Funding global health product R&amp;D: the Portfolio-To-Impact Model (P2I), a new tool for modelling the impact of different research portfolios

Terry, Robert F; Yamey, Gavin; Miyazaki-Krause, Ryoko; Gunn, Alexander; Reeder, John C.

doi:10.12688/gatesopenres.12816.2

Cited by 16 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 7 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In this section, we describe the four key steps in this analysis, which are summarized in Figure 1. We do not describe the development of the first version of the P2I tool itself (P2I version 1, or P2I v.1), because this has been previously published 1 . The development of a second version of the P2I tool, called P2I version 2 (P2I v.2), has also been previously described 2 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the introduction, we have now added: "We used the P2I tool because, to the best of our knowledge, it is the first publicly available comprehensive portfolio model that includes data on cost, success rate, and cycle time per phase for various product types based on data from a very large number of previous product development candidates (over 25,000) 1 . The P2I tool is thus complementary to other available tools that can help guide prioritization in vaccine development, such as the multi-stakeholder Vaccine Innovation Prioritization Strategy and Total Systems Effectiveness Framework.…”

Section: Data Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) recently developed a new modelling tool, called Portfolio-to-Impact (P2I), that allows users to model the impact of different research portfolios 1 . The P2I tool can be used to estimate the costs of moving a portfolio of candidate products for poverty-related and neglected diseases (PRNDs) through the pipeline and the likely launches that would result.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Pipeline analysis of a vaccine candidate portfolio for diseases of poverty using the Portfolio-To-Impact modelling tool

et al. 2019

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: The Portfolio-To-Impact (P2I) P2I model is a recently developed product portfolio tool that enables users to estimate the funding needs to move a portfolio of candidate health products, such as vaccines and drugs, along the product development path from late stage preclinical to phase III clinical trials, as well as potential product launches over time. In this study we describe the use of this tool for analysing the vaccine portfolio of the European Vaccine Initiative (EVI). This portfolio includes vaccine candidates for various diseases of poverty and emerging infectious diseases at different stages of development. Methods: Portfolio analyses were conducted using the existing assumptions integrated in the P2I tool, as well as modified assumptions for costs, cycle times, and probabilities of success based on EVI’s own internal data related to vaccine development. Results: According to the P2I tool, the total estimated cost to move the 18 candidates currently in the EVI portfolio along the pipeline to launch would be about US $470 million, and there would be 0.69 cumulative expected launches during the period 2019-2031. Running of the model using EVI-internal parameters resulted in a significant increase in the expected product launches. Conclusions: The P2I tool's underlying assumptions could not be tested in our study due to lack of data available. Nevertheless, we expect that the accelerated clinical testing of vaccines (and drugs) based on the use of controlled human infection models that are increasingly available, as well as the accelerated approval by regulatory authorities that exists for example for serious conditions, will speed up product development and result in significant cost reduction. Project findings as well as potential future modifications of the P2I tool are discussed with the aim to improve the underlying methodology of the P2I model.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Pipeline analysis of a vaccine candidate portfolio for diseases of poverty using the Portfolio-To-Impact modelling tool

et al. 2019

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This estimate is informed by a recent study by Young and colleagues 36 that examined the current pipeline of candidate products for neglected diseases using a financial modeling tool, the Portfolio-to-Impact (P2I) tool. 37 The study estimated the costs to move these candidates through the pipeline, the likely launches by 2030, and the needed products likely to still be "missing" by 2030 (Box 1, Table 3).…”

Section: The Price Tag For Global Functionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Financing Global Common Goods for Health: When the World is a Country

Yamey

Jamison

Hanssen

et al. 2019

Health Systems & Reform

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Global functions" of health cooperation refer to those activities that go beyond the boundaries of individual nations to address transnational issues. This paper begins by presenting a taxonomy of global functions and laying out the key value propositions of investing in such functions. Next, it examines the current funding flows to global functions and the estimated price tag, which is large. Given that existing financing mechanisms have not closed the gap, it then proposes a suite of options for directing additional funding to global functions and discusses the governance of this additional funding. These options are organized into resource mobilization mechanisms, pooling approaches, and strategic purchasing of global functions. Given its legitimacy, convening power, and role in setting global norms and standards, the World Health Organization (WHO) is uniquely placed among global health organizations to provide the overarching governance of global functions. Therefore, the paper includes an assessment of WHO's financial situation. Finally, the paper concludes with reflections on the future of aid for health and its role in supporting global functions. The concluding section also summarizes a set of key priorities in financing global functions for health. INTRODUCTION: THE PRICE TAG FOR CRITICAL GLOBAL FUNCTIONS On December 3, 2013, The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) concluded its report, Global Health 2035: A World Converging within a Generation 1 with a "wake-up call" to the international community. The CIH stated: "The global health system as it is presently configured is not directing its financing to functions that need strengthening if we are to achieve dramatic health gains by 2035." 1 The functions or activities that needed strengthening, argued the Keywords: common goods for health, global public goods for health, research and development

show abstract

“…Based on the results of this review, we estimated the costs to move these candidates through the pipeline, the likely launches, and the “priority” health technologies that would be “missing” under the status quo. To do this, we used an adaptation of a financial tool—the Portfolio to Impact (P2I) model—developed by TDR, the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases, for the World Health Organization 11 , 12 . We made the adaptations of the P2I tool ourselves, resulting in P2I version 2 (P2I v.2); adaptations included adding more product types (e.g., vector control products) and modifying some of the tool’s underlying assumptions based on additional data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing new health technologies for neglected diseases: a pipeline portfolio review and cost model

Young¹,

Bekele²,

Gunn³

et al. 2020

Gates Open Res

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: Funding for neglected disease product development fell from 2009-2015, other than a brief injection of Ebola funding. One impediment to mobilizing resources is a lack of information on product candidates, the estimated costs to move them through the pipeline, and the likelihood of specific launches. This study aimed to help fill these information gaps. Methods: We conducted a pipeline portfolio review to identify current candidates for 35 neglected diseases. Using an adapted version of the Portfolio to Impact financial modelling tool, we estimated the costs to move these candidates through the pipeline over the next decade and the likely launches. Since the current pipeline is unlikely to yield several critical products, we estimated the costs to develop a set of priority “missing” products. Results: We found 685 neglected disease product candidates as of August 31, 2017; 538 candidates met inclusion criteria for input into the model. It would cost about $16.3 billion (range $13.4-19.8B) to move these candidates through the pipeline, with three-quarters of the costs incurred in the first 5 years, resulting in about 128 (89-160) expected product launches. Based on the current pipeline, there would be few launches of complex new chemical entities; launches of highly efficacious HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria vaccines would be unlikely. Estimated additional costs to launch one of each of 18 key missing products are $13.6B assuming lowest product complexity or $21.8B assuming highest complexity ($8.1B-36.6B). Over the next 5 years, total estimated costs to move current candidates through the pipeline and develop these 18 missing products would be around $4.5B (low complexity missing products) or $5.8B/year (high complexity missing products). Conclusions: Since current annual global spending on product development is about $3B, this study suggests the annual funding gap over the next 5 years is at least $1.5-2.8B.

show abstract

Funding global health product R&D: the Portfolio-To-Impact Model (P2I), a new tool for modelling the impact of different research portfolios

Cited by 16 publications

References 7 publications

Pipeline analysis of a vaccine candidate portfolio for diseases of poverty using the Portfolio-To-Impact modelling tool

Pipeline analysis of a vaccine candidate portfolio for diseases of poverty using the Portfolio-To-Impact modelling tool

Financing Global Common Goods for Health: When the World is a Country

Developing new health technologies for neglected diseases: a pipeline portfolio review and cost model

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About