Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models

Abstract

The Arctic is very susceptible to global climate change. Its surface air temperature (SAT) is warming at a rate 2-4 times higher than the global average starting from the 1970s (Bekryaev et al., 2010;Holland & Bitz, 2003;Rantanen et al., 2022;Serreze & Barry, 2011). The phenomenon of Arctic amplification has been found not only in historical observations and climate model projection simulations, but also in proxy reconstructions of paleo climate changes (Pithan & Mauritsen, 2014;Renssen et al., 2009). Warming amplification has also been detected in the ocean component of the Arctic based on analysis of climate models (Shu et al., 2022). The sea ice decay associated with Arctic warming is a crucial indicator of both Arctic and global climate changes (Notz & Stroeve, 2016;Polyakov et al., 2010;Shu et al., 2022). Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) in September has halved since the late 1970s (Perovich et al., 2017) and the location of the winter sea ice edge has also considerably retreated, potentially affecting weather and climate across the Northern Hemisphere (

Discrepancies in temporal pCO2 variability from Earth System Models and pCO2-products related to high-latitude mixed layer dynamics and equatorial upwelling

“…In all biomes, KPPand TKE-models simulate a stronger warming (TKE-models especially in NH-HL) compared to to PP-and other models (Fig.A3). This is in line withPan et al (2023), who show that TKE-models, i.e. ESMs that utilize the NEMO model for the ocean, exhibit a larger warming and stronger MLD response through climate change, compared to non-NEMO models.…”

The Mixed Layer Depth in the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP): Impact of Resolving Mesoscale Eddies

“…For reliable projections of the future climate, the mixed layer depth and its variability need to be well represented in numerical models (Semmler et al, 2021), but it is not the case presently (Belcher et al, 2012;Fox-Kemper et al, 2021;Q. Li et al, 2019;Pan et al, 2023;Sallée et al, 2013). Analysis of the coupled Model Intercomparison projects (CMIP) have revealed systematic 70 biases: mixed layers were found too shallow in summer in CMIP5 (C. J.…”

Role of Atlantification in Enhanced Primary Productivity in the Barents Sea

“…In the present investigation, we analyzed the ocean heat transport (HT) traversing the BSO employing a methodology based on an extant research framework (Arthun et al., 2019; Pan et al., 2023; Shu et al., 2022). The HT through BSO is calculated using monthly ocean temperature and currents as: $$$\text{HT}(t)={\rho }_{0}{c}_{p}\underset{S}{\int }U\,(t,y,z)\cdot \left(T(t,y,z)-{T}_{\text{ref}}\right)\,\text{dS}$$$ where ρ 0 is the density of sea water, c p is the specific heat capacity of heat water, U is the ocean velocity perpendicular to the section, T is the ocean temperature and T ref is reference temperature set to 0℃ (as done in e.g., Arthun et al., 2012, 2019; Pan et al., 2023). Here, t , y , z is the dimension variables corresponding to time, latitude, and depth respectively.…”

“…In the present investigation, we analyzed the ocean heat transport (HT) traversing the BSO employing a methodology based on an extant research framework (Arthun et al, 2019;Pan et al, 2023;Shu et al, 2022). The HT through BSO is calculated using monthly ocean temperature and currents as:…”