Future Changes in the Global Frequency of Tropical Cyclone Seeds

Sugi, Masato; Yamada, Yohei; Yoshida, Kohei; Mizuta, Ryo; Nakano, Masuo; Kodama, Chihiro; Satoh, Masaki

doi:10.2151/sola.2020-012

“…Contrary to Vecchi et al (2019), they showed a clear reduction in TC seed frequency, which contributes to a decrease in the relatively weak TC frequency. Although changes in TC and TC seed frequencies showed opposite signs between Vecchi et al (2019) and Sugi et al (2020), both studies indicated that changes in TC seed frequency under warmer climates possibly in uence changes in TC frequency. This discrepancy may be a result of the differing models, de nitions of TC seeds and/or experimental designs between the two studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations

Yamada

¹

,

Kodama

²

,

Satoh

³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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0

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Previous projections of the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis due to global warming, even in terms of sign of the change, depends on the chosen model simulation. Here, we systematically examine projected changes in tropical cyclones using six global atmospheric models with medium-to-high horizontal resolutions included in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project. Changes in the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis could be broken down into the contributions from (i) the tropical cyclone seed, a depression having a closed contour of sea level pressure with a warm core and (ii) the survival rate, the ratio of the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis to that of tropical cyclone seeds. The multi-model ensemble mean indicates that tropical cyclone genesis frequencies are significantly decreased during the period 1990–2049, which is attributable to changes in tropical cyclone seeds. Analysis of the individual models shows that although most models project a more or less decreasing trend in tropical cyclone genesis frequencies and seeds, the survival rate also contributes to the result in some models. The present study indicates the usefulness of decomposition into the frequency of the tropical cyclone seeds and the survival rate to understand the cause of uncertainty in projected frequencies of tropical cyclone genesis.

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“…In the present study, we used the six models included in CMIP6 HighResMIP: Centre National de Kodama et al, 2020). We abbreviated them by combining the model name and horizontal grid interval.…”

Section: Methods / Experimental Models and Experimental Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, some studies have noted the response of TC seeds (incipient vortices of TCs) to global warming and its relation to TC genesis frequency (Lee et al, 2020;Sugi et al, 2020;Vecchi et al, 2019). Vecchi et al (2019) investigated the reasons for the increase in TC genesis under the warmer climate conditions projected by Bhatia et al (2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations

Yamada

¹

,

Kodama

²

,

Satoh

³

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

0

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Previous projections of the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis due to global warming, even in terms of sign of the change, depends on the chosen model simulation. Here, we systematically examine projected changes in tropical cyclones using six global atmospheric models with medium-to-high horizontal resolutions included in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project. Changes in the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis could be broken down into the contributions from (i) the tropical cyclone seed, a depression having a closed contour of sea level pressure with a warm core and (ii) the survival rate, the ratio of the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis to that of tropical cyclone seeds. The multi-model ensemble mean indicates that tropical cyclone genesis frequencies are significantly decreased during the period 1990–2049, which is attributable to changes in tropical cyclone seeds. Analysis of the individual models shows that although most models project a more or less decreasing trend in tropical cyclone genesis frequencies and seeds, the survival rate also contributes to the result in some models. This study indicates the usefulness of decomposition into the frequency of the tropical cyclone seeds and the survival rate to understand the cause of uncertainty in projected frequencies of tropical cyclone genesis.

show abstract

“…Contrary to Vecchi et al (2019), they showed a clear reduction in TC seed frequency, which contributes to a decrease in the relatively weak TC frequency. Although changes in TC and TC seed frequencies showed opposite signs between Vecchi et al (2019) and Sugi et al (2020), both studies indicated that changes in TC seed frequency under warmer climates possibly in uence changes in TC frequency. This discrepancy may be a result of the differing models, de nitions of TC seeds and/or experimental designs between the two studies.…”

mentioning

confidence: 87%

Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations

Yamada

¹

,

Kodama

²

,

Satoh

³

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Previous projections of the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis due to global warming, even in terms of sign of the change, depends on the chosen model simulation. Here, we systematically examine projected changes in tropical cyclones using six global atmospheric models with medium-to-high horizontal resolutions included in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project. Changes in the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis could be broken down into the contributions from (i) the tropical cyclone seed, a depression having a closed contour of sea level pressure with a warm core and (ii) the survival rate, the ratio of the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis to that of tropical cyclone seeds. The multi-model ensemble mean indicates that tropical cyclone genesis frequencies are significantly decreased during the period 1990–2049, which is attributable to changes in tropical cyclone seeds. Analysis of the individual models shows that although most models project a more or less decreasing trend in tropical cyclone genesis frequencies and seeds, the survival rate also contributes to the result in some models. The present study indicates the usefulness of decomposition into the frequency of the tropical cyclone seeds and the survival rate to understand the cause of uncertainty in projected frequencies of tropical cyclone genesis.

show abstract

Future Changes in the Global Frequency of Tropical Cyclone Seeds

Cited by 40 publications

References 22 publications

Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations

Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations

Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations

Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations

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