem functions vary greatly depending on changes in water levels and discharges. The future (i.e., the mid and late 21st century) climate is projected to result in increased frequency and magnitude of extreme events, which could negatively affect the hydroecological function of the wetlands. Wetland management practices have commonly been implemented to protect wetlands and their functions, but it is not clear whether the current management practices can still be effective in projected climate change scenarios. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the runoff and total phosphorus (TP) of natural (L28 Gap) and managed (L28) wetland watersheds in the Western Everglades. For the assessment, we employed future climate projections made using 29 general circulation models (GCMs) and the Watershed Assessment Model (WAM), a watershed loading model. The WAM was calibrated and validated for the baseline period (2000–2014), and the bias‐corrected climate projections were incorporated into the model to project the runoff discharge and TP loads for the near‐future (2030–2044) and far‐future (2070–2084) periods in two carbon emission scenarios. The modeling results show that the natural wetland watershed would be more vulnerable to projected climate change than the managed wetland watershed. The impact of projected climate change scenarios on daily runoff and TP loads was modulated by water control facilities and practices in the managed watershed, highlighting the significance of watershed management practices for improved water quality under projected climate change. This study demonstrates how the local natural and managed wetland watersheds distinctly respond to the global‐scale changes and emphasizes the role of water management practices in wetland basins, which are expected to help develop effective climate change adaptation plans for improved sustainability of wetland systems.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of impacts of climate change on natural and managed wetland basins

Shin

Her

Khare

2023

J American Water Resour Assoc

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“…It is important to note that the science of climate change is complicated, and it is likely that even remote influences of any observed climate change in the characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation can affect seasonal climatic variability over Florida [9]. Long-term projections of climate change in Florida are complicated due to its narrowness and ocean current influence on weather and climate [31,32]. Although it is not possible to predict with certainty the extent or timeline of sea level rise to Coastal Florida, it is well-recognized that the projected climate variabilities will pose substantial threats to Floridians and various natural systems and have direct consequences on the state's surface-and groundwater resources [33][34][35][36].…”

Section: Global Climate Projections Through Coupled Model Intercompar...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Climate Variability on Florida’s Major Water Resources

Haque

2023

Sustainability

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Emerging changes in water availability in the U.S. state of Florida have been recognized as a combined result of human perturbations, natural variability, and climate change. Florida is particularly susceptible to the impacts of the sea level rise due to its extensive coastline, low elevation, and lack of topographic relief to promote drainage. Owing to the porous nature of the state’s aquifer systems, saltwater intrusion into coastal areas is an evolving threat. Additionally, anthropogenic intervention has increased the contribution of nutrients and sediments to many lakes, reservoirs, and rivers, subsequently causing eutrophication and sedimentation problems. The state is facing the challenges of ocean acidification head-on since, in many regions, groundwater aquifers are connected to coastal waters, where water circulates from land to sea through the underlying porous limestone. Additionally, as Earth’s atmosphere warms up, extreme weather events are expected to change the environmental fate of contaminants in the aquatic environment, and this, in turn, may impact the type and distribution of contaminants in source waters. This review paper highlights five major emerging themes that are of significance for sustainable long-term management of Florida’s water resources: (i) influences of changing climate on groundwater aquifers; (ii) implications of climate change on eutrophication; (iii) impacts of changing climate on the Everglades; (iv) climate-change influence on runoff and sediment loads; and (v) influence of ocean acidification on coastal water. The findings of this review indicate that, in the future, the changing global climate will likely alter numerous environmental conditions in Florida, and the resulting changes may impact the natural properties of the state’s fresh and coastal waters. The findings are expected to mobilize knowledge in support of the changing climate to assist Floridians to adapt to its effects.

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