From Stalin to the Aliyev clan: 70 years of hindered autonomy in Nagorno‐Karabakh

Abstract

Despite Azerbaijan's 2020 military victory over Armenia and the forcible expulsion of all Armenian residents from Nagorno‐Karabakh in September 2023, the South Caucasus remains far away from lasting peace and stability. This article addresses the following puzzle: why did secessionism strengthen in Nagorno‐Karabakh despite enjoying autonomy for 70 years from 1923 to 1991? Drawing from the securitization theory and Brubaker's institutionalist nationalism approach, the article identifies three variables: the historical context of Soviet nationalities policies, Soviet Azerbaijan securitization policies; and the lingering Armenian fear of a possible new genocide. The consequences of precluded autonomy impaired any prospects for a peaceful settlement as the Second Karabakh War in 2020, a nine month economic blockade of Karabakh commencing in 2022 followed by the ethnic cleansing of all residents in 2023 demonstrate. The methodology followed in this research is a qualitative analysis based on document analysis and interviews with key stake holders. The conclusion summarizes the main research findings.