From weather to ocean predictions: an historical viewpoint

Pinardi, Nadia; Cavaleri, Luigi; Coppini, Giovanni; Mey, P. De; Fratianni, Claudia; Huthnance, John M.; Lermusiaux, Pierre F. J.; Navarra, Antonio; Preller, Ruth H.; Tibaldi, S.

doi:10.1357/002224017821836789

Cited by 16 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 144 publications

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“…In the Mediterranean, the development of surface oil spill forecasting has been tightly connected to the implementation of a complex ocean analysis and prediction system for the Mediterranean Sea (Pinardi et al [14]) that includes hydrodynamics coupled with surface wave modeling and high-frequency atmospheric forecasts. The regional large-scale, several-kilometer-resolution operational forecasting system is given by the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (Le Traon et al [15]), and several national limited-area models at scales of a few kilometers are nested to provide mesoscale and/or coastal-scale resolved currents and waves in different sub-portions of the basin (Tintoré et al [16]).…”

Section: Mediterranean Seamentioning

confidence: 99%

Progress in Operational Modeling in Support of Oil Spill Response

Barker

Kourafalou

Beegle-Krause

et al. 2020

JMSE

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Following the 2010 Deepwater Horizon accident of a massive blow-out in the Gulf of Mexico, scientists from government, industry, and academia collaborated to advance oil spill modeling and share best practices in model algorithms, parameterizations, and application protocols. This synergy was greatly enhanced by research funded under the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI), a 10-year enterprise that allowed unprecedented collection of observations and data products, novel experiments, and international collaborations that focused on the Gulf of Mexico, but resulted in the generation of scientific findings and tools of broader value. Operational oil spill modeling greatly benefited from research during the GoMRI decade. This paper provides a comprehensive synthesis of the related scientific advances, remaining challenges, and future outlook. Two main modeling components are discussed: Ocean circulation and oil spill models, to provide details on all attributes that contribute to the success and limitations of the integrated oil spill forecasts. These forecasts are discussed in tandem with uncertainty factors and methods to mitigate them. The paper focuses on operational aspects of oil spill modeling and forecasting, including examples of international operational center practices, observational needs, communication protocols, and promising new methodologies.

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Section: Mediterranean Seamentioning

confidence: 99%

Progress in Operational Modeling in Support of Oil Spill Response

Barker

Kourafalou

Beegle-Krause

et al. 2020

JMSE

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“…Over the past 20 years oceanographic operational services have emerged and developed (Pinardi et al, 2017), and together with the sea state provide 10 days forecasts of the deep ocean state and long-term reanalyses. Ocean forecasting has been developed (Pinardi and Woods, 2002;Chassignet and Verron, 2006) under the scientific coordination and guidance of the Global Data Assimilation Experiment (Bell et al, 2009;Dombrowsky et al, 2009), which has now evolved into GODAE OceanPredict.…”

Section: Ocean Forecasting From the Global To The Regional Scalesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Joint IOC (of UNESCO) and WMO Collaborative Effort for Met-Ocean Services

et al. 2019

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Pinardi et al. Marine Monitoring to Services resulting from the observations and data management. Future developments should enhance coordination in these three program areas by considering the inclusion of new and emergent observing technologies, the interoperability of met-ocean data assembly centers and the establishment of efficient research to operations protocols, in addition to better fit-for-purpose customized services in both the public and private sectors.

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“…Relocatable forecasting was first developed in the 1980s and has since progressed (Robinson et al, 1986;Lermusiaux, 2007;De Dominicis et al, 2014;Trotta et al, 2016;Onken, 2017;Pinardi et al, 2017) to unstructured grid models (Oliveira et al, 2020), which can be implemented in a shallow water framework even if a fully baroclinic model is potentially available.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Relocatable Ocean Modeling Platform for Downscaling to Shelf-Coastal Areas to Support Disaster Risk Reduction

et al. 2021

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High-impact ocean weather events and climate extremes can have devastating effects on coastal zones and small islands. Marine Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) is a systematic approach to such events, through which the risk of disaster can be identified, assessed and reduced. This can be done by improving ocean and atmosphere prediction models, data assimilation for better initial conditions and developing an efficient and sustainable impact forecasting methodology for Early Warnings Systems. A common user request during disaster remediation actions is for high-resolution information, which can be derived from easily deployable numerical models nested into operational larger-scale ocean models. The Structured and Unstructured Relocatable Ocean Model for Forecasting (SURF) enables users to rapidly deploy a nested high-resolution numerical model into larger-scale ocean forecasts. Rapidly downscaling the currents, sea level, temperature, and salinity fields is critical in supporting emergency responses to extreme events and natural hazards in the world’s oceans. The most important requirement in a relocatable model is to ensure that the interpolation of low-resolution ocean model fields (analyses and reanalyses) and atmospheric forcing is tested for different model domains. The provision of continuous ocean circulation forecasts through the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) enables this testing. High-resolution SURF ocean circulation forecasts can be provided to specific application models such as oil spill fate and transport models, search and rescue trajectory models, and ship routing models requiring knowledge of meteo-oceanographic conditions. SURF was used to downscale CMEMS circulation analyses in four world ocean regions, and the high-resolution currents it can simulate for specific applications are examined. The SURF downscaled circulation fields show that the marine current resolutions affect the quality of the application models to be used for assessing disaster risks, particularly near coastal areas where the coastline geometry must be resolved through a numerical grid, and high-frequency coastal currents must be accurately simulated.

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From weather to ocean predictions: an historical viewpoint

Cited by 16 publications

References 144 publications

Progress in Operational Modeling in Support of Oil Spill Response

Progress in Operational Modeling in Support of Oil Spill Response

The Joint IOC (of UNESCO) and WMO Collaborative Effort for Met-Ocean Services

A Relocatable Ocean Modeling Platform for Downscaling to Shelf-Coastal Areas to Support Disaster Risk Reduction

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