Future Changes in Indicators of Climate Hazard and Resource in the UK

Abstract

The UK Climate Resilience Programme (UKCR) funded several projects that have calculated how climate change is likely to affect climate hazards and resources across the UK, using the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). Under a high emissions scenario, heatwaves and high temperature extremes become more frequent across the UK, leading to an increase in human mortality, animal heat stress, potato blight, wildfire danger and damage to road and rail infrastructure. Cold weather extremes continue to occur but become less frequent. Also under high emissions, the growing season starts earlier, lasts longer and is warmer; this is particularly beneficial for grassland and viticulture, but the chance of summer drought and dry soils increases. The precise effects vary across different agricultural systems. With respect to rainfall, high hourly and daily totals become more frequent, leading to a greater chance of flash flooding. River floods become more frequent in the north and west of the UK, but low river flows and droughts also become more frequent, and water quality in upland water sources declines. The actual size of the change in risk is uncertain, primarily due to uncertainty in exactly how rainfall will change. There are large differences in change in risk across the UK. However, the actual size of the change in risk is uncertain, primarily due to uncertainty in exactly how rainfall will change.