Future Changes in Summertime East Asian Monthly Precipitation in CMIP5 and Their Dependence on Present-Day Model Climatology

Ose, Tomoaki

doi:10.2151/jmsj.2019-055

Cited by 4 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…This fact suggests that dslpMEAN possesses the characteristics and cause-result relationship included in dslpEOF1-3. Ose (2019b) studied the differences in the projec- tions between the CMIP5 model ensemble and the 10 CMIP5 models that best simulate the present-day climatology over East Asia. The future changes in the 10 CMIP5 model mean sea-level pressure (dslpMEAN_ 10) are resolved into dslpEOF1-5.…”

Section: Surface Pressure Pattern and Its Resolutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Future changes in the upper atmospheric circulations and winds may indicate a signal of the teleconnection or wave propagation from the tropical sources caused by vertical velocity changes. In the global warming process, the troposphere is widely recognized to be stabilized vertically with respect to dry static energy; hence, the vertical velocity (i.e., vertical circulation) is weakened (Vecchi and Soden 2007) in proportion to its present-day climatology (Ose 2019b). Therefore, the coincident distribution of the present-day vertical velocity and the future suppressed vertical motion indicates a distinguished forcing under global warming, which will create weakened vertical circulation changes.…”

Section: Vertical Velocity and 200 Hpa Zonal Windmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A future anomaly similar to the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern (Kosaka and Nakamura 2011), which is observed as a leading variability in summertime East Asia, is specifically analyzed as the fourth mode dslpEOF4 probably because of its latitudinally small-scale structure. Ose (2019b) showed that the 10 CMIP5 (CMIP5_ 10) models more clearly simulated the future changes toward the downward northeasterly wind at 700 hPa and the possibility of the future decreases in the monthly regional precipitation over East Asia compared to the CMIP5 model ensemble. The CMIP5_10 models are the CMIP5 models that best simulate the present-day climatology with respect to both precipitation and 500 hPa westerly over East Asia.…”

Section: Future Asia Pacific Summer Monsoon Mean and Modesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to Ose (2019b), the future decrease in monthly precipitation is possible in East Asia regionally against the "wet-get-wetter" effect because of the strong northeasterly wind and the associated adiabatic downward motion anomalies in the case of the 10 CMIP5-model ensemble chosen to accurately simulate the present-day East Asian climatology of precipitation and westerly jet. They also suggested that the model dependence of the abovementioned causal circulation change was related to that of the present-day tropical climatology of precipitation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Resolution of Summertime East Asian Pressure Pattern and Southerly Monsoon Wind in CMIP5 Multi-model Future Projections

Ose¹,

Takaya²,

Maeda³

et al. 2020

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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The southerly surface wind index over the summertime East Asia (SWI) is strengthened in the future in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). However, the differences among the models are much larger than the ensemble average. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to the future changes in the East Asian surface pressure pattern responsible for the SWI. The ensemble average and five EOF modes for the pressure patterns and the associated precipitation changes are identified, and their possible sources are examined.The CMIP5 ensemble mean change in the summertime Asia Pacific surface pressure pattern possesses the characteristics of the first to third modes. The first and second mode components contribute to the positive SWI in the future, but are cancelled mostly by the third mode component. The first mode is high surface pressure anomalies over low Asia Pacific sea surface temperature. The second mode is related to warm temperature anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere continents and the increased equatorial Pacific precipitation. The large model dependence of the SWI is created by the third mode, which represents the weak Pacific High in northern East Asia and is characterized with suppressed vertical motions over the northern Indian and Pacific oceans. The fourth mode is the Okhotsk High. The fifth mode represents the east-west contrast of the southern East Asian surface pressure anomalies and is associated with the Northern Hemisphere ocean temperatures. The fourth and fifth modes feature the mean projection using the 10 models reproducing an accurate present-day summertime East Asian climatology.The mode-related suppressed vertical motions in global warming reflect the present-day vertical motion (i.e., precipitation) climatology; hence, the future increase/decrease in the SWI tends to be projected by models simulating the relatively small/large Asia Pacific monsoon precipitation over the tropical oceans, except near the mountains, in the present-day model climatology.

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Section: Surface Pressure Pattern and Its Resolutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Vertical Velocity and 200 Hpa Zonal Windmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Future Asia Pacific Summer Monsoon Mean and Modesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Resolution of Summertime East Asian Pressure Pattern and Southerly Monsoon Wind in CMIP5 Multi-model Future Projections

Ose¹,

Takaya²,

Maeda³

et al. 2020

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

Self Cite

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“…According to CMIP multi-model analysis, future summer precipitation in East Asia will generally increase, mainly due to an increase in atmospheric moisture (Endo and Kitoh, 2014). However, the spatial pattern in precipitation change is significantly influenced by the atmospheric circulation in summer (He and Zhou, 2015;Horinouchi et al, 2019;Ose, 2019) and in winter (Kimoto, 2005;Ogata et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal characteristics of future climate change over Japan and the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies in global model experiments

Ito

Ose

Endo

et al. 2020

Hydrological Research Letters

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Information on future climate change considering regional characteristics is necessary to establish adaptation strategies for global warming. We investigated the seasonal characteristics of future climate projections over Japan and surroundings (JPN) in the late 21st century, focusing especially on the source of uncertainty, based on two ensembles of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM) global warming simulations. The ensemble mean surface air temperature increase over JPN is lower than that over the East Asian land region (EAS), reflecting the continent-ocean contrast, whereas quantitative changes in future precipitation depend on the ensembles. The CMIP5 mean atmospheric circulation around JPN weakens in winter and summer, while the future seasonal march tends to be delayed in the northern part of JPN during spring and autumn. Significant CMIP5 inter-model correlations are detected between the JPN climate projections and future circulation anomalies − e.g. the ensemble members simulating the westerly/ southeasterly wind anomaly tend to project hotter/wetter future summers. The high-resolution MRI-AGCM projection is consistent with the CMIP5 inter-model correlations when the future change in typhoon-associated precipitation is removed, indicating typhoon simulations can substantially influence future projections.

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Different Future Changes between Early and Late Summer Monsoon Precipitation in East Asia

Endo¹,

Mizuta²,

Ose³

2021

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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Future changes in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation and the associated atmospheric circulation changes are investigated based on ensemble projections with the 60-km mesh Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM60). The projections at the end of the twenty-first century under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario indicate anoverall increase in EASM precipitation, but with large sub-seasonal and regional variations. In June, the Meiyu-Baiu rainband is projected to strengthen, with its eastern part (i.e., the Baiu rainband) shifted southward relative to its present-day position. This result is robust within the ensemble simulations. In July and August, the simulations consistently project a significant increase in precipitation over the northern East Asian continent and neighboring seas; however, there is a lack of consensus on the projection of the Meiyu-Baiu rainband in July. A small change in precipitation over the Pacific is another feature in August.Sensitivity experiments with the MRI-AGCM60 reveal that the precipitation changes in early summer are dominated by the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) warming (i.e., uniform warming and the tropical pattern change), which induce an increase in atmospheric moisture and a strengthening and southward shift of the upper-level East Asian westerly jet (EAJ), especially over the Pacific. On the other hand, the influence of land warming and successive large SST warming in the extratropics is evident in the precipitation changes in late summer. These late summer effects oppose and exceed the early summer effects through changes in the EAJ and low-level monsoon winds. These results suggest that the competition between the opposing factors makes the signal of the Meiyu-Baiu rainband response smaller in July than in June, and thus there tends to be a larger spread among simulations regarding the future tendency of the rainband in July.

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Future Changes in Summertime East Asian Monthly Precipitation in CMIP5 and Their Dependence on Present-Day Model Climatology

Cited by 4 publications

References 22 publications

Resolution of Summertime East Asian Pressure Pattern and Southerly Monsoon Wind in CMIP5 Multi-model Future Projections

Resolution of Summertime East Asian Pressure Pattern and Southerly Monsoon Wind in CMIP5 Multi-model Future Projections

Seasonal characteristics of future climate change over Japan and the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies in global model experiments

Different Future Changes between Early and Late Summer Monsoon Precipitation in East Asia

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