From the web to the streets: internet and protests under authoritarian regimes

Abstract

This article systematically investigates the relationship between internet use and protests in authoritarian states and democracies. It argues that unlike in democracies, internet use has facilitated the occurrence of protests in authoritarian regimes, developing a theoretical rationale for this claim and substantiating it with robust empirical evidence. The article argues that whereas information could already flow relatively freely in democracies, the use of the internet has increased access to information in authoritarian regimes despite authoritarian attempts to control cyberspace. The article suggests this increased access to information positively affects protesting in authoritarian states via four complementary causal pathways: (1) by reducing the communication costs for oppositional movements; (2) by instigating attitudinal change; (3) decreasing the informational uncertainty for potential protesters; and (4) through the mobilizing effect of the spread of dramatic videos and images. These causal pathways are illustrated using anecdotal evidence from the Tunisian revolution (2010)(2011). The general claim that internet use has facilitated the occurrence of protests under authoritarian rule is systematically tested in a global quantitative study using country-year data from 1990 to 2013. Internet use increases the expected number of protests in authoritarian states as hypothesized. This effect remains robust across a number of model specifications.

“No Central Stage”: Telegram-based activity during the 2019 protests in Hong Kong

“…Jost and colleagues (2018) outline the following mechanisms: (1) social media facilitates the citizens' access to information that is relevant to protest coordination such as information about police presence, violence, arrests or possible medical and legal help; (2) social media help in spreading motivational and emotional messages regarding the protest. This is echoed by Ruijgrok (2017) who argues that in authoritarian regimes the internet contributes to protest actions through the following: (1) lowering coordination risks; (2) providing citizens with access to alternative information, thus affecting their attitudes; (3) removing information uncertainty for potential protestors; (4) facilitating the spread of graphic depictions of the protest in images and videos, which can be especially powerful for mobilization. Bennett and Segerberg (2012) have come up with the concept of "connective action" arguing that social media platforms have changed the logic of protest mobilization.…”

Social Media, Political Discussion, and Political Protest: A Case Study of the 2018 Political Protests in Iran

“…Most of the major arguments, however, contend that the Internet has strengthened participatory culture and democracy, but the volume of these effects seems to change under various political regimes. Unlike democratic governments where information circulated rather freely before the introduction of the Internet in their country, in authoritarian countries, despite all the efforts of these regimes to control cyberspace, the use of the Internet has made a major difference in their citizens' access to information (Ruijgrok, 2017). For this reason, it seems that the Internet and social media in authoritarian countries have a greater impact on the attitudes and activities of citizens in different political issues than in democracies.…”

What Is Beyond the Façade? Research Program of E-Participation in Non-Democracies

“…Это еще один повод задуматься, является ли он «технологией освобождения» [22] или инструментом авторитарного контроля [31]. Хотя э-участие и контролируется государством, для его дальнейшего развития нужен Интернет, а значит открываются возможности для мобилизации [66].…”