Fuel Prices and Road Deaths in Australia

Burke, Paul J.; Teame, Ataklti

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3134928

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Any effects on economic expectations are in part controlled for by the stock market price index variable. The approach of instrumenting the local gasoline price with the world crude oil price has been used in previous studies (Burke andNishitateno 2013, 2015;Burke and Teame 2018;Best and Burke 2019).…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most have found that people choose to reduce driving or switch to more fuel-efficient vehicles to save fuel when fuel prices increase (Dahl 1979;Dahl and Sterner 1991;Goodwin et al 2004;Gillingham 2011;Li et al 2012;Gillingham and Munk-Nielsen 2019). A negative relationship between fuel prices and road fatalities has been found for both Australia and elsewhere (Grabowski and Morrisey 2004;Wilson et al 2009;Chi et al 2010;Burke 2014;Burke and Nishitateno 2015;Burke and Teame 2018;Best and Burke 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Effect of Fuel Prices on Traffic Flows: Evidence from New South Wales

Zhang

Burke

2020

SSRN Journal

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Understanding how traffic flows respond to fuel price changes is useful for traffic management. This study uses a dataset of 11.9 million hourly observations from 118 traffic count stations over 2010-2017 to investigate the relationship between the gasoline price and traffic flows in the state of New South Wales, Australia. The findings suggest that higher gasoline prices reduce traffic flows, with an average effect size of -0.04 in the hourly estimates. The elasticity is particularly pronounced during off-peak periods, both on weekdays (-0.10) and weekends (-0.07). In contrast, a positive effect of gasoline prices on traffic flows is observed for peak periods on weekdays (0.06). Evidence is also obtained that afternoon peak-hour speeds are faster when gasoline prices are higher, consistent with a lowering of traffic density. The research also finds a negative price elasticity of gasoline demand and that people are more likely to use public transport when gasoline prices are higher. The findings suggest that fuel excise plays a role in both reducing overall road dependence and alleviating the severity of some peak-hour traffic jams.

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Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Fuel Prices on Traffic Flows: Evidence from New South Wales

Zhang

Burke

2020

SSRN Journal

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Modelling New Zealand Road Deaths

Morrison¹,

Albuquerque²

2021

JRS

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New Zealand is developing an integrated road safety intervention logic model. This paper describes a core component of this wider strategic research carried out in 2018: a baseline model that extrapolates New Zealand road deaths to 2025. The baseline will provide context to what Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency is trying to achieve. It offers a way of understanding what impact interventions have in acting with and against external influences affecting road deaths and serious trauma. The baseline model considers autonomous change at a macro level given social and economic factors that influence road deaths. Identifying and testing relationships and modelling these explanatory variables clarifies the effect of interventions. Time-series forecasting begins by carefully collecting and rigorously analysing sequences of discrete-time data, then developing an appropriate model to describe the inherent structure of the series. Successful time-series forecasting depends on fitting an appropriate model to the underlying time-series. Several time-series models were investigated in understanding road deaths in the New Zealand context. In the final modelling an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and two differing autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models were developed. A preferred model was identified. This ARDL model was used to project road deaths to 2025.

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Fuel Prices and Road Deaths in Australia

Cited by 2 publications

References 41 publications

The Effect of Fuel Prices on Traffic Flows: Evidence from New South Wales

The Effect of Fuel Prices on Traffic Flows: Evidence from New South Wales

Modelling New Zealand Road Deaths

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