Fuel-related issues concerning the future of aviation

Abstract

The paper discusses some major fuel-related issues which will influence the development of aviation over the next 50 years. Provided that global economic development is not halted by worldscale war or crisis, the demand for civil air transport is likely to continue to expand. The consequent rising requirement for aviation fuel is considered in relation to the projection that the total oil extraction rate from relatively accessible fields will reach a peak and then decline. The fuel options for aviation, against such a scenario, are explored. It is concluded that if the aviation demand cannot be met economically from conventional oilfield sources, supplementation by kerosene-like fuel synthesized from other feedstocks is much more likely, in the timeframe considered, than the radical step of a move to liquid hydrogen. The latter could be delayed until much later unless necessitated by constraints on carbon emissions. Other issues relating to aero-engine emissions are discussed, including the present uncertainties regarding the environmental significance of injection into the atmosphere at aircraft operating altitudes. The implications of restricting operations to the troposphere, to avoid the lower mixing rates of the stratosphere, are considered briefly.

Kinetic modelling of the ignition delays in monomethylhydrazine/hydrogen/oxygen/argon gaseous mixtures

“…The prospects for new propellant combinations are an important aspect of research in the aerospace field [1,2]. The introduction of promoters (or inhibitors) allows variation of the ignition delays and the creation of fuel systems suitable for use in real engines [3]. The experimental and numerical results presented here can be of interest to the development of some hypersonic aircraft since hydrogen is a promising fuel in that field [4].…”

The compatibility of potential bioderived fuels with Jet A-1 aviation kerosene

“…These include the need for a high energy density to maximise range, good atomisation, rapid evaporation, an ability to be relit at altitude though a low explosive risk on the ground, they must have a suitably low viscosity, an extremely low freezing point, good chemical stability, be reasonably non-toxic and be widely available while being economically competitive with current Jet A-1 fuels [3][4][5][6]. For this reason only a small selection of alternative fuels are currently available.…”

Measures of Societal Risk and Their Potential Use in Civil Aviation

“…7 are very sparse: they include only seven airport‐based collisions, of which only one was fatal; and of the midair collisions only one (with 13 fatalities) involved more than five fatalities. We have no reason to suppose that collisions with more than five fatalities will not occur in the future, yet the data provide no guidance on this; indeed, simple reflection suggests that a significant RPT disaster is probable within the next few decades if passenger transport activity continues to increase (e.g., assuming no limitation due to exhaustion of fuel supplies; see Reference 3).…”