Future Climate Change Projections of the Kabul River Basin Using a Multi-model Ensemble of High-Resolution Statistically Downscaled Data

Bokhari, Syed Ahsan Ali; Ahmad, Bashir; Ali, Jahangir; Ahmad, Shakeel; Mushtaq, Haris; Rasul, Ghulam

doi:10.1007/s41748-018-0061-y

Cited by 50 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Previous climate change studies in Himalayan basins also suggest greater warming during winter [76,77]. Also, increases in winter and summer temperatures have similar trends to a previous finding over the same region under both scenarios [15]. Sanjay et al reported an increase in temperature over the Hindukush and Karakoram using regional climate models, namely by 5.4 • C during winter and of 4.9 • C during summer season by the end of 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario [78].…”

Section: Projected Future Temperature and Precipitationsupporting

confidence: 83%

“…Overall, precipitation is likely to decrease during winter (December-February), but to increase during the summer months ( Figure 5). Decreasing precipitation trends, particularly in wintertime (December-March), have been reported previously in the western Himalaya [12,15]. Buda et al projected decreases in winter and spring precipitation in the Indus River Basin by 7.9% and 2.71% under RCP 4.5 and decrease by 9.0% and 10.1% under RCP 8.5 towards the mid-and end of this century, respectively [14].…”

Section: Projected Future Temperature and Precipitationsupporting

confidence: 54%

“…The Kabul River basin has an area of about 87,615 km 2 and ranges in elevation from 400 m to 7603 m a.s.l. [15]. The basin climate is semi-arid and strongly continental.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Snow Distribution and River Flows in a Snow-Dominated Mountainous Watershed in the Western Hindukush–Himalaya, Afghanistan

Azizi

Asaoka

2020

Hydrology

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Projected snow cover and river flows are important for planning and managing water resources in snow-dominated basins of the Himalayas. To quantify the impacts of climate change in the data scarce Panjshir River basin of Afghanistan, this study simulated present and future snow cover area (SCA) distributions with the snow model (SM), and river flows with the snowmelt runoff model (SRM). The SRM used the degree-day factor and precipitation gradient optimized by the SM to simulate river flows. Temperature and precipitation data from eight kinds of general circulation models (GCMs) were used for bias correction. The SM and SRM were first calibrated and validated using 2009–2015 data, and then bias-corrected future climate data were input to the models to simulate future SCA and river flows. Under both the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, the annual average SCA and river flow were projected to decrease in the mid and late 21st century, although seasonal increases were simulated in some instances. Uncertainty ranges in projected SCA and river flow under RCP 8.5 were small in the mid 21st century and large in the late 21st century. Therefore, climate change is projected to alter high-altitude stream sources in the Hindukush mountains and reduce the amount of water reaching downstream areas.

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Section: Projected Future Temperature and Precipitationsupporting

confidence: 83%

Section: Projected Future Temperature and Precipitationsupporting

confidence: 54%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Snow Distribution and River Flows in a Snow-Dominated Mountainous Watershed in the Western Hindukush–Himalaya, Afghanistan

Azizi

Asaoka

2020

Hydrology

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“…The reliability of both methods in generating high-resolution climate datasets has been well-documented (Vandal et al, 2017), and consequently both methods have been applied in many international experiments. For example, the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX; Jones et al, 2011) used the dynamical downscaling method to produce climate simulation over different regions of the world (Giorgi et al, 2009), while the NASA Earth eXchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP; hereafter, NEX; Thrasher and Nemani, 2015) used statistical downscaling to generate climate projections over the whole globe (Bokhari et al, 2018). Both CORDEX and NEX datasets are freely available for regional climate change studies.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential impacts of specific global warming levels on extreme rainfall events over southern Africa in CORDEX and NEX‐GDDP ensembles

Abiodun

Mogebisa

Petja

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study examines the potential impacts of specific global warming levels (GWLs) on extreme rainfall events in southern Africa and over 12 major cities in the region. We analysed two regional climate simulation datasets: the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and the NASA Earth eXchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP, hereafter referred to as NEX), which used different methods (dynamical and statistical, respectively) in downscaling several global climate model (GCM) simulations from CMIP5. Twenty simulations were used from each dataset. The simulated rainfall indices for the reference period were compared with eight observation datasets. The projected changes in rainfall indices were examined

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“…Additionally, a significant increase in liquid precipitation (of the monsoon months) and stability in solid Figure 6. Projected climatology of changes in evapotranspiration (%) depicted by deployed GCMs under the AR5 based emission scenarios precipitation (of the winter months) in the future time slices have also been projected (Bokhari et al, 2018) that too attributes to the direction of changes in the streamflow magnitudes for the projection periods.…”

Section: Projected Ensemble Changes In Stream Flowmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prognosis of Hydro-Meteorological Attributes based on Simulation and Projection of Streamflow in a High-Altitude Basin using Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) Model

Burhan¹,

Usman²,

Bukhari³

et al. 2020

AQUADEMIA

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Subsistence of freshwater resources at high altitude regions has remained a paradox for stakeholder communities at both regional and global levels. To address such an issue, Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning Light (hereafter HBV) model was used to assess hydro-meteorological shifts triggered under climate change scenarios in snow dominant region of Chitral river basin. The model performed well both during calibration and validation periods with Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency values of 0.91 and 0.81 respectively on daily time scale in the basin. The HBV was thereafter engaged for the projection of streamflow in the Chitral river basin using projected data of four statistically downscaled climate models with four emission scenarios for the 21st century. Multi-model ensemble projections of precipitation revealed an increase of up to 165% in monsoon inception period and an increase in temperature of up to 9.5°C in winter to summer transitioning period for the 2070-2099 time slice under a high-end emission scenario. An increase of up to 122% in evapotranspiration was projected in the peak winter months for the 2070-2099 time slice under the high-end emission scenario. Attributed to the significant increases in the temperature and the liquid precipitation, it was projected that basin streamflow had potential to increase by up to 182 % in the monsoon inception period for the 2070-2099 time slice under the high-end emission scenario. It further indicated that precipitation might be falling as liquid rain most of the year, and snow will hardly accumulate in prognosticated future environements of the basin.

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Future Climate Change Projections of the Kabul River Basin Using a Multi-model Ensemble of High-Resolution Statistically Downscaled Data

Cited by 50 publications

References 46 publications

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Snow Distribution and River Flows in a Snow-Dominated Mountainous Watershed in the Western Hindukush–Himalaya, Afghanistan

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Snow Distribution and River Flows in a Snow-Dominated Mountainous Watershed in the Western Hindukush–Himalaya, Afghanistan

Potential impacts of specific global warming levels on extreme rainfall events over southern Africa in CORDEX and NEX‐GDDP ensembles

Prognosis of Hydro-Meteorological Attributes based on Simulation and Projection of Streamflow in a High-Altitude Basin using Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) Model

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