Future changes in peak river flows across northern Eurasia as inferred from an ensemble of regional climate projections under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario

Shkolnik, I. M.; Павлова, Т. В.; Efimov, S.; Zhuravlev, Sergey

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3600-6

Cited by 55 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…These results show that continued increasing annual discharge into the HBC is expected, as in recent observations (Déry et al, ). Discharge is likewise projected to increase across other northern regions (Canadian Arctic, Québec, Eurasia, and Scandinavia) through the 21st century (Guay et al, ; Koirala et al, ; Shkolnik et al, ). Interannual and interdecadal variability in discharge into the HBC is largely explained by the Arctic Oscillation (AO; Déry & Wood, ), which brings relatively cool and dry air during its positive phase and relatively warm and moist air during its negative phase.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent climate change has altered a suite of hydrometeorological and ecological variables across northern regions: precipitation, river discharge, snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, freshwater and saltwater ice cover, and biota (Arheimer & Lindström, 2015;DeBeer et al, 2016;Haine et al, 2015;Rawlins et al, 2010). With respect to river discharge, several studies project increased flows across northern regions compared to historical means (e.g., Koirala et al, 2014;Shkolnik et al, 2017), and these increases are more pronounced than the global trend (Alkama et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming on Pan‐Arctic River Discharge Into the Hudson Bay Complex Through 2070

MacDonald

Stadnyk

Déry

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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Discharge projections into the Hudson Bay Complex to 2070 are investigated for global mean temperature warming levels of 1.5 and 2.0 °C. Median precipitation increases from 1986–2005, ranging from 2% during summer to 19% during winter, are projected to increase discharge in all seasons except summer. The rise in discharge is greatest furthest north, into Foxe Basin, Ungava Bay, and Hudson Strait, exceeding 10% above historical annual means. A 2.0 °C warming results in higher discharge than 1.5 °C warming owing to greater precipitation (e.g., 6.5% greater spring discharge increase); however, summer discharge for 2.0 °C warming is lower due to enhanced evaporation and lower precipitation increase from historical (4.0% lower summer discharge increase). Extreme daily high flows are projected to be greater than historical, more so for 2.0 °C warming than 1.5 °C warming, and this is greatest in the eastern and northern regions. These projections suggest continued increasing river discharge into pan‐Arctic coastal oceans.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming on Pan‐Arctic River Discharge Into the Hudson Bay Complex Through 2070

MacDonald

Stadnyk

Déry

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…The Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO) RCM used here encompasses the entire territory of Russia [24]. The input information (atmospheric pressure, temperature, moisture, and momentum) in the RCM is provided every 6 h at the domain lateral boundaries by the MGO atmospheric global model [25] of a lower resolution (∼200 km).…”

Section: Experimental Setup and Crop Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future changes in spring wheat yield in the European Russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high-resolution climate projections

Pavlova

Shkolnik

Pikaleva

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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An assessment is carried out of future changes in the agroclimatic conditions and crop productivity of spring wheat across the major grain-growing regions of European Russia. Calculations are conducted using a crop model driven by high-resolution, multiple realization regional climate change simulations under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. It has been shown that this scenario can lead to a future decrease in the yield of spring wheat by 9.1±2.3% (2030-2039), 10.3±3.2% (2050-2059), and 18.9±2.8% (2090-2099) as compared with the yield at the end of XX century. In the southeastern part of the region, where there are major spring wheat areas, the projected yield change is expected to be -6.7±3.0% by 2050-2059 and −21.5±3.1% by 2090-2099. Fertile lands in the Central Black-Earth region (southwest of Moscow) will suffer even more due to a significant increase in the aridity and decrease of the growing season. There the projected drop in yield is simulated to be 15.8±5.1% by 2050-2059 and 32.9±3.4% by 2090-2099. However, the major losses in total production (gross yield) are expected to occur in the Privolzhsky Federal District where the spring wheat areas amount to 87% of the total cultivated area in the region.

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“…A considerable threat to society from the observed global climate change comes from the changes in precipitation characteristics. In Northern Eurasia (NE), increasing precipitation intensities and the occurrence of heavy rain events (Semenov and Bengtsson 2002, Groisman et al 2005, Mokhov et al 2005, Ye et al 2015, Donat et al 2016, Zolina and Bulygina 2016, and changes in the duration of wet and dry spells (Khon et al 2007, Zolina et al 2010, Ye 2018, affect national economies by modulating streamflow and water availability (Mokhov et al 2003, Milly et al 2005, Shkolnik et al 2018 and causing local devastating flashfloods (Meredith et al 2015b) or large-scale deluges (Mokhov 2014, Mokhov andSemenov 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia over the last five decades

Chernokulsky

Kozlov

Zolina

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Long-term changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia (NE) over the last five decades are estimated. Different types of precipitation are separated according to their genesis using routine meteorological observations of precipitation, weather conditions, and morphological cloud types for the period 1966-2016. From an initial 538 stations, the main analysis is performed for 326 stations that have no gaps and meet criteria regarding the artificial discontinuity absence in the data. A moderate increase in total precipitation over the analyzed period is accompanied by a relatively strong growth of convective precipitation and a concurrent decrease in stratiform precipitation. Convective and stratiform precipitation totals, precipitation intensity and heavy precipitation sums depict major changes in summer, while the relative contribution of the two precipitation types to the total precipitation (including the contribution of heavy rain events) show the strongest trends in transition seasons. The contribution of heavy convective showers to the total precipitation increases with the statistically significant trend of 1%-2% per decade in vast NE regions, reaching 5% per decade at a number of stations. The largest increase is found over the southern Far East region, mostly because of positive changes in convective precipitation intensity with a linear trend of more than 1 mm/day/ decade, implying a 13.8% increase per 1°C warming. In general, stratiform precipitation decreases over the majority of NE regions in all seasons except for winter. This decrease happens at slower rates in comparison to the convective precipitation changes. The overall changes in the character of precipitation over the majority of NE regions are characterized by a redistribution of precipitation types toward more heavy showers.

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Future changes in peak river flows across northern Eurasia as inferred from an ensemble of regional climate projections under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario

Cited by 55 publications

References 44 publications

Impacts of 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming on Pan‐Arctic River Discharge Into the Hudson Bay Complex Through 2070

Impacts of 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming on Pan‐Arctic River Discharge Into the Hudson Bay Complex Through 2070

Future changes in spring wheat yield in the European Russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high-resolution climate projections

Observed changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia over the last five decades

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