Future burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Chile: a multistate life table modeling study

Abstract

Background Previous studies have quantified the current burden of diseases attributable to overweight in Chile. However, no study has estimated the attributable burden of overweight in the future. Herein, we estimated the potential impact of different trajectories in the prevalence of overweight on the incidence and mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Chilean adults from 2019 to 2030. Methods A multistate life table modelling was used to estimate the business-as-usual (BAU: if the current rate of increase in BMI persist through the next 11 years; i.e., 0.4% per year from 2003 to 2017) and three counterfactual scenarios (1: the increase rate of overweight is reduced by half; 2: maintanance of the current prevalence of overweight; 3: the prevalence of overweight is reduced by 6.7%) over a 11-year simulation period for burden of NCDs attributable to overweight in Chilean adults aged 20 to 80 years. The model inputs included nationally representative data of body mass index, national official demographic records, NCDs from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019, and relative risks from a published meta-analysis. Results If the current trends of increase in overweight are maintained in Chile, approximately, 669 thousand cases and 117 thousand deaths from NCDs will occur from 2020 to 2030. In case the increase rate of overweight is reduced by half during this period, around 7 thousand cases and 1.4 thousand deaths from NCDs would be prevented, while achieving no increase in the prevalence of overweight would avert 10 thousand cases and 2 thousand deaths. In the optimistic scenario of reducing the prevalence of overweight by 6.7% until 2030, approximately 25 thousand cases and 5 thousand deaths from NCDs would be prevented. Conclusion We estimated that the number of NCDs cases and deaths that could be avoided by decreasing the prevalence of overweight in Chilean adults. Preventive programs aimed to reduce overweight may have a high impact on the future burden of NCDs in Chile.

The burden and treatment of non-communicable diseases among healthcare workers in sub-Saharan Africa: a multi-country cross-sectional study

“…Apart from non-modifiable risk factors such as age and sex, BMI was found to be significantly associated with self-reported hypertension and chronic disease across all study sites. BMI is a known risk factor also from other settings, to which death and DALYs from NCDs can be largely attributed ( 43 , 44 ). HCWs in Africa are prone to the increasing “obesogenic” environment that is attributable to less physical activity and increasing consumption of calorie-dense foods, especially in urban areas ( 19 ).…”

Chile passed tough measures to combat an obesity epidemic, so why does it still have an obesity problem?

“…Even the possibility of stasis for Chile is a scary prognosis. If the country’s obesity rate climbs at its current rate between 2020 and 2030, about 117 000 Chileans will die from obesity related non-communicable diseases, a 2023 study by Chilean researchers calculated 10. And early indications show that the Chilean obesity rate has not slowed, and might have increased.…”