Future Changes in Seasonality of the North Pacific and North Atlantic Subtropical Highs

Song, Fengfei; Leung, L. Ruby; Lu, Jian; Dong, Lu

doi:10.1029/2018gl079940

Cited by 49 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Xie et al 2010, Mizuta et al 2014). During boreal summer, the North Pacific High (NPH) weakens (negative ΔSLP) in response to climate warming (figure 1(e); table 1), consistent with CMIP5 ensemble mean response reported in previous studies (He et al 2017, Song et al 2018. In this model, the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) around the Philippines is enhanced (figure 1(e); table 1), although model responses are divergent among CMIP5 models (He and Zhou 2015).…”

Section: Ar Response To Climate Warmingsupporting

confidence: 83%

Ocean warming pattern effects on future changes in East Asian atmospheric rivers

Kamae

Mei

Xie

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intense water vapor transports associated with extra-tropical cyclones, frequently bring heavy rainfalls over mid-latitudes. Over East Asia, landfalling ARs result in major socio-economic impacts including widespread floods and landslides; for example, western Japan heavy rainfall in July 2018 killed more than 200 people. Using results of high-resolution atmospheric model ensemble simulations, we examine projected future change in summertime AR frequency over East Asia. Different sea surface temperature (SST) warming patterns derived from six atmosphereocean coupled model simulations were assumed to represent uncertainty in future SST projections. The rate of increase in the frequency of landfalling ARs over summertime East Asia is on average 0.9% K -1 and is dependent on SST warming patterns. Stronger warming over the North Indian Ocean and South China Sea or weaker warming over the tropical central Pacific produce more frequent landfalling ARs over East Asia. These patterns are similar to the co-variability of SST, atmospheric circulation, and ARs over the western North Pacific found on the interannual time scale. The results of this study suggest that the natural disaster risk related to landfalling ARs should increase over East Asia under global warming and SSTs over the Indo-Pacific region holds the key for a quantitative projection.

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Section: Ar Response To Climate Warmingsupporting

confidence: 83%

Ocean warming pattern effects on future changes in East Asian atmospheric rivers

Kamae

Mei

Xie

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…In contrast to the RC edge, the subtropical ridge (see Figures c, d, g, h, S3c, S3d, S3g, and S3h) shifts poleward almost uniformly over the SH year round in a warming climate, even at longitudes where no RC is defined (e.g., the South Central Pacific during JJA; Song et al, ); in some cases, the SLP signal may reflect changes in the eddy‐driven jet rather than the RC (Pena‐Ortiz et al, ). Our results suggest that caution should be exercised when interpreting the zonal mean SH climate change response; traditionally, the strong HC widening signal over the SH is ascribed in part to the reduced land‐sea contrast over the SH and a more zonally symmetric circulation.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Widening of Tropical Overturning: Forced Change, Natural Variability, and Recent Trends

et al. 2019

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The width of the tropical Hadley circulation (HC) has garnered intense interest in recent decades, owing to the emerging evidence for its expansion in observations and models and to the anticipated impacts on surface climate in its descending branches. To better clarify the causes and impacts of tropical widening, this work generalizes the zonal mean HC to the regional level by defining meridional overturning cells (RC) using the horizontally divergent wind. The edges of the RC are more closely connected to surface hydroclimate than more traditional metrics of regional tropical width (such as the sea level pressure ridge) or even than the zonal mean HC. Simulations reveal a robust weakening of the RC in response to greenhouse gas increases, along with a widening of the RC in some regions. For example, simulated widening of the zonal mean HC in the Southern Hemisphere appears to arise in large part from regional overturning anomalies over the Eastern Pacific, where there is no clear RC. Unforced interannual variability in the position of the zonal mean HC edge is associated with a more general regional widening. These distinct regional signatures suggest that the RCs may be well suited for the attribution of observed circulation trends. The spatial pattern of regional meridional overturning trends in reanalyses corresponds more closely to the pattern associated with unforced interannual variability than to the pattern associated with CO2 forcing, suggesting a large contribution of natural variability to the recent observed tropical widening trends.

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“…In addition, increased atmospheric moisture in this pattern leads to more extreme precipitation over the central US in a warmer climate. Song et al (2018) found that the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) and North Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH) strengthen more in spring than summer under future warming. Associated with the enhancement of the Great Plain low level jet and northward shift of the NASH in spring, precipitation is enhanced over the northern Great Plains and northeastern US.…”

Section: Projections Of Future Lsmp Behavior Associated With Precipitmentioning

confidence: 99%

North American extreme precipitation events and related large-scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

et al. 2019

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This paper surveys the current state of knowledge regarding large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than 1 week) extreme precipitation events over North America. In contrast to teleconnections, which are typically defined based on the characteristic spatial variations of a meteorological field or on the remote circulation response to a known forcing, LSMPs are defined relative to the occurrence of a specific phenomenon-here, extreme precipitationand with an emphasis on the synoptic scales that have a primary influence in individual events, have medium-range weather predictability, and are well-resolved in both weather and climate models. For the LSMP relationship with extreme precipitation, we consider the previous literature with respect to definitions and data, dynamical mechanisms, model representation, and climate change trends. There is considerable uncertainty in identifying extremes based on existing observational precipitation data and some limitations in analyzing the associated LSMPs in reanalysis data. Many different definitions of "extreme" are in use, making it difficult to directly compare different studies. Dynamically, several types of meteorological systems-extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and mesohighs-and several mechanisms-fronts, atmospheric rivers, and orographic ascent-have been shown to be important aspects of extreme precipitation LSMPs. The extreme precipitation is often realized through mesoscale processes organized, enhanced, or triggered by the LSMP. Understanding of model representation, trends, and projections for LSMPs is at an early stage, although some promising analysis techniques have been identified and the LSMP perspective is useful for evaluating the model dynamics associated with extremes.

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Future Changes in Seasonality of the North Pacific and North Atlantic Subtropical Highs

Cited by 49 publications

References 33 publications

Ocean warming pattern effects on future changes in East Asian atmospheric rivers

Ocean warming pattern effects on future changes in East Asian atmospheric rivers

Regional Widening of Tropical Overturning: Forced Change, Natural Variability, and Recent Trends

North American extreme precipitation events and related large-scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

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