Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Exposure and Impacts in Southeast Asia From CMIP6 Pseudo‐Global Warming Simulations

Tran, Thao Linh; Ritchie, Elizabeth A.; Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Bui, Hai; Luong, Thang M.

doi:10.1029/2022ef003118

Cited by 13 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 110 publications

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“…The response of TCs to economic outcomes interacts with climate and TC wind variations, showing detrimental and beneficial effects respectively. Our findings add new dimensions to the vulnerability of TCs from the previous work (Geiger et al., 2021; Mendelsohn et al., 2012; Peduzzi et al., 2012; Wen et al., 2018) and have important implications for northern and inland regions of China, which are expected to be continuously exposed to TCs under future climate change (Bloemendaal et al., 2022; J. Chen et al., 2021; Y. Chen et al., 2021; Tran et al., 2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Economic Impacts of Tropical Cyclone‐Induced Multiple Hazards in China

Hu,

Wen,

Shao

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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Tropical cyclones (TCs) are known to bring heavy rainfall, strong winds and severe storm surges simultaneously, resulting in tremendous damage beyond the effects of a single hazard. However, the compound impacts of TC multi‐hazards remain unexplored in macroeconomic assessments. Here, we provide empirical evidence on the multi‐hazard economic losses of TC for the first time. We used a national panel of provincial economic output in China over 2000–2020. Our results show that the total macroeconomic impact of the severest TC multi‐hazards can represent up to 14 times the value of merely TC winds. Specifically, the vast majority (over 80%) of the combined TC impacts is caused by precipitation, with wider and greater economic impacts than TC winds and storm surges. Furthermore, high‐latitude and interior regions of China are more vulnerable to TCs due to the interactions with temperature variability and TC wind intensity variability. High‐income areas and secondary industries respond markedly to all TC hazards, and the economic impact of TC precipitation is significant over all sectors. Our findings provide new implications for the socio‐economic impact mechanisms of multiple hazards of TCs and valuable insights into the design of climate policy for compound hazard risks.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Economic Impacts of Tropical Cyclone‐Induced Multiple Hazards in China

Hu,

Wen,

Shao

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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“…In another approach, output from pseudo-global warming (PGW) sensitivity simulations has been added to reanalysis data and used as the initial condition for regional models in TC case studies by Lynn et al (2009), Lackmann (2015, Nakamura et al (2016), Kanada et al (2017), Parker et al (2018), Patricola and Wehner (2018), Mittal et al (2019), andReddy et al (2021), which eliminated some of the unrealistic features of the GCM. Gutmann et al (2018) andTran et al (2022) increased the number of TCs simulated with PGW over a study period, which improved the precision of TC activity predictions in future climate scenarios. However, the assumptions and uncertainties of PGW research are noteworthy: 1) there is significant variability depending on the selection of the projection model and the study period, and 2) the impacts of longer-than-decadal variability (most PGW studies operate in a 10-yr time frame) on TC activity are not eliminated from the simulations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Intense Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific under Global Warming: A Dynamical Downscaling Approach

Chih

Huang

et al. 2023

Preprint

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This study aims to assess the impact of global warming on intense TCs over the western North Pacific (WNP) through a dynamical downscaling approach. 379 and 179 TCs reaching Category 1 in the High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) are downscaled for use in the Weather Research and Forecasting model at 5-km horizontal resolution in the current climate (1979-2015) and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) future climate (2074-2100) scenarios, respectively. Inclusion of the downscaling simulations helps better reproduce the probability distribution of the TC lifetime maximum intensity (LMI). In the warmer climate, the top 30 and top 5 % WNP TCs in LMI are projected to be stronger. Such an increase in intensity is statistically significant, and can be primarily explained by enhanced intensification rate (IR). Meanwhile, TCs among the top 5% in LMI can reach higher intensities which cannot be attained in the current climate. After downscaling, the probability of WNP TCs reaching Category 4-5 increases by 6.5 % in the late 21th century, which is 1.7 % higher as compared to the increase projected exclusively by HiRAM. Moreover, for TCs among the top 5 % in LMI, a 233-km and 300-km westward shift of LMI locations is identified in the late 21st century, for simulations with and without applying the downscaling approach, respectively. Both results suggest that very intense TCs would pose a higher threat to the WNP lands under global warming, as they become substantially stronger, and with their LMI locations migrating toward the coast.

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“…In another approach, output from pseudo-global warming (PGW) sensitivity simulations was added to the reanalysis data and used as the initial condition for regional models in TC case studies by Lynn et al (2009), Lackmann (2015), Nakamura et al (2016), Kanada et al (2017), Parker et al (2018), Patricola and Wehner (2018), Mittal et al (2019), andReddy et al (2021), which eliminated some of the unrealistic features of the GCM. Gutmann et al (2018) and Tran et al (2022) increased the number of TCs simulated with PGW over a study period, which improved the precision of TC activity predictions in future climate scenarios. However, the assumptions and uncertainties of PGW research are noteworthy: (a) there is significant variability depending on the selection of the projection model and the study period, and (b) the impacts of longer-than-decadal variability (most PGW studies operate in a 10-year time frame) on TC activity are not eliminated from the simulations.…”

mentioning

confidence: 93%

“…(2018) and Tran et al. (2022) increased the number of TCs simulated with PGW over a study period, which improved the precision of TC activity predictions in future climate scenarios. However, the assumptions and uncertainties of PGW research are noteworthy: (a) there is significant variability depending on the selection of the projection model and the study period, and (b) the impacts of longer‐than‐decadal variability (most PGW studies operate in a 10‐year time frame) on TC activity are not eliminated from the simulations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intense Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Under Global Warming: A Dynamical Downscaling Approach

Chih,

Wu,

Huang

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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This study aims to assess the global warming's impact on intense tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) through dynamical downscaling. 379 and 179 TCs reaching Category 1 in the High‐Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) are downscaled for use in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 5‐km horizontal resolution in the current climate (1979–2015) and for use in the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) in the future climate (2074–2100) scenarios, respectively. Inclusion of the downscaling simulations by WRF helps better reproduce the probability distribution of the TC's lifetime maximum intensity (LMI). In the warmer climate, the LMI of very intense TCs in WNP are projected to be stronger. Such an increase in intensity is statistically significant, and can be primarily explained by enhanced intensification rate. Meanwhile, TCs among the top 5% in LMI can reach higher intensities which cannot be attained in the current climate. After downscaling, the probability of WNP TCs reaching Category 4–5 increases by 6.5 percentage points in the late 21st century. This increase is 1.7 percentage points higher than the increase projected exclusively by HiRAM. Moreover, for TCs among the top 5% in LMI, a 233‐km and 300‐km westward shift of LMI locations is identified in the late 21st century for simulations with and without the downscaling approach, respectively. Both results suggest that very intense TCs would pose a higher threat to the WNP lands under global warming, as they become substantially stronger, and as their LMI locations migrate toward the coast.

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Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Exposure and Impacts in Southeast Asia From CMIP6 Pseudo‐Global Warming Simulations

Abstract: Tropical cyclones are projected to be more intense, smaller in size, and to move faster • Landfalling locations shift poleward and further west by the end of the 21 st century.• Wind and rain impacts increase in the northern Southeast Asia, extend further inland.

Cited by 13 publications

References 110 publications

Economic Impacts of Tropical Cyclone‐Induced Multiple Hazards in China

Economic Impacts of Tropical Cyclone‐Induced Multiple Hazards in China

Intense Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific under Global Warming: A Dynamical Downscaling Approach

Intense Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Under Global Warming: A Dynamical Downscaling Approach

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