Future changes in annual precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia under global warming of 2°C

Tangang, Fredolin; Supari, Supari; Chung, Jing Xiang; Cruz, Faye; Salimun, Ester; Ngai, Sheau Tieh; Juneng, Liew; Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn; Ngo‐Duc, Thanh; Phan-Van, Tan; Narisma, Gemma; Singhruck, Patama; Gunawan, Dodo; Aldrian, Edvin; Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena; Nikulin, Grigory; Yang, Hongwei; Remedio, Armelle Reca; Sein, Dmitry; Hein-Griggs, David

doi:10.30852/sb.2018.436

Cited by 70 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Restricting warming to 1.5°C would significantly reduce the regional and local climate risks, including to water resources, food security and agricultural production in developing countries (Huang et al 2017, Dosio andFischer 2018). More recently, we have noticed that the projected changes in annual precipitation amount and extremes at 2°C GWL are primarily investigated over SEA (Tangang et al 2018). These results encourage us to evaluate the projected changes in precipitation extremes at different GWLs.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 84%

Risks of precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia: does 1.5 °C or 2 °C global warming make a difference?

Zhu

Peng

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Guided by the target of the Paris Agreement of 2015, it is fundamental to identify regional climate responses to global warming of different magnitudes for Southeast Asia (SEA), a tropical region where human society is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Projected changes in indices characterizing precipitation extremes of the 1.5°C and 2°C global warming levels (GWLs) exceeding pre-industrial conditions are analyzed, comparing the reference period with an ensemble of CORDEX simulations. The results show that projected changes in precipitation extreme indices are significantly amplified over the Indochina Peninsula and the Maritime Continent at both GWLs. The increases of precipitation extremes are essentially affected by enhanced convective precipitation. The number of wet and extremely wet days is increasing more abruptly than both the total and daily average precipitation of all wet days, emphasizing the critical risks linked with extreme precipitation. Additionally, significant changes can also be observed between the GWLs of 1.5°C and 2°C, especially over the Maritime Continent, suggesting the high sensitivity of precipitation extremes to the additional 0.5°C GWL increase. The present study reveals the potential influence of both 1.5°C and 2°C GWLs on regional precipitation over SEA, highlights the importance of restricting mean global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial conditions and provides essential information on manageable climate adaptation and mitigation strategies for the developing countries in SEA.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 84%

Risks of precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia: does 1.5 °C or 2 °C global warming make a difference?

Zhu

Peng

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Within CORDEX-CORE [12], new high resolution simulations of 0.22°(about 25 km) were set up over most domains, except for Southeast Asia [13,14] and Europe [15], which were already at this resolution or higher (at about 12.5 km over Europe). These new high resolution simulations will provide additional climate simulations over regions especially with few ensemble members e.g., over Central Asia [16] and Central America [17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of New CORDEX Simulations Using an Updated Köppen–Trewartha Climate Classification

et al. 2019

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A new ensemble of climate and climate change simulations covering all major inhabited regions with a spatial resolution of about 25 km, from the WCRP CORDEX COmmon Regional Experiment (CORE) Framework, has been established in support of the growing demands for climate services. The main objective of this study is to assess the quality of the simulated climate and its fitness for climate change projections by REMO (REMO2015), a regional climate model of Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) and one of the RCMs used in the CORDEX-CORE Framework. The CORDEX-CORE REMO2015 simulations were driven by the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis and the simulations were evaluated in terms of biases and skill scores over ten CORDEX Domains against the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) TS version 4.02, from 1981 to 2010, according to the regions defined by the Köppen–Trewartha (K–T) Climate Classification types. The REMO simulations have a relatively low mean annual temperature bias (about ± 0.5 K) with low spatial standard deviation (about ± 1.5 K) in the European, African, North and Central American, and Southeast Asian domains. The relative mean annual precipitation biases of REMO are below ± 50 % in most domains; however, spatial standard deviation varies from ± 30 % to ± 200 %. The REMO results simulated most climate types relatively well with lowest biases and highest skill score found in the boreal, temperate, and subtropical regions. In dry and polar regions, the REMO results simulated a relatively high annual biases of precipitation and temperature and low skill. Biases were traced to: missing or misrepresented processes, observational uncertainty, and uncertainties due to input boundary forcing.

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“…This includes the modification of convective scheme based on Bechtold-Kain-Fritsch scheme (Bechtold et al, 2001) with revised calculation of convective available potential energy (CAPE) profile according to Jiao and Jones (2008) , and the introduction of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) scheme (Lenderink and Holtslag, 2004) . The RCA4 model has been applied in many regions worldwide, among them Europe Kotlarski et al, 2015) , the Arctic (Berg et al, 2013;Koenigk et al, 2015;Zhang et al, 2014) , Africa (Nikulin et al, 2018;Wu et al, 2016) , South America (Collazo et al, 2018;Wu et al, 2017) , South-East (Tangang et al, 2018) and South Asia (Iqbal et al, 2017) .…”

Section: Rca4mentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of RCM formulation and resolution on simulated precipitation in Africa

Nikulin

Kjellström

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. We investigate the impact of model formulation and horizontal resolution on the ability of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to simulate precipitation in Africa. Two RCMs – SMHI-RCA4 and HCLIM38-ALADIN are utilized for downscaling the ERA-Interim reanalysis over Africa at four different resolutions: 25, 50, 100 and 200 km. Additionally to the two RCMs, two different configurations of the same RCA4 are used. Contrasting different RCMs, configurations and resolutions it is found that model formulation has the primary control over many aspects of the precipitation climatology in Africa. Patterns of spatial biases in seasonal mean precipitation are mostly defined by model formulation while the magnitude of the biases is controlled by resolution. In a similar way, the phase of the diurnal cycle is completely controlled by model formulation (convection scheme) while its amplitude is a function of resolution. Although higher resolution in many cases leads to smaller biases in the time mean climate, the impact of higher resolution is mixed. An improvement in one region/season (e.g. reduction of dry biases) often corresponds to a deterioration in another region/season (e.g. amplification of wet biases). The experiments confirm a pronounced and well known impact of higher resolution – a more realistic distribution of daily precipitation. Even if the time-mean climate is not always greatly sensitive to resolution, what the time-mean climate is made up of, higher order statistics, is sensitive. Therefore, the realism of the simulated precipitation increases as resolution increases. Our results show that improvements in the ability of RCMs to simulate precipitation in Africa compared to their driving reanalysis in many cases are simply related to model formulation and not necessarily to higher resolution. Such model formulation related improvements are strongly model dependent and in general cannot be considered as an added value of downscaling.

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Future changes in annual precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia under global warming of 2°C

Cited by 70 publications

References 13 publications

Risks of precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia: does 1.5 °C or 2 °C global warming make a difference?

Risks of precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia: does 1.5 °C or 2 °C global warming make a difference?

Evaluation of New CORDEX Simulations Using an Updated Köppen–Trewartha Climate Classification

The impact of RCM formulation and resolution on simulated precipitation in Africa

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