Future change in wintertime atmospheric blocking simulated using a 20‐km‐mesh atmospheric global circulation model

Matsueda, Mio; Mizuta, Ryo; Kusunoki, Shoji

doi:10.1029/2009jd011919

Cited by 107 publications

(145 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…While the decrease is rather weak, it is found in about half of the models (see also Figure S5). This result is in agreement with previous findings [Matsueda et al, 2009;Sillmann and Croci-Maspoli, 2009;Barnes et al, 2012].…”

Section: Future Changessupporting

confidence: 83%

“…They however found no evidence in blocking duration change. While a similar frequency change is also found in model sensitivity tests [Matsueda et al 2009;Sillmann and Croci-Maspoli, 2009], different studies show slightly different results in duration change. For example, Sillmann and Croci-Maspoli [2009] showed a possible increase in maximum blocking duration over the Euro-Atlantic region, whereas Matsueda et al [2009] showed a possible reduction in long-lived blocking events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 58%

“…Matsueda et al [2009] also indicated that the PA blocking frequency could be overestimated in a highresolution model integration. However, no systematic relationship between PA blocking bias and model resolution is observed throughout the models ( Figure S1).…”

Section: Blocking Climatologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is well known that high-frequency eddy forcing, which is one of the most important maintenance mechanisms of blocking highs [e. g., Shutts, 1983;Nakamura et al, 1997], is very sensitive to the model resolution. Matsueda et al, [2009], for instance, presented more accurate EA blocking climatology in a higher resolution model integration. However, a direct comparison between IPSL-CM5A-MR and IPSL-CM5A-LR, whose difference is only model resolution (Table 1), shows a negligible difference in EA blocking frequency (Figures S1c-S1d).…”

Section: Blocking Climatologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is however well documented that climate models often underestimate Northern Hemisphere (NH) blocking frequency, especially over the North Atlantic and Europe [e.g., D'Andrea et al, 1998, Doblas-Reyes et al, 2002, Scaife et al, 2010, Barriopedro et al, 2010a. While detailed causality is still an active area of research, this underestimation has been attributed to the limited model resolution, misrepresentation of surface boundary conditions, and uncertainties in physical parameterizations that lead to the biases in the time-mean flow and high-frequency eddies [e.g., Matsueda et al, 2009, Scaife et al, 2010, Scaife et al, 2011.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency and duration in the CMIP5 models

2013

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[1] Northern Hemisphere (NH) blocking climatology is examined using a subset of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Both historical and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 integrations are analyzed to evaluate the performance of the CMIP5 models and to identify possible changes in NH blocking frequency and duration in a warmer climate. Comparison with reanalysis data reveals that CMIP5 models can reproduce the NH blocking climatology reasonably well, although the frequency of Euro-Atlantic blockings, particularly those with relatively short duration, is significantly underestimated during the cold season. In most models, overestimation of the Pacific blocking frequency is also evident for all durations throughout the year. In comparison to historical integrations, RCP 8.5 integrations show significant decreases in blocking frequency over both the North Pacific and north Atlantic regions, with a hint of increasing blocking frequency over western Russia. However, there is no noticeable change in the duration of individual blocking events for all durations.

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Section: Future Changessupporting

confidence: 83%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 58%

Section: Blocking Climatologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Blocking Climatologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency and duration in the CMIP5 models

2013

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Eurasian winter cooling in the warming hiatus of 1998–2012

Stevens

Marotzke

2015

Geophysical Research Letters

123

101

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We investigate the relative magnitudes of the contributions of surface temperature trends from different latitude bands to the recent warming hiatus. We confirm from five different global data sets that the global‐mean surface temperature trend in the period 1998–2012 is strongly influenced by a pronounced Eurasian winter cooling trend. To understand the drivers of this winter cooling trend, we perform three 20‐member ensembles of simulations with different prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice in the atmospheric model ECHAM6. Our experimental results suggest that the Arctic sea ice loss does not drive systematic changes in the Northern Hemisphere large‐scale circulation in the past decades. The observed Eurasian winter cooling trend over 1998–2012 arises essentially from atmospheric internal variability and constitutes an extreme climate event. However, the observed reduction in Arctic sea ice enhances the variability of Eurasian winter climate and thus increases the probability of an extreme Eurasian winter cooling trend.

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Idealized climate change simulations with a high‐resolution physical model: HadGEM3‐GC2

Senior

Andrews

Burton

et al. 2016

J Adv Model Earth Syst

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Idealized climate change simulations with a new physical climate model, HadGEM3-GC2 fromThe Met Office Hadley Centre are presented and contrasted with the earlier MOHC model, HadGEM2-ES. The role of atmospheric resolution is also investigated. The Transient Climate Response (TCR) is 1.9 K/2.1 K at N216/N96 and Effective Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is 3.1 K/3.2 K at N216/N96. These are substantially lower than HadGEM2-ES (TCR: 2.5 K; ECS: 4.6 K) arising from a combination of changes in the size of climate feedbacks. While the change in the net cloud feedback between HadGEM3 and HadGEM2 is relatively small, there is a change in sign of its longwave and a strengthening of its shortwave components. At a global scale, there is little impact of the increase in atmospheric resolution on the future climate change signal and even at a broad regional scale, many features are robust including tropical rainfall changes, however, there are some significant exceptions. For the North Atlantic and western Europe, the tripolar pattern of winter storm changes found in most CMIP5 models is little impacted by resolution but for the most intense storms, there is a larger percentage increase in number at higher resolution than at lower resolution. Arctic sea-ice sensitivity shows a larger dependence on resolution than on atmospheric physics.

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Future change in wintertime atmospheric blocking simulated using a 20‐km‐mesh atmospheric global circulation model

Cited by 107 publications

References 20 publications

Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency and duration in the CMIP5 models

Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency and duration in the CMIP5 models

Eurasian winter cooling in the warming hiatus of 1998–2012

Idealized climate change simulations with a high‐resolution physical model: HadGEM3‐GC2

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